12z European ensemble model 5-7-19
Another snow event on the way (Potentially)
•Here’s my updated snowfall forecast for the late Wednesday afternoon-evening through Thursday morning time frame.
•Computer models have been trending toward higher amounts of precipitation affecting our area, and some of this could fall in the form of snow as temperatures drop Wednesday evening.
•Snow that falls will be wet and slushy (lots of water content) with most of the accumulation occurring on grassy and elevated surfaces.
•Snow could also accumulate on roads, especially secondary roads Wednesday night.
•Visibilities could be reduced by the snow Wednesday night.
Gusty northeast winds near Lake Superior could cause patchy blowing snow Wednesday night with potential of 20 to 35 mph wind gusts out of the northeast Wednesday night.
Note: It’s possible that a few locations in the 1 to 4 inch zone could see more than 4 inches of snow, but confidence is low on that occurring.
•Winter weather headlines may be needed for some parts of the Northland.
12z European Computer model 5-7-19
Here we are into early May and yet we’re still talking about the potential of a rain-snow mix in northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin Wednesday (late afternoon) through Thursday morning.
18z NAM-WRF model 5-7-19
Radar forecast valid from 7 AM Wednesday to 1 PM Thursday.
Rain is forecast to spread north into the Northland during the day Wednesday. The combination of strong forcing and dynamic cooling might be enough to cause temperatures to fall enough for the rain to mix with and change to snow in some parts of the area Wednesday evening through Thursday morning.
Rain in green; snow in blue.
18z NAM 5-7-19
Precipitable water or PWAT forecast for Wednesday through 7 AM Thursday.
Wednesday’s storm will have copious amounts of moisture (green colors on map) with PWAT values of around 1.50 to 1.80 inches across parts of the Central and Southern Plains to around 1.25-1.50 inches from southern Minnesota to central/southern Wisconsin to around 0.50 inches in northern Minnesota.
By the way dry air shows up as brown colors on the map below.
Goes-16 water vapor satellite loop from May 7, 2019.
Almost a winter like setup here in late spring with two pieces of energy (one across the northern Rockies, the other across the southern Rockies) phasing somewhat over the next 24 hours as the trough currently over the western U.S. heads out into the Plains and into the upper Midwest and Great Lakes.
12z European ensemble model 5-7-19
Temperature anomaly forecast valid through May 22.
No persistent warmth expected in the Northland looking out the next 2 weeks as a cool weather pattern continues! We may get a brief warm spike early next week sending highs into the 60s, maybe even into the 70s (near normal to a little above normal for mid May) but the overall trend is for very few days with highs 60 F or warmer in our area through late month.
Blue, purple and green colors on the map below represent below normal temperatures while orange and red colors represent above normal temperatures.
•An active March and April for tornadoes with 422 preliminary tornado reports — The 20 year average is 273 tornadoes.
•April 2019 with 277 tornado reports may be the second most active April since 2011.
More on the active 2019 tornado season at this link https://weather.com/storms/tornado/news/2019-05-07-spring-tornado-season-active-march-april-2019
…Climate Data for May 6, 2019…
3rd lowest minimum temperature on record for May 6 with a low on Monday of 23 degrees. The record low temperature for May 6 is 21 degrees set in 1989.
4th coldest high temperature on record for May 6 with a high on Monday of 44 degrees. The coldest high temperature on record for May 6 is 38 degrees set in 1979.
International Falls, Minnesota
5th coldest high temperature on record for May 6 with a high on Monday of 43 degrees. The coldest high temperature on record for May 6 is 39 degrees set in 1979.
Note: A top 5 maximum snowfall is possible in Duluth Wednesday night, the list below shows the top 5 greatest snowfall totals on record for May 8.
(Snowfall records for Duluth go back to 1885)
1) 5.0 inches set in 1924
2) 0.8 inches set in 1923
3) 0.7 inches set in 1954
4) 0.6 inches set in 1933
5) 0.3 inches set in 1984
By the way, the greatest snowfall total on record for May 9 is 0.2 inches set in 1990, and this also happens to be the only measurable snow (0.1″ or greater accumulation) to occur on May 9 since snowfall records began in 1885. Bottom line, we’re in rare territory if we do get some snow in Duluth either on May 8 or May 9.
Record or near record cold in the Northland Tuesday morning, May 7, 2019
*Hibbing, Minnesota: A record low temperature of 20 degrees was set today (May 7, 2019) This breaks the old record of 21 degrees set in 2004.
*International Falls, Minnesota: Low temperature of 20 degrees today (May 7, 2019) Missed the record low by 1 degree (Record low is 19 degrees set in 2004)
Duluth, Minnesota Climate Summary for May 7, 2019
High: 54 degrees
Departure: -6 degrees below normal
Low: 29 degrees
Departure: -9 degrees below normal
Average: 42 degrees
Departure: -7 degrees below normal
Month to date: 0.44″
Departure: -0.26″ below normal
Month to date: 0.3″
Departure: +0.1″ above normal
Forecast for Duluth
.Tonight… Clear this evening then partly to mostly cloudy overnight. Low 33 to 37. Wind east 5 to 15 mph.
.Wednesday… Breezy. Mostly cloudy. Rain gradually developing during the afternoon. High 42 to 47 but cooler near Lake Superior. Wind east 10 to 20 mph with gusts to 25 mph.
.Wednesday night… Windy. Rain and snow possibly changing to all snow. Low 33 to 35. Wind east to northeast 15 to 30 mph with higher gusts possible.
.Thursday… Snow, rain and drizzle ending during the afternoon. Total snowfall accumulations of 1 to 4 inches possible mainly on grassy and elevated surfaces. High 41 to 46. Wind becoming north to northwest 10 to 20 mph.
Normal temperatures for May 8
May 8 Sunrise: 5:43 AM CDT
May 8 Sunset: 8:28 PM CDT
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