Low pressure over northern Texas late this Monday afternoon lifts northeast to lower Michigan by Tuesday evening while a strong mid-upper level trough over the northern Rockies and northern Plains moves east and becomes negatively tilted over the upper Midwest and Great Lakes on Tuesday. Moisture plume south/east of that trough, with some of that moisture getting pulled northwest on Tuesday as the trough becomes negatively tilted.
Radar loop ending at 5:30 PM Monday, February 11.
Snow over North Dakota and Iowa will continue to lift to the north/east tonight, it will reach western-southern portions of the Northland mid evening or toward Midnight, then spread farther north/east after Midnight.
Here’s my updated snowfall forecast for the next snow event that will hit the Northland.
•9 to 12 inches from around Hayward to Ashland and points south/east.
•5 to 9 inches for the North Shore (Silver Bay to Two Harbors) also for Duluth, Superior, and the South Shore.
•3 to 5 inches for Hinckley, Moose Lake, Aitkin, Grand Rapids and Hibbing.
•1 to 3 inches farther west and north, Brainerd, Bigfork, Cook, Ely and Grand Marais areas.
•Around an inch for International Falls and in extreme northeast Minnesota.
Winter storm warning in pink (timing Midnight tonight to Midnight Tuesday night)
Winter weather advisory in purple (timing Midnight tonight to 9 PM Tuesday)
Link to road conditions
Wisconsin — https://511wi.gov/map
12z European ensemble model (EPS) 2-11-19
Our next winter storm will pass through the upper Midwest and Great Lakes on Tuesday as a potent mid/upper level trough takes on a negative tilt while low pressure tracks northeast out of the southern Plains to the eastern Great Lakes.
18z NAM-WRF model 2-11-19
1) Potential for some lake effect snow showers tonight along the North Shore of Lake Superior. A few spots could see around 1 to 2 inches of snow tonight.
2) Snow overspreads much of the Northland from south to north late tonight-Tuesday morning.
3) Snow tapers off from west to east Tuesday evening.
18z NAM-WRF model 2-11-19
Gusty northeast winds will be found near Lake Superior tonight and Tuesday with wind speeds of 15 to 25 mph, gusts possibly as high as 35 mph, this will lead to some blowing and drifting snow.
Winds shift to the north-northwest by late Tuesday afternoon/evening with gusts 15 to 25 mph.
Accumulated Snowfall (Percent of Mean) for February 1 through 10, 2019 — Yes we all know it’s been a snowy start to February in the Northland with snowfall totals this month running well above normal, roughly 3 to 5 times what we typically get during the first 10 days of the month. At the rate we’re going, the February snowfall record could be in jeopardy in Duluth
Goes-16 visible satellite image from February 11, 2019 — Around 72% of Lake Superior is covered by ice as of Monday morning, but there is a large area of open water covering the eastern part of the lake, while ice across the northern part of the lake doesn’t appear to be very thick per satellite imagery.
The thickest ice appears to be along the South Shore to the head of the lake and over the northwest corners of the lake.
Goes-16 visible satellite loop from Monday, February 11, 2019.
There’s our warmth/moisture source over the eastern part of Lake Superior. As east winds cross that open water it develops lake effect clouds and snow showers as it heads west over the big lake on those easterly winds.
Snowfall Reports for February 10-11, 2019
Note: Totals listed below are through Monday morning, February 11
2 SW Two Harbors, MN: 9.0 inch
1 E Silver Bay, MN: 8.2 inch
Finland, MN: 8.0 inch
7 NNW Two Harbors, MN: 8.0 inch
Two Harbors, MN: 7.6 inch
6 WNW Castle Danger, MN: 7.5 inch
2 ESE Duluth, MN: 7.0 inch
1 W Silver Bay, MN: 6.8 inch
2 WSW Lester Park, MN: 6.5 inch
3 NNW Butternut, WI: 6.5 inch
Duluth Airport: 6.5 inch
2 NW Duluth, MN: 6.1 inch
2 E Esko, MN: 6.1 inch
2 SSW Duluth, MN: 5.0 inch
3 WNW Clam Lake, MN: 4.7 inch
3 NNE Finland, MN: 4.5 inch
Wrenshall, MN: 4.1 inch
2 N Moquah, WI: 4.0 inch
Lester Park, MN: 3.5 inch
2 WNW Stone Lake, WI: 3.4 inch
2 SSW Bayfield, WI: 3.1 inch
Cloquet, MN: 3.0 inch
6 NE Hertel, WI: 3.0 inch
6 SW Webb Lake, WI: 2.9 inch
1 SSW Grantsburg, WI: 2.7 inch
3 E Payne, MN: 2.5 inch
Ashland, WI: 2.3 inch
2 ENE Holyoke, MN: 1.9 inch
1 WSW Maple, WI: 1.8 inch
3 ENE Wright, MN: 1.5 inch
7 SSW Grand Rapids, MN: 1.4 inch
3 E Cotton, MN: 1.0 inch
We’ve had some real fluffy snowfall events so far this month in Duluth, Minnesota
Check out some of these snow to liquid ratios
Feb 5: Snowfall of 3.5 inches. Precip: 0.15 inches. (Ratio of 23:1)
Feb 6: Snowfall of 2.8 inches. Precip: 0.17 inches. (Ratio of 17:1)
Feb 7: Snowfall of 7.9 inches. Precip: 0.29 inches. (Ratio of 27:1)
Feb 10: Snowfall of 4.8 inches. Precip: 0.12 inches. (Ratio of 40:1)
The two events that stand out are February 7 and 10, incredibly high snow to liquid ratios for this area. Typically will get ratios of around 10:1 or 15:1 in this area. So a lot of the snowfalls this month have had very little water content.
Duluth snow stats
February total thru 4 PM the 11th: 22.0 inches
Departure from normal: +17.5 inches above normal
Record snowiest February: 33.9 inches set in 1939. We need 12 more inches of snow to set a new record for snowiest February. I think the odds are pretty good that we break this record.
Outlook for Duluth and Superior
*Winter Weather Advisory* from Midnight tonight to 9 PM Tuesday
•Light snow showers, flurries and patchy freezing drizzle this evening with breezy northeast wind 10 to 20 mph, gusts to 30 mph. Areas of blowing snow.
•Snow intensity picks up overnight/Tuesday morning with snow expected through the day Tuesday. Northeast wind 15 to 20 mph, gusts to 30 mph. Areas of blowing snow. Expect difficult travel conditions on Tuesday.
•Snow tapers off Tuesday evening, but gusty north-northwest winds through the night with areas of blowing snow.
•Total snowfall storm accumulations of 5 to 9 inches possible.
•Temperatures tonight and Tuesday ranging from around 15 to 22 degrees.
Duluth, Minnesota Climate Normals for February 12
Sunrise Tuesday: 7:18 AM CST
Sunset Tuesday: 5:29 PM CST