Stronger, cooler lake breeze on the way for Wednesday

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Let’s get to the weather shall we?

It’s another warm day across the Northland with temperatures this Tuesday afternoon ranging from the upper 70s to lower 80s with a few locations making a run toward the middle 80s. Note: Normal highs for July 16 are in the upper 70s.

One notable change in today’s weather compared to Monday’s weather is a drop in dew points (humidity levels) On Monday, dew points across the Northland ranged from 65 to 75 degrees, but dew points this afternoon are somewhat more comfortable ranging from around 55 to 65 degrees. Source:

Goes-16 satellite imagery from Tuesday afternoon shows scattered cumulus clouds along with some cirrus clouds over the Northland. Source:

Far southern portions of the Northland are under a Marginal Risk for severe thunderstorms on Wednesday. The risk area is roughly along and south of a line from Nisswa, Aitkin to Moose Lake to Gordon, Hayward and Loretta. The main hazards if severe storms occur on Wednesday would be from large hail and strong winds.

Note: There is a higher chance for severe weather on Wednesday (Slight Risk) across southern Minnesota.

Here’s one model’s take on how things play out for late tonight through Wednesday night. Model image below from

A few showers are possible later tonight but most of us should stay dry. Then on Wednesday we could see at least one round of showers with embedded thunderstorms impact parts of the Northland during the morning/afternoon hours.

Additional shower/thunderstorm development is possible late Wednesday afternoon-evening, especially in central and southern Minnesota and west-central and southern Wisconsin, some of the storms could be severe in those areas later in the day Wednesday.

…Weather Synopsis…

A nearly stationary frontal boundary will be over south-central Minnesota over the next several days. Strong instability and a very humid airmass will be found near this front through the end of the week. Disturbances riding along the stationary front will help to produce clusters of strong to severe thunderstorms over southern and possibly central Minnesota Wednesday and Thursday.

The Northland will remain north of this stationary front through this weekend. A tropical airmass returns to our area Wednesday through Friday morning with dew points in the 60s to lower 70s, then it looks like will get some drier air (lower dew points) to work back in for the weekend.

A few showers are possible later tonight with occasional showers or thunderstorms expected for Wednesday-Wednesday night. Heavy downpours and lightning will be the main hazards out of the storms on Wednesday, but there is a low chance for some severe weather in far southern areas late Wednesday afternoon/evening.

A stronger lake wind is on the way for Wednesday with wind gusts near Lake Superior of 15 to 25 mph. Highs near the lake on Wednesday should range from the upper 50s to middle 60s so certainly a lot cooler compared to the last few days. A warmer west wind returns Thursday and Friday which should cause high temps to climb into the 80s.

The remainder of the Northland are looking at highs in the 70s Wednesday, and from the middle 70s to middle 80s for Thursday and Friday.

July 2019 Climate Stats for Duluth, Minnesota (Thru the 15th)

Average temperature: 71.6 degrees (+6.3 degrees above normal) If the month ended today, July 2019 would rank as 3rd warmest July in station history.

It’s been a dry month so far in Duluth with 0.54 inches of rain, this is -1.50 inches below normal.

13 days with a high temp of at least 80 degrees (thru the 16th) The average number of 80 degree days in Duluth for the month of July is 11 days.

One would think with how warm and humid this month has been that it would have been stormier than it has been, but that hasn’t been the case in Duluth with just 3 days with thunder so far this month.

A typical summer time weather pattern has been in place lately. Thunderstorms tend to be scattered at this time of year meaning some locations get a lot of rain and even some flash flooding while other locations only get a little rain or none at all. The image below shows where rainfall has been running above normal the last 7 days (green and blue colors on map) and where rainfall totals have been below normal (brown colors on map) Source:

Thanks for checking out my blog and have a great night.

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