Here’s my snowfall forecast for Wednesday night and Thursday.
•Majority of the snow accumulation will be on grassy and elevated surfaces
•No impacts to travel are expected at this time
•Surface temperatures will be marginal for all snow (33 to 35 degrees) but temperatures aloft look cold enough to produce snow from late Wednesday night into Thursday morning, especially over northwest Wisconsin, so it will come down to the low level temps as to whether or not we see rain or a rain-snow mix or a change over to all snow
Low pressure is forecast to be over far southwest Kansas/western Oklahoma Wednesday morning, this low is then forecast to lift northeast, reaching eastern Iowa or western Illinois by Thursday morning. This system could bring some rain or a rain-snow mix to much of northwest Wisconsin, and in far eastern and northeastern Minnesota from Wednesday afternoon into Thursday.
18z NAM-WRF model 5-6-19
Radar forecast valid from 1 PM Wednesday to 1 AM Thursday.
Rain or a rain-snow mix spreads north into northwest Wisconsin late Wednesday afternoon or evening. Note: We could see this area of precipitation shift a little farther west in future model runs.
Temperature departure map for the week of April 28. If you’re a fan of warm spring weather, blue and purple colors are not the colors you wanna see on the map below. Average temps last week were well below normal across the Northland by some 5 to 10 degrees!
Precipitation departure map for the week of April 28. Near to above normal precipitation totals across the Northland last week with the greatest departures from normal represented by the darker green and blue colors on map.
Temperature and Precipitation report for Duluth, Minnesota
April 28-May 4, 2019
High Temperatures/Departure from Normal
4/28: 52 F/-4 degrees below normal
4/29: 40 F/-16 degrees below normal
4/30: 37 F/-20 degrees below normal
5/1: 37 F/-20 degrees below normal
5/2: 50 F/-8 degrees below normal
5/3: 55 F/-3 degrees below normal
5/4: 70 F/+12 degrees above normal
Low Temperatures/Departure from Normal
4/28: 26 F/-9 degrees below normal
4/29: 34 F/-2 degrees below normal
4/30: 33 F/-3 degrees below normal
5/1: 34 F/-2 degrees below normal
5/2: 33 F/-4 degrees below normal
5/3: 28 F/-9 degrees below normal
5/4: 37 F/Normal
Average temperature for the week of April 28: 40.4 degrees; -6.2 degrees below normal. Source: https://www.dnr.state.mn.us
Total precipitation: 0.76 inches
Normal: 0.70 inches
Departure: +0.06 inches above normal
State Average for Minnesota for the week of April 28, 2019
Temperature: 42.3 degrees
Departure: -8.6 degrees below normal
Precipitation: 0.68 inches
Departure: -0.08 inches below normal
Comparing spring 2019 to spring 2018
Note: Stats below are from March 1 to May 5
•Average temperature in Minnesota so far this spring: 33.8 degrees
•Average temperature in Minnesota last spring thru May 5: 32.4 degrees
Note: The statewide average temperature is running +1.4 degrees warmer this spring compared to last spring through May 5.
•Total precipitation so far this spring in Minnesota: 5.49 inches
•Total precipitation last spring thru May 5 in Minnesota: 4.13 inches
Note: +1.36 inches more precipitation so far this spring compared to last spring in Minnesota through May 5.
•Spring 2019 is running 2.0 degrees warmer compared to last spring through May 5 in Duluth, Minnesota — See stats below.
•Average temp so far this spring: 33.3 degrees
•Average temp last spring through May 5: 31.3 degrees
Note: Last May was the warmest May on record in Duluth, Minnesota, and this helped to bump the average temperature for spring 2018 to 38.9 degrees. Will see where spring 2019 end’s up, but it’s unlikely it stays warmer than last spring based on long range model forecasts.
Duluth, Minnesota Climate Summary for May 6, 2019
High: 51 degrees
Departure: -8 degrees below normal
Low: 31 degrees
Departure: -7 degrees below normal
Average temperature: 41 degrees
Departure: -7 degrees below normal
Month to date: 0.44″
Departure: -0.17″ below normal
Month to date: 0.3″
Departure: +0.1″ above normal
Forecast for Duluth
.Tonight… Partly cloudy. Low 30 to 35. Wind north to northeast around 12 mph.
.Tuesday… Partly cloudy. High 49 to 54 but cooler near Lake Superior. Wind east 5 to 15 mph.
.Wednesday… Mostly cloudy. High 45 to 50 but cooler near Lake Superior. Wind east 10 to 20 mph.
Normal temperatures for May 7
May 7 Sunrise: 5:45 AM CDT
May 7 Sunset: 8:27 PM CDT