/Issued 4:51 PM CDT, Thursday, March 14, 2019/
850mb temperatures from late Thursday afternoon
Goes-16 visible satellite loop from Thursday, March 14, 2019.
Powerful storm continues to lift northeast toward the upper Great Lakes today, although the surface low isn’t nearly as strong as it was 24 hours ago.
There’s been some major flooding going on in the Sioux Falls, South Dakota and Omaha, Nebraska National Weather Service coverage areas — Here’s a link to both their websites for additional information on the flooding down in those areas.
Sioux Falls — https://www.weather.gov/fsd/
Omaha — https://www.weather.gov/oax/
Locally in the Northland — A flood watch remains in effect until 1 AM Friday for all of northwest Wisconsin.
Link to road conditions
Note: Numerous roads in northwest Minnesota are closed due to ongoing blizzard conditions, while several roads in Wisconsin are closed due to flooding.
Wisconsin — https://511wi.gov/map#:Alerts
18z NAM-WRF model 3-14-19
Gusty northwest winds across the area through Friday. Sustained winds 10 to 20 mph, gusts 30 to around 40 mph.
12z European ensemble model (EPS) 3-14-19
Cooler weather (not terribly cold) the next few days, but there are signs showing up per long range model guidance for a significant thaw from the middle of next week through next weekend (~March 20-24) Could see daytime highs well into the 40s and even some 50s in northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin mid to late next week.
Note: The average date for the first 50 degree temperature at Duluth, Minnesota is March 18, and Duluth averages 3 days in the 50s in March. So far this March, zero days in the 50s, but that may change later next week.
Rainfall Reports from March 13-14, 2019
1 NW Beaver Bay, MN: 1.34 inch
4 W Grand Marais, MN: 1.33 inch
6 SSW Grand Rapids, MN: 1.15 inch
Brainerd, MN: 1.10 inch
Hovland, MN: 1.09 inch
2 SW Lester Park, MN: 1.05 inch
Grand Rapids, MN: 1.00 inch
5 E Hibbing, MN: 0.95 inch
Babbitt, MN: 0.92 inch
2 NE Duluth, MN: 0.91 inch
Cass Lake, MN: 0.88 inch
Walker, MN: 0.86 inch
1 ESE Duluth, MN: 0.83 inch
Cook, MN: 0.82 inch
Chisholm-Hibbing Airport: 0.82 inch
Two Harbors, MN: 0.81 inch
Floodwood, MN: 0.75 inch
Littlefork, MN: 0.74 inch
2 ENE Oliver, WI: 0.74 inch
3 SE Cotton, MN: 0.70 inch
Bayfield, WI: 0.66 inch
1 W Isabella, MN: 0.63 inch
Duluth Airport: 0.60 inch
9 N Bayfield, WI: 0.59 inch
1 ESE Esko, MN: 0.49 inch
Superior, WI: 0.44 inch
Ashland, WI: 0.40 inch
3 W Clam Lake, WI: 0.27 inch
Barnes, WI: 0.27 inch
Glidden, WI: 0.27 inch
Local Storm Reports for March 14, 2019
•11:45 AM: Flood — Pillager, MN (Cass County) Few streets covered with water.
•9:00 AM: Flood — 2 N Nisswa, MN (Crow Wing County) Water on shoulder of road on MN-371 due to snow-melt.
•9:00 AM: Flood — Silver Bay, MN (Lake County) Standing water 3 to 4 inches deep on Hays Circle.
…Climate Data for March 13, 2019…
A new record precipitation total set for March 13 with 1.10 inches of precipitation on Wednesday. Previous record was 0.55 inches set in 1977.
A new record precipitation total set for March 13 with 0.82 inches of precipitation on Wednesday. Previous record was 0.35 inches set in 1978.
International Falls, Minnesota
A new record precipitation total set for March 13 with 0.26 inches of precipitation on Wednesday. Previous record was 0.18 inches set in 2016.
2nd highest minimum temperature on record for March 13 with a low on Wednesday of 35 degrees. The record warm low temperature for March 13 is 44 degrees set in 1995.
4th highest minimum temperature on record for March 13 with a low on Wednesday of 35 degrees. The record warm low temperature for March 13 is 42 degrees set in 1995.
3rd highest precipitation total on record for March 13 with 0.55 inches of precipitation on Wednesday. The record precipitation total for March 13 is 1.74 inches set in 1917.
Weather Synopsis for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin
Low pressure of 990mb extended from central Wisconsin to central Lake Superior at 4 PM today. With the low now off to our east, cold air advection and increasing NW winds are spreading SE into the Northland. 850mb temperatures at 4 PM Thursday ranged from -7C at Bismarck, North Dakota to -4C at International Falls, Minnesota to +3C at Duluth, Minnesota. Highs today ranged from the mid 30s in north-central Minnesota to the upper 30s to middle 40s in eastern Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin with the warmest temps around the Hayward Lakes area.
There’s been lingering light rain, drizzle and fog across the area today with precipitation changing over to some snow across parts of northern Minnesota.
Tonight and Friday: The big weather stories will be the gusty winds and colder temperatures. Northwest winds 10 to 20 mph, gusts 30 to around 40 mph are possible. Cold air advection will continue tonight sending 850mb temperatures to -10 to -15C by daybreak, they won’t recover at all during the day with 850mb temps of around -15C Friday afternoon.
Lows tonight will be in the teens and 20s with highs Friday in the 20s to lower 30s. Note: This won’t be a bitterly cold airmass by any means, but normal highs in mid March are in the mid 30s so highs Friday will be around 5-8 degrees below normal.
Snow showers and flurries will be found across the area tonight into Friday morning, and through Friday afternoon along the South Shore in northwest Wisconsin where 1 to 3 inches of snow is possible. The rest of us could see a dusting of snow through Friday morning, maybe a few isolated 1 to 2 inch totals in northern Minnesota.
Flood Concerns — With the colder temps moving in, the snow melt which has kicked into high gear the last few days will come to an end with very little snow melt expected from Friday through Sunday. Now that we’ve added even more water to the snow pack thanks to the recent rainfall, this sets the stage for additional flooding next week once temperatures warm significantly which they may do mid to late next week.
Forecast for Duluth
.Tonight… Windy and cooler. Considerable cloudiness. Patchy drizzle this evening changing to flurries and light snow showers. Icy spots could develop on streets and sidewalks late tonight. Low 22 to 27. Wind northwest 15 to 25 mph with higher gusts.
.Friday… Blustery. Mostly cloudy, few peeks of sun. Some flurries possible early. High 27 to 32. Wind northwest 15 to 25 mph.
Normal temperatures for March 15
Sunrise Friday: 7:22 AM CDT
Sunset Friday: 7:14 PM CDT