12z European computer model (ECMWF) 2-16-19
Certainly looks like it could turn a little interesting (weather-wise) around here starting around the middle of the upcoming week (~Feb 20) Computer models have been showing a pattern consisting of a western trough and eastern ridge for several days now, but they lack agreement on individual storm tracks and intensity. A range of possibilities from turning very snowy once again to not much snow at all for the Northland depending on how the pattern sets up, and the tracks of low pressure systems coming out of the western U.S. Stay tuned as the weather pattern could go bonkers once again starting around the middle of next week.
18z NAM-WRF model 2-16-19
With east winds and a cold airmass in place, we could see a few lake effect snow showers affect portions of the North Shore of Lake Superior Sunday and Monday, this doesn’t look like it would be a big deal, however, given the extent of the ice that is covering Lake Superior.
Winter storm warnings and advisories in effect tonight and Sunday across parts of the Dakotas to southern Minnesota, eastern Nebraska and all of Iowa.
18z NAM-WRF model 2-16-19
Snow event on the way for southern Minnesota late tonight through Sunday evening with accumulations ranging from 2 to as much as 7 inches, greatest amounts south of Minneapolis.
Link to road conditions
Wisconsin — https://511wi.gov/map
12z European ensemble model (EPS) 2-16-19
Temperature anomaly forecast through March 3, 2019.
Blue, green and purple colors indicate below normal temperatures
Orange and red colors indicate above normal temperatures
The main takeaway from this forecast is that there are no signs of a major/prolonged warmup for the Northland showing up through the first few days of March. Note: Duluth, Minnesota hasn’t been at or above freezing (32 F) since January 8th!
Weather Synopsis for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin
Some mid and high level cloudiness covered our area today with some sun as well. There was even a flare up of lake effect fluff around the Duluth area this morning which didn’t amount to anything. Chilly temps continued today with highs in the teens to lower 20s.
A messy looking system showing up on Goes-16 water vapor satellite imagery across the northern Rockies and northern Plains late this Saturday afternoon. This system and its inverted surface trough will detour to the west/south of the Northland due to an area of high pressure off to our north, so if you want more snow you’ll have to head to southern Minnesota on Sunday because we won’t be seeing any in this area.
Partly to mostly cloudy skies will be found across the Northland tonight and Sunday.
Lows tonight ranging from the single digits above zero to around 20 below, coldest temps where skies are mostly clear tonight. Highs on Sunday should be similar to Saturday’s highs with values in the teens to lower 20s. Note: Winds will be a tad on the brisk side near Lake Superior on Sunday with northeast winds gusting to around 25 mph.
Duluth, Minnesota Climate Normals for February 17
Sunrise Sunday: 7:10 AM CST
Sunset Sunday: 5:36 PM CST