Scattered showers and a few t-storms through Wednesday (dry hours mixed in) Very warm/muggy pattern possible this weekend-next week

/Issued 5:14 PM CDT, Tuesday, July 9, 2019/

Weather Tidbits for Duluth, Minnesota

•8 days so far this month with a high temperature of at least 80 degrees, the average number of 80 degree days in the month of July is 11 days.  Record number of 80 degree days in July occurred in 2012 with 25 days with a high temperature of at least 80 degrees.

•16 days so far this summer with a high temperature of at least 80 degrees, the average number of 80 degree days from June 1 to August 31 is 23 days.

•Average temperature so far this month (thru the 8th)  70.8 degrees; +6.1 degrees warmer than average.

Note:  Warmest July on record in Duluth occurred in 2006 and again in 2012 with an average temperature of 71.9 degrees.

2nd warmest July:  71.7 degrees set in 1881
3rd warmest July:  70.9 degrees set in 1921
4th warmest July:  70.6 degrees set in 1936
5th warmest July:  70.3 degrees set in 1878

Rainfall Reports from July 8-9, 2019
Source:  https://mesowest.utah.edu

Note:  Totals listed below are through 6 PM Tuesday, July 9.

Cass Lake, MN:  1.08 inch
International Falls, MN:  0.90 inch
Walker, MN:  0.58 inch
Orr, MN:  0.39 inch
Grand Rapids, MN:  0.18 inch
Brainerd, MN:  0.16 inch
Chisholm-Hibbing, MN:  0.10 inch
Cook, MN:  0.07 inch
Ely, MN:  0.06 inch

Temperature and Precipitation report for Duluth, Minnesota

June 30 through July 6, 2019

High Temperatures/Departure from Normal

6/30:  80 F/+5 degrees above normal
7/1:  84 F/+9 degrees above normal
7/2:  87 F/+12 degrees above normal
7/3:  86 F/+11 degrees above normal
7/4:  80 F/+5 degrees above normal
7/5:  81 F/+5 degrees above normal
7/6:  73 F/-3 degrees below normal

Low Temperatures/Departure from Normal

6/30:  60 F/+7 degrees above normal
7/1:  66 F/+12 degrees above normal
7/2:  63 F/+9 degrees above normal
7/3:  65 F/+11 degrees above normal
7/4:  61 F/+7 degrees above normal
7/5:  65 F/+11 degrees above normal
7/6:  54 F/-1 degree below normal

Average temperature from June 30 through July 6:  71.8 degrees (+7.2 degrees above normal) Source:  https://www.dnr.state.mn.us

Total Precipitation:  1.56 inches
Normal:  1.04 inches
Departure:  +0.52 inches above normal

State Average for Minnesota for the week of June 30, 2019
Source:  https://www.dnr.state.mn.us

Temperature:  72.9 degrees
Departure:  +3.4 degrees above normal

Precipitation:  1.99 inches
Departure:  +1.05 inches above normal

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•Most of the Northland is under a Marginal Risk for severe thunderstorms tonight, but I’m not too impressed with tonight’s setup.

•Instability is quite limited with late afternoon CAPE generally around 500 J/kg or less.  Poor mid level lapse rates, lots of cloud cover/limited heating across most of the area as well, so those are big negatives for getting a lot of severe weather tonight.

•Positives for some severe weather tonight include — 500mb winds generally 40 knots or less with 70-100 knot upper level winds spreading northeast into the upper Midwest, this is helping to increase the amount of shear in our area late this Tuesday afternoon with 0-6 KM Shear of 30 to 40 knots per meso-analysis page.

•So once again we’re left with a combination of negative and positives for getting some severe weather in northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin tonight, seems to be a common theme this summer.

•Overall I’m not expecting much severe weather in our area tonight.  Perhaps an isolated strong to severe thunderstorm, but the biggest threats would be from heavy rain and lightning.

A small portion of northwest Wisconsin from Ashland to Glidden, east to Hurley and Mercer are under a slight risk for severe thunderstorms Wednesday (orange shaded area on map, or whatever color that is)  Main risks are from hail and gusty winds with an isolated tornado also possible.

Far northeast Minnesota including Duluth, Superior, North Shore and Arrowhead are under a marginal risk for severe thunderstorms Wednesday (blue shaded area on map)  Main risks are from hail and gusty winds.

Note:  All storms on Wednesday will produce heavy downpours and lightning.

Source:  https://weather.cod.edu

Radar loop ending at 6:25 PM CDT, Tuesday, July 9, 2019.

Source:  https://weathermodels.com

18z HRRR model 7-9-2019

Radar forecast from 7 PM Tuesday to 10 PM Wednesday.

Low pressure with its warm front, cold front and occluded front will be passing through the Northland tonight which will provide the necessary lift to produce some rain and perhaps a few thunderstorms, there could also be some areas of fog tonight due to the muggy airmass that is over the area.

Surface and upper level areas of low pressure will pass over the Northland Wednesday which should help to produce isolated to scattered coverage of showers and thunderstorms, likely peaking in coverage and intensity in the afternoon-early evening hours.

Source:  https://weather.cod.edu

Goes-16 visible satellite loop from Tuesday, July 9, 2019.

A fairly organized low pressure system for July standards, note the twisting motion in the clouds over the Northern Plains and upper Midwest today.  This will be a two part system, the first moving through our area tonight, the second during the day Wednesday.

Source:  https://www.pivotalweather.com

18z NAM model 7-9-2019

500mb forecast valid from 7 PM Tuesday to 7 PM Wednesday.

Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms will be with us through late Wednesday afternoon thanks to a mid/upper level area of low pressure which moves east-northeast out of western North Dakota.  The upper low moves right over the Northland during the day Wednesday with its pocket of colder temperatures aloft (H5 temps -10 to -15C) this could lead to more thunderstorm development Wednesday compared to what we see tonight.

Source:  https://graphical.weather.gov

Low temperature forecast for Wednesday morning, July 9, 2019.

A mild night ahead with lows ranging from around 60 to the middle 60s.

Source:  https://graphical.weather.gov

High temperature forecast for Wednesday, July 9, 2019.

Pleasant temps Wednesday with highs mainly in the 70s with a few near 80 degree temps possible in northwest Wisconsin.  Dew points Wednesday are forecast to range from the upper 50s to middle 60s so it will feel a little on the humid side.

Source:  https://weathermodels.com

12z European Ensemble model 7-9-2019

Potential is there for a very warm and muggy stretch of weather across the Northland this weekend through next week thanks to an upper level ridge which could develop to our south across the Plains.  Since it looks like we will be on the north side of this ridge this will leave us in a zone for potential thunderstorm clusters which would track west/north of the upper level ridge from this weekend through next week.

Forecast for Duluth

.Tonight…  Humid and hazy.  Patchy fog.  Scattered showers.  Isolated thunderstorms possible.  Mostly cloudy.  Low 60 to 65.  Wind east to southeast 5 to 15 mph becoming southwest late.

.Wednesday…  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Scattered showers or thunderstorms possible especially during the afternoon into the early evening hours.  High 73 to 78.  Wind southwest 10 to 20 mph.

.Thursday…  Partly cloudy.  High 70 to 75.  Wind north to northeast 10 to 15 mph becoming variable.

Normal temperatures for July 10

High:  76
Low:   55

July 10 Sunrise:  5:25 AM CDT
July 10 Sunset:   9:03 PM CDT

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