Low temperature map from Saturday morning, February 9, 2019 — Observed lows across the Northland this morning were roughly 20 to 35 degrees below normal for February 9, but yes I know it’s not as cold as it was a few weeks ago. Okay then…
Note: It’ll still be cold tonight across the Northland with lows ranging from around zero to 25 below, the coldest temperatures in far northern Minnesota.
Here’s my snowfall forecast for Sunday through Monday morning.
•Parts of the area can expect around 1 to 2 inches of snow with Sunday’s event, but there will be a few exceptions.
•One across far southern portions of northwest Wisconsin (Hayward Lakes area) where 2 to 4 inches of snow is possible.
•The other area will be along the North Shore of Lake Superior where lake effect/lake enhanced snow is possible from Duluth to Silver Bay with potential for 2 to 7 inches of snow by Monday morning, greatest amounts just N-NE of Duluth the way it looks now. Note: Ice coverage over Lake Superior may play a role on the amount of lake effect snow that could develop along the North Shore, and if this is the case, then snow totals would likely remain in the 1 to 3 inch range. Winter weather headlines may be needed for parts of the North Shore.
Winter weather advisory in effect Sunday for parts of southern Minnesota and central Wisconsin (Purple shaded area on map)
Link to road conditions
18z NAM-WRF model 2-9-19
1) A little bit of light snow will continue to affect parts of the Northland this evening, not expecting much snow, maybe a half inch in a few locations.
2) A larger swath of snow is forecast to move in from the southwest on Sunday. This snow should mostly affect east-central Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin, and portions of the North Shore of Lake Superior. Snow moves quickly off to the E-NE Sunday evening.
3) A few lake effect flurries are possible along the North Shore of Lake Superior Sunday morning, with lake effect snow bands possibly strengthening Sunday night-Monday morning along portions of the North Shore of Lake Superior. The threat for lake effect snow decreases Monday afternoon as warm air advection spreads into the area ahead of the next potential winter storm.
~67% of Lake Superior is covered by ice as of February 9, but there are areas with some open water, especially across the southern/eastern portions of the lake. Will be interesting to see what happens Sunday through Tuesday as winds become easterly which is a favorable direction for lake effect snow along the North Shore of Lake Superior, possibly as far south as Duluth, but will the amount of ice over the lake prevent much lake effect snow from developing? Will see what happens.
12z European ensemble model (EPS) 2-9-19
Our next potential winter storm comes on Tuesday as a potent mid/upper level trough (negatively tilted) swings through the upper Midwest while low pressure tracks northeast out of Missouri. It’s a similar setup to our last winter storm which hit us on Thursday, although the closed 500mb low is forecast to setup a little farther south compared to the last winter storm.
Should be a broad area of lift and moisture ahead of the trough and low to produce accumulating snow across northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin on Tuesday.
Note: About the only thing I’m seeing on the computer models that could keep most of the snow away from our area on Tuesday would be if the ridge off to our north/east ends up stronger and or farther southwest than what the models have been showing.
12z European ensemble model (EPS) 2-9-19
Greatest chance of snowfall 3 inches or greater on Tuesday covers areas of south-central and eastern Minnesota into central/southern Wisconsin, as well as for areas near Lake Superior. Lower chances of over 3 inches of snow across northern Minnesota.
Low Temperature Reports from Saturday morning, February 9, 2019
3 SE Cotton, MN: -46 F
Kabetogama, MN: -41 F
2 NNE Bigfork, MN: -38 F
International Falls, MN: -38 F
Babbitt, MN: -37 F
Embarrass, MN: -37 F
2 E Celina, MN: -37 F
Bigfork, MN: -36 F
Littlefork, MN: -35 F
Walker, MN: -34 F
3 N Butternut, WI: -33 F
Crane Lake, MN: -33 F
Cook, MN: -33 F
Ely, MN: -33 F
Orr, MN: -33 F
Cass Lake, MN: -32 F
Chisholm-Hibbing, MN: -32 F
Aitkin, MN: -31 F
Brainerd, MN: -30 F
2 ENE Oliver, WI: -29 F
4 W Clam Lake, WI: -28 F
3 WNW Twig, MN: -28 F
3 E Wright, MN: -28 F
Glidden, WI: -27 F
Moose Lake, MN: -27 F
Silver Bay, MN: -26 F
Grand Rapids, MN: -26 F
7 WNW Minong, WI: -26 F
Barnes, WI: -25 F
Bruno, MN: -25 F
Hinckley, MN: -24 F
4 SSE South Range, WI: -24 F
McGregor, MN: -24 F
1 W Isabella, MN: -24 F
Ashland, WI: -23 F
Hayward, WI: -23 F
2 WNW Duluth, MN: -23 F
Siren, WI: -23 F
Superior, WI (Airport) -22 F
1 ESE Esko, MN: -20 F
Two Harbors, MN: -20 F
1 NNW Cloquet, MN: -19 F
Duluth, MN (Airport) -19 F
Weather Tidbits for Duluth, Minnesota
•25 subzero nights so far this winter (since Dec 1) Average number of subzero nights during the winter (Dec 1 to Feb 28) is 34.
•Average temperature so far this winter (since Dec 1) 14.0 degrees, +1.6 degrees above normal.
•45.6 inches of snow so far this winter (since Dec 1) Around 4 inches above normal thru Feb 9.
Note: With over 15 inches of snow already this month, let’s take a look at the top 10 snowiest Februaries on record at Duluth, Minnesota.
15.4 inches of snow so far this month — Will need an additional 18.5 inches of snow to tie the snowiest February on record from 1939, and 18.6 inches to break it.
1) 33.9 inches set in 1939
2) 33.5 inches set in 1922
3) 32.1 inches set in 2001
4) 31.5 inches set in 1955
5) 29.5 inches set in 2014
6) 27.4 inches set in 1971
7) 24.6 inches set in 1948
8) 24.2 inches set in 2018
9: 23.4 inches set in 2006 and 2004
10: 23.3 inches set in 1979
Outlook for Duluth and Superior
Tonight — Light snow and flurries end before Midnight. Less than an inch of accumulation. Not as cold as this morning but still chilly! Low zero to 5 below. Wind becoming east to northeast around 10 mph.
Sunday — Mostly cloudy. A few flurries during the morning. Light snow developing during the afternoon. High 9 to 14. Wind east to northeast at 10 to 20 mph. Patchy blowing snow is possible.
Sunday night — Light snow early, then lake effect snow showers possible. Total snowfall accumulations by late Sunday night of 2 to 4 inches possible.
Duluth, Minnesota Climate Normals for February 10
Sunrise Sunday: 7:21 AM CST
Sunset Sunday: 5:26 PM CST