21z RAP model 5-20-19
This. Weather. Pattern.
An active weather pattern remains in place this week with rain chances returning to the Northland Tuesday night with some more rain expected Wednesday, and again from Thursday night through Friday.
A mix of ingredients are coming together to produce a potentially dangerous severe weather outbreak through tonight across parts of the Southern Plains.
•A large area of strong instability with CAPE of 3000-5000 J/kg
•1 km shear of 25 to 40 knots
•Effective Storm Relative Helicity ranging from 300 to 500 m2/s2
•Winds changing direction with height, SE wind near the surface; S wind at 850mb veering to SW in the mid/upper levels of the atmosphere.
•Very strong winds aloft >100 knots ejecting out of the southwest U.S.
Forecasters at the Storm Prediction Center issued a High Risk for severe weather through tonight, this is a 5/5 on the scale, can’t go any higher than a high risk.
A risk for long track violent tornadoes through tonight across parts of Oklahoma and Texas with a rare 45% hatched area for significant tornadoes (EF2+) Note: Through 4 PM Monday, 3 preliminary tornado reports in Oklahoma and Texas.
Here’s how today’s storm looks on Goes-16 water vapor satellite imagery (May 20, 2019)
That’s a lot of energy heading into a very unstable and strongly sheared environment. Conditions are ripe for a severe weather outbreak across the Southern Plains. Note: This same storm will affect the Northland starting Tuesday night without the severe thunderstorm component, instead we’re looking at strong east winds, some rain and more chilly temps.
18z NAM-WRF model 5-20-19
Radar forecast from 4 PM Tuesday to 1 AM Thursday.
•Most of the day Tuesday looks dry in northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin.
•Rain is forecast to spread north into the area Tuesday night.
•Scattered showers continue Wednesday along with some potential for fog and drizzle especially near Lake Superior.
Low temperature forecast for Tuesday morning, May 21, 2019.
Lows tonight mainly in the 30s under clear skies but with some increase in cloud cover during the night.
High temperature forecast for Tuesday, May 21, 2019.
Coolest temperatures on Tuesday will be found near Lake Superior where east winds will increase through the day with wind gusts approaching 25-30 mph during the afternoon with highs near the lake in the 40s. Farther inland, highs Tuesday ranging from around 60 to 70 degrees, warmest temps in far northern Minnesota near the Ontario border. Expect cloudier skies Tuesday compared to what we saw on Monday, but I think there will still be at least a little bit of sun at times across the area.
Temperature departure map for the week of May 12, 2019.
Most of the Northland had below average temperatures last week with a few pockets with near to slightly above average temps (yellow and orange colors on map)
Precipitation departure map for the week of May 12, 2019.
Drier than normal in northern Minnesota while wetter than normal conditions covered east-central Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin last week.
Temperature and Precipitation report for Duluth, Minnesota
May 12-18, 2019
High Temperatures/Departure from Normal
5/12: 63 F/+2 degrees above normal
5/13: 69 F/+7 degrees above normal
5/14: 75 F/+13 degrees above normal
5/15: 64 F/+2 degrees above normal
5/16: 67 F/+5 degrees above normal
5/17: 56 F/-7 degrees below normal
5/18: 45 F/-18 degrees below normal
Low Temperatures/Departure from Normal
5/12: 41 F/+1 degree above normal
5/13: 36 F/-4 degrees below normal
5/14: 46 F/+6 degrees above normal
5/15: 42 F/+2 degrees above normal
5/16: 42 F/+1 degree above normal
5/17: 39 F/-2 degrees below normal
5/18: 39 F/-2 degrees below normal
Average temperature for the week of May 12: 51.7 degrees (+0.4 degrees above normal) Source: https://www.dnr.state.mn.us
Total precipitation: 0.58 inches
Normal: 0.71 inches
Departure: -0.14″ below normal
State Average for Minnesota for the week of May 12, 2019
Temperature: 55.4 degrees
Departure: -0.5 degrees below normal
Precipitation: 0.85 inches
Departure: +0.13 inches above normal
What a difference a year makes!
Duluth, Minnesota stats
May 2019 precipitation total (thru the 20th) 2.85 inches
May 2018 precipitation total (thru the 20th) 0.39 inches
May 2019 snowfall total (thru the 20th) 13.3 inches (snowiest May on record)
May 2018 snowfall total (thru the 20th) 0.0 inches
Spring 2019 precipitation total (thru May 20) 6.23 inches
Spring 2018 precipitation total (thru May 20) 2.22 inches
Forecast for Duluth
.Tonight… Clear this evening followed by partly to mostly cloudy skies late. Low 35 to 40. Wind east 4 to 12 mph.
.Tuesday… Breezy. Partly to mostly cloudy. High 55 to 60 but cooler near Lake Superior. Wind east increasing to 15 to 25 mph. Note: Rain arrives Tuesday night.
.Wednesday… Breezy and cool. Occasional showers. Fog and drizzle possible. High 40 to 45. Wind east 15 to 25 mph.
Normal temperatures for May 21
May 21 Sunrise: 5:27 AM CDT
May 21 Sunset: 8:44 PM CDT