Active weather headlines as of 6 PM Tuesday, March 12, 2019
Green – Flood Watch
Red – Blizzard Warning
Pink – Winter Storm Warning
Blue – Winter Storm Watch
…Flood Watch for all of northeast and east-central Minnesota from Wednesday afternoon through Thursday evening, and for all of northwest Wisconsin from Wednesday afternoon through Friday morning…
…Flood Watch for Duluth from Wednesday afternoon through Thursday evening…
-Basement flooding (check your sump pumps)
-Ice backups on roofs
-Roof leaks due to ice dams
-The added weight of the rain-soaked snow on roofs may cause them to collapse especially on barns and outbuildings.
-Those living in areas prone to flooding should be prepared to take action should flooding develop.
Low pressure over southeast Colorado Wednesday morning (~980mb) moves into northern Kansas Wednesday evening (~973mb) This low moves across central Iowa Thursday, reaches central/northeast portions of Wisconsin by Thursday evening, as the low lifts NE out of Iowa it will slowly weaken with the central pressure ~990mb.
Could be a few isolated thunderstorms late Wednesday into Thursday over parts of far eastern Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin. No severe weather is expected this far north, but there could be some severe thunderstorms farther south in the dark green and yellow areas on the maps below.
Note: The atmosphere won’t be overly unstable in our area, but with mid level lapse rates of 6.0 to around 8.0 c/km at times combined with elevated instability to around 100-300 J/kg coupled with the intense forcing associated with the deep low to our SW, all these ingredients are enough to generate at least a risk of few thunderstorms late Wednesday into Thursday in eastern Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin.
Goes-16 water vapor satellite loop from Tuesday, March 12, 2019.
This storm already looks amazing on satellite imagery, and it should look even more amazing 24 hours from now.
Energy over the Pacific northwest will phase with the low currently over the southern Rockies forming a massive and intense surface low on Wednesday over Kansas.
18z NAM 3-12-19
Radar forecast for Wednesday and Thursday
Note: Yellow line on the images below represent the approximate location of the rain/snow line.
18z NAM-WRF model 3-12-19
Storm timeline for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin
•Tonight: Areas of drizzle and fog with scattered rain showers, the showers will be most numerous across parts of northwest Wisconsin.
•Wednesday: Areas of drizzle and fog. Rain becoming widespread from south to north across the Northland during the afternoon. Isolated thunderstorms possible, mainly over far eastern Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin.
•Wednesday night: Widespread rain decreasing to a few showers from south to north as a dry slot approaches later in the night. Fog and drizzle through the night.
•Thursday: Drizzle and fog during the morning. Precipitation becomes more widespread once again during the day as the main surface low approaches. Isolated thunderstorms possible in eastern Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin. Colder air wrapping in behind the surface low will cause the rain to change to snow with a brief wintry mix also possible — This changeover from rain to snow will advance west to east across the area Thursday afternoon/evening. Note: Model guidance shows the transition from rain to snow occurring in Duluth between 4-8 PM Thursday, but timing of this could change.
Note: Fog will be an issue across the entire Northland through Thursday morning. The fog could become dense at times with visibilities around a quarter mile or less. Dense Fog Advisories may be needed.
18z NAM-Nest model 3-12-19
This storm is going to be a doozy with the central pressure of the surface low deepening to around 970-973mb Wednesday afternoon/night over west-central Kansas, incredible!
Here’s a forecast of how this storm will look on satellite imagery from Wednesday morning through early Friday morning — A textbook March storm!
Temperature and Wind Forecast for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin
•Tonight: Lows in the low to mid 30s. Some locations could be around the freezing mark overnight/early Wednesday morning which could lead to some patchy freezing drizzle (icing) Winds south-southwest 5 to 15 mph.
•Wednesday: Highs in the upper 30s to lower 40s. Winds south, becoming east during the afternoon at 10 to 15 mph. Stronger wind gusts out of the east to around 25 mph developing later in the day near Lake Superior.
•Wednesday night: Lows in the lower 30s to around 40 degrees, warmest temps in parts of northwest Wisconsin. Winds east 10 to 20 mph with gusts to 35 mph near Lake Superior.
•Thursday: Highs ranging from the lower 30s in northern Minnesota to the mid 40s to around 50 degrees across southern portions of northwest Wisconsin including the Hayward Lakes area. Winds north/east across northern Minnesota and south over most of northwest Wisconsin.
Duluth, Minnesota Climate Normals for March 13
Sunrise Wednesday: 7:26 AM CDT
Sunset Wednesday: 7:11 PM CDT