Goes-16 water vapor satellite image and analysis from late Thursday afternoon, May 23, 2019.
18z NAM-WRF model 5-23-19
Well another round of rain is on the way for Friday as low pressure tracks northeast into the Northern Plains.
Southerly flow ahead of the low will pump moisture north into our area while large scale lift increases as the low and mid-upper level trough approaches the upper Midwest, this will all lead to some rain which will impact the Northland on Friday.
Note: There are some timing differences per model data on when the rain will begin on Friday, some models like the one shown below has the rain overspreading the Northland Friday morning while a few other models show the best chance for some rain holding off until Friday afternoon.
There is a slight chance for a few thunderstorms Friday afternoon/evening as computer models do hint at some weak instability developing in parts of the area with elevated CAPE of 100 to around 500 J/kg while mid level lapse rates steepen to around 7.0 c/km. Note: No severe weather is expected in our area Friday but if a thunderstorm develops that would increase the chance for heavier downpours and some lightning.
Rainfall amounts ranging from around a quarter to half inch are possible Friday in northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin but locally higher amounts are possible.
Low temperature forecast for Friday morning, May 23.
Lows tonight mainly in the 40s.
High temperature forecast for Friday, May 24.
Broken record here — More cool temps on Friday with highs ranging from the 40s near Lake Superior to the 60s in far southern portions of the Northland (Brainerd to Hayward) highs in the 50s across the remainder of the Northland.
…Holiday weekend outlook for northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin…
Saturday – Spotty showers with a mix of clouds and sun. West winds with highs in the mid 50s to mid 60s.
Sunday – Mainly dry. Winds shifting to the east so it will be much cooler near Lake Superior (highs in the 40s and 50s) milder inland with highs mainly in the 60s to lower 70s.
Monday, Memorial Day – Cool with possible rain. Highs in the 40s and 50s with easterly winds.
Computer models are showing a fairly strong upper level low (almost like a Polar Vortex) dropping SE toward Ontario or Hudson Bay mid to late next week. Depending on how this upper low tracks and if it digs far enough south will determine how cool it gets around here from around May 29 to June 1, but there is potential for a frost/freeze across parts of the upper Midwest and Great Lakes later next week, and perhaps even a few snow showers or flurries as well during the overnight/morning hours. Stay tuned.
Climate Stats for Duluth, Minnesota
May 2019: 3.80 inches (thru the 23rd)
Departure: +1.44 inches above normal
May 2018: 0.39 inches (thru the 23rd)
Departure: -1.97 inches below normal
May 2019: 47.0 degrees (thru the 23rd)
Departure: -3.2 degrees below normal
May 2018: 53.5 degrees (thru the 23rd)
Departure: +3.4 degrees above normal
•Spring precip total
March 1 to May 23, 2019: 7.18 inches
Departure: +0.90 inches above normal
March 1 to May 23, 2018: 2.22 inches
Departure: -4.06 inches below normal
Forecast for Duluth
.Tonight… Mostly cloudy. Isolated sprinkles possible. Low 40 to 45. Wind becoming east 10 to 20 mph.
.Friday… Breezy and cool with occasional rain. Some drizzle and fog also possible. High 45 to 50. Wind east 15 to 25 mph.
.Saturday… Mostly cloudy (few peeks of sun possible) Isolated showers. High 58 to 63. Wind west 10 to 20 mph.
Normal temperatures for May 24
May 24 Sunrise: 5:25 AM CDT
May 24 Sunset: 8:47 PM CDT