Scattered showers/t-storms possible the next few days; warm temps continue, turning more humid Thursday-Friday

All of north-central Minnesota is in a Slight risk of severe thunderstorms Thursday and Thursday night.

Marginal risk of severe thunderstorms Thursday and Thursday night farther east (light blue shaded area on map)

…Hazards in the risk areas include…

  • Large hail to 1 inch in diameter (quarter size)
  • Damaging wind gusts to 60 mph
  • Frequent lightning
  • Heavy downpours

Here’s a look at two possible scenarios for Thursday per 18z model guidance

HRRR model has a stormier look to it compared to the NAM-WRF model.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms would develop Thursday afternoon and continue into Thursday night with a few strong to severe storms possible.

Note: Radar forecast below valid from 7 AM Thursday to 1 AM Friday.

Source: https://weathermodels.com

The NAM-WRF model (shown below) shows scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms impacting much of the Northland during the day Thursday with a line of stronger storms possibly moving through some parts of the area early Friday morning.

Note: Radar forecast below valid from 7 AM Thursday to 7 AM Friday.

The system which will affect us for the end of the week looks impressive on satellite imagery today, but a lot of the energy with this system will stay north of the border, so will have to rely on forcing/convergence near the warm front, cold front and upper level trough in order to get some showers and thunderstorms to develop across the area for Thursday and Friday, I don’t think we’re looking at widespread rains with this system, instead we’re likely to see scattered convection develop at times for Thursday and Friday, meaning some spots get hit, others get missed.

Source: https://weather.cod.edu

Low temperature forecast for Thursday morning, July 25.

Lows tonight ranging from the lower 50s to lower 60s under partly cloudy skies. Spotty showers or thunderstorms in far northeast Minnesota (up near the Grand Marais area) and in parts of northwest Wisconsin will dissipate this evening with mainly dry conditions expected overnight.

Source: https://graphical.weather.gov

High temperature forecast for Thursday, July 25.

Highs in the 80s are forecast in the Northland on Thursday. Dew points will start out in the comfortable 50s, but dew points will start to creep up through the day, and by Thursday evening much of the area can expect dew points in the 60s, this more humid airmass should persist into Friday the way it looks now.

Here’s some photos that I’ve taken this month.

July 6, 2019 — Wrenshall, Minnesota.

July 19, 2019 — Wrenshall, Minnesota, north side of the severe storms which hit eastern Minnesota and western Wisconsin last Friday.

July 19, 2019 — Wrenshall, Minnesota.

July 23, 2019 — Wrenshall, Minnesota. Isolated thunderstorms, beautiful looking skies.

July 23, 2019 — Wrenshall, Minnesota. Around sunset.

July 23, 2019 — Wrenshall, Minnesota. Around sunset.

…Weather Summary…

*Another very pleasant summer night ahead with lows in the 50s to lower 60s under a partly cloudy sky. Winds out of the south or southwest 5 to 15 mph.

*Should see a bit more cloud cover Thursday compared to the last few days, but still should see some sun as well. Warm and moist advection pattern will develop Thursday with southerly winds helping to pump richer moisture into our area. Scattered showers or thunderstorms are possible due to the WAA (warm air advection pattern) Highs Thursday mainly in the 80s with southerly breezes 10 to 20 mph.

*Friday’s weather will be controlled by the timing of a cold front and upper level trough. Any storms Thursday night should diminish Friday morning with warm and muggy conditions expected on Friday. Another round of scattered showers and thunderstorms could develop later in the day Friday or Friday evening near the cold front and upper trough, it’s possible we see two areas of convection later Friday, one focused in parts of northwest Wisconsin, the other in northern Minnesota with not much occurring in between.

Looking ahead to this weekend’s weather includes mainly dry conditions Saturday followed by some rain and possible thunder for Saturday night and Sunday. Warmest day of the weekend looks to be on Saturday.

Tim

Leave a Reply