I didn’t make any changes to my snowfall forecast for tonight’s event.
*Still expecting around 2 to 4 inches of snow in Duluth by Monday morning.
*There is some potential for heavier lake effect snow bands to develop tonight into Monday morning which could impact portions of the North Shore of Lake Superior, and if this does happen, then a few locations along the North Shore could pick up around 4 to 7 inches of snow by Monday afternoon, if the lake effect doesn’t really develop, then snow totals would likely be in the 1 to 3 inch range.
*2 to 4 inches of snow by late this evening across far southern portions of northwest Wisconsin (Hayward Lakes area) where a winter weather advisory remains in effect until 10 PM this evening.
Link to road conditions
Wisconsin — https://511wi.gov/map
Goes-16 water vapor satellite loop from Sunday, February 10, 2019.
Today’s snow event continues to lift pretty quickly off to the E-NE as it moves through the upper Midwest and western Great Lakes.
Tuesday’s potential snow maker is moving into the northern/central Rockies this Sunday afternoon.
Winter storm watch (blue shaded area on map) for parts of east-central Minnesota and all of northwest Wisconsin from Monday evening through Tuesday evening.
Additional winter weather headlines may be needed a little farther west and north for Tuesday’s event, those would most likely be issued sometime on Monday.
Here’s my preliminary snowfall forecast for Monday night and Tuesday.
Note: The snowfall gradients shown on the map below could tighten up quite a bit, and may shift around as well during the next 24 hours so stay tuned for updates.
*8 to 12 inches of snow for most of northwest Wisconsin and far eastern Minnesota.
*5 to 8 inches of snow from around Grand Rapids and Aitkin to Hinckley, north to Duluth and Two Harbors.
*Winds could be quite strong on Tuesday, especially near Lake Superior with northeast winds possibly gusting to 25 to 35 mph — This could lead to areas of blowing and drifting snow.
*Around 3 to 5 inches of snow for Brainerd, Hibbing and Silver Bay.
*1 to 3 inches of snow across far northern Minnesota, including Bigfork, International Falls, Ely and Grand Marais.
18z NAM-WRF model 2-10-19
1) Light snow will continue to affect parts of northeast and east-central Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin this evening — The snow will taper off from west to east by mid or late evening.
2) Lake effect snow showers could persist through the night and into Monday morning along the North Shore of Lake Superior. Lake effect setup breaks down Monday afternoon as warm air advection moves in ahead of the next system.
3) That next system could spread a swath of snow into parts of the Northland starting early Tuesday morning, this snow would then continue through the day Tuesday before ending Tuesday night. Note: I do have some concerns on how the trough sets up and the track of the surface low as there looks to be a sharp cutoff from snow to no snow, right now that cutoff looks to setup over far northeast Minnesota, but we could see that cutoff setup farther south from what the computer models are showing, so this will be something to keep an eye on during the next 24 hours.
Temperature departure map for the week of February 3, 2019 — One of the reasons why it was so snowy around here last week was this temperature gradient that setup with arctic air farther west, milder air farther southeast, this led to an active storm track in between the arctic and milder airmasses.
Precipitation departure map for the week of February 3, 2019.
Temperature and Precipitation report for Duluth, Minnesota
February 3-9, 2019
High Temperatures/Departure from Normal
2/3: 28 F/+7 degrees above normal
2/4: 23 F/+2 degrees above normal
2/5: 16 F/-5 degrees below normal
2/6: 19 F/-3 degrees below normal
2/7: 19 F/-3 degrees below normal
2/8: 2 F/-20 degrees below normal
2/9: 8 F/-14 degrees below normal
Low Temperatures/Departure from Normal
2/3: 23 F/+20 degrees above normal
2/4: -3 F/-6 degrees below normal
2/5: -6 F/-9 degrees below normal
2/6: 14 F/+11 degrees above normal
2/7: -2 F/-6 degrees below normal
2/8: -11 F/-15 degrees below normal
2/9: -19 F/-23 degrees below normal
Note: Average temperature for the week of February 3: 7.9 degrees (-4.5 degrees below normal) Source: https://www.dnr.state.mn.us
Total precipitation: 0.66 inches
Normal: 0.16 inches
Departure: +0.50 inches above normal
State Average for Minnesota for the week of February 3
Temperature: 6.3 degrees
Departure: -7.5 degrees below normal
Precipitation: 0.57 inches
Departure: +0.43 inches above normal
…Climate Data for February 9, 2019…
International Falls, Minnesota
A new daily record low temperature set for February 9 with a low on Saturday of -38 degrees. The previous record low was -36 degrees set in 1909.
5th lowest maximum temperature on record for February 9 with a high on Saturday of -1 degree. The record cold high for February 9 is -12 degrees set in 1914.
2nd lowest maximum temperature on record for February 9 with a high on Saturday of 1 degree. The record cold high for February 9 is -5 degrees set in 1982.
2nd lowest minimum temperature on record for February 9 with a low on Saturday of -32 degrees. The record low for February 9 is -34 degrees set in 1975.
5th lowest minimum temperature on record for February 9 with a low on Saturday of -23 degrees. The record low for February 9 is -32 degrees last set in 1951.
Outlook for Duluth and Superior
•Tonight — Light snow this evening with lake effect snow showers possible overnight. Gusty east to northeast wind 10 to 20 mph, gusts to 30 mph. Areas of blowing and drifting snow. Low 6 to 11. Expect hazardous travel conditions tonight as roads will be snow covered and slippery with reduced visibilities due to a combination of falling and blowing snow. Total snowfall accumulations of 2 to 4 inches possible.
•Monday — Lake effect snow showers possible during the morning, otherwise mostly cloudy. Few peeks of sun possible. High 15 to 20. Wind east to northeast at 10 to 20 mph. Patchy blowing snow possible.
Duluth, Minnesota Climate Normals for February 11
Sunrise Monday: 7:19 AM CST
Sunset Monday: 5:27 PM CST