18z NAM-WRF model 5-30-19
A few showers are possible early Friday morning in far northeast Minnesota followed by a chance for a few showers and thunderstorms Friday afternoon into early Friday evening mostly over east-central Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin.
An area of low pressure along with a cold front will move southeast through the region Friday while a lake breeze front moves west/south off Lake Superior. Increasing amounts of moisture and instability are forecast to develop Friday south of Duluth, from east-central Minnesota into northwest Wisconsin with stronger winds aloft in place as well, these ingredients could help to produce a few thunderstorms Friday afternoon/evening in eastern Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin with a low risk of strong to severe thunderstorms.
Note: Can’t rule out a stray shower in Duluth on Friday but the better chance for some showers look to be west and south of the Twin Ports.
•A marginal risk of severe thunderstorms Friday afternoon/early evening in far southern portions of the Northland, roughly along and south of a line from Sandstone to Glidden.
•Hazards in the marginal and slight risk areas include hail to quarter size, damaging wind gusts to 60 mph, lightning and heavy downpours.
•A marginal risk of severe thunderstorms Friday covering a large portion of central and southern Minnesota into most of Wisconsin with a little better chance of severe weather (slight risk) in parts of central/eastern Wisconsin from around Ladysmith and Rhinelander to Wausau, Green Bay and Sheboygan.
Analysis from late Thursday afternoon. Lake Superior showing her power once again today.
18z NAM-WRF model 5-30-19
Highs on Friday are forecast to range from around 70 degrees to as warm as the middle 80s but much cooler temperatures in the 40s and 50s will be found near Lake Superior. Warmest temps on Friday should be over east-central Minnesota and inland areas of northwest Wisconsin.
A strong lake breeze is forecast to develop sometime Friday afternoon and this boundary will move quickly to the west/south later Friday afternoon, eventually reaching as far south as Moose Lake and Hayward, west to McGregor, a good 20 degree temperature drop is possible in those aforementioned locations later Friday afternoon. Note: Northeast winds will increase to 15 to 25 mph near Lake Superior Friday afternoon/evening.
12z European computer model 5-30-19
850mb temperature forecast for Friday, May 31, 2019.
Goes-16 visible satellite image from Thursday afternoon, May 30, 2019.
Widespread smoke covered northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin today due to wildfires that are burning in western Canada. Northwest winds aloft are bringing these plumes of smoke southeast into the Northern Plains and even parts of the Central Plains into the upper Midwest.
Temperatures were the other big weather story today with a stronger lake breeze today keeping temps in the mid 40s to mid 50s this afternoon near Lake Superior while very warm conditions were found farther inland with highs ranging from lower 70s to middle 80s in north-central and east-central Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin.
There’s a lot going on in the satellite loop below.
Goes-16 imagery from Thursday, May 30, 2019.
1: Low pressure spinning E-SE across parts of Iowa and Missouri today.
2: Low pressure over Quebec province.
3: Low pressure heading southeast across northern Saskatchewan and northern Manitoba province.
4: Wildfires over northern Alberta province with several smoke plumes moving south/east through western/central Canada, into the Northern/Central Plains and upper Midwest.
Low temperature forecast for Friday morning, May 31.
High temperature forecast for Friday, May 31.
2019 ALS Fishing Tournament takes place at Island Lake, Minnesota on Saturday, June 1.
Weather looks nice for this event on Saturday with winds out of the north-northwest at 10 to 20 mph with a mix of sun and clouds. Temperatures in the mid 40s to around 50 degrees at 7 AM Saturday, warming to the middle to upper 60s Saturday afternoon.
More info about this event at this link http://webmn.alsa.org/site/TR?fr_id=13632&pg=entry
Forecast for Duluth
.Tonight… Smoke. Partly cloudy. Low 40 to 45. Wind east 5 to 15 mph.
.Friday… Some smoke and haze. Partly to mostly cloudy. Isolated showers possible. Turning breezy and cooler. High 67 to 72 but cooler near Lake Superior. Wind becoming east 10 to 20 mph with gusts to 30 mph possible during the afternoon.
.Saturday… Partly cloudy. High 64 to 69. Wind north to northwest 10 to 20 mph.
Normal temperatures for May 31
May 31 Sunrise: 5:19 AM CDT
May 31 Sunset: 8:54 PM CDT