12z HRRR model 5-29-19
A few isolated showers and possibly a thunderstorm on the way for Thursday as a cold front drops south across the Northland. This front won’t get too far south before it heads E-NE as a warm front Friday morning, then will see a stronger cold front surge south through the Northland Friday with another round of scattered showers or thunderstorms possible near that boundary Friday afternoon-evening targeting mainly southern portions of the Northland the way it looks now. Note: Severe weather is not expected Thursday or Friday, but brief downpours and occasional lightning will be possible with a few storms.
18z NAM-WRF model 5-29-19
Friday’s lake breeze front could be a potent one, possibly even stronger than the one that hit last Sunday afternoon. Watch how quickly the temperatures drop Friday afternoon-evening on the loop below as the lake breeze front surges well inland off Lake Superior sometime Friday afternoon or evening.
Note: There are some timing differences seen in model guidance as to when this lake breeze front will move through Duluth on Friday with the Euro guidance showing an earlier frontal passage while the GFS shows a later frontal passage (Friday evening) while the NAM guidance shows it moving through Duluth Friday afternoon somewhere in the 1-3 PM time frame. An earlier frontal passage is probably the way to go with this type of setup, but if this front holds off til later Friday afternoon, then there is a chance that temperatures could soar into the middle 80s in Duluth for a few hours on Friday, but once that lake breeze front blasts through, temps will fall quickly into the 40s and 50s while northeast winds increase to 20 to 30 mph!
File this under something you don’t see everyday. Warmest temperatures across Minnesota on this 29th day of May were found in Duluth and surrounding areas of northeast and east-central Minnesota while the coolest temperatures covered southern Minnesota, but especially southwestern Minnesota. Upside down weather pattern.
…Breaking… Duluth, Minnesota hit 82 degrees today (first 80 this year) The average date for first 80 degree high temperature in Duluth is May 23 (1875-2018 climate period) The last time Duluth had a high of at least 80 degrees occurred last September on the 16th.
Note: Today’s (May 29) high of 82 degrees in Duluth is the warmest temperature since August 27, 2018, high was also 82 degrees.
Low temperature forecast for Thursday morning, May 30.
A relatively mild night ahead with lows in the mid 40s to low 50s. Partly cloudy skies are forecast with areas of haze and smoke possible due to the wildfires over western Canada which are sending plumes of smoke into the Northern Plains into portions of the upper Midwest.
High temperature forecast for Thursday, May 30.
Warm temperatures continue Thursday with highs in the lower 70s to lower 80s, but it will be much cooler near Lake Superior with highs ranging from the mid 40s to around 60 degrees with east winds gusting to around 20 mph. Note: Areas of haze and smoke could linger in parts of the Northland Thursday.
The pattern over the last few weeks has been very active with severe weather and tornadoes occurring on a daily basis from the Southern and Central Plains to Ohio Valley into parts of the northeast U.S.
The map below is the infrared satellite image from Tuesday evening, May 28, 2019, with the basic pattern overlaid.
•973 tornado warnings issued so far this month, that’s the most in any month since April 2011. Most tornado warnings during the month of May since 2008. Source: Twitter; @KathrynProciv
•549 tornado reports so far in the last 30 days (April 28, 2019 to May 28, 2019) Source: Twitter; @splillo
Forecast for Duluth
.Tonight… Some haze and smoke. Partly cloudy. Low 48 to 53. Wind west 5 to 15 mph.
.Thursday… Some haze and smoke. Partly to mostly cloudy. Isolated showers possible. Cooler. High 69 to 74 but cooler near Lake Superior. Wind west 5 to 15 mph, becoming east 10 to 20 mph.
.Friday… Partly to mostly cloudy. Isolated showers possible. High 65 to 70 with falling temperatures. Wind southwest 10 to 20 mph, becoming northeast 15 to 30 mph.
Normal temperatures for May 30
May 30 Sunrise: 5:20 AM CDT
May 30 Sunset: 8:53 PM CDT