Rain continues this evening; a bit cooler Monday with spotty showers possible; warmer weather mid to late week

Rain will continue this evening in Duluth, rain comes to an end later this evening.

There is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms this evening in southern portions of the Northland, roughly along and south of a line from Willow River to Solon Springs to Namekagon.

Marginal risk of severe thunderstorms this evening in the darker green shaded area on map.

…Primary threats…

  • Damaging wind gusts
  • Isolated tornadoes

Note: The risk for isolated tornadoes is greatest in the slight risk area.

Tornado Watch is in effect until 9 PM for areas just south of the Northland, heads up in Pine, Burnett, Washburn and Sawyer Counties as those areas are just north of the watch box, in other words, those Counties are near the watch meaning that severe weather is possible through early this evening.

There isn’t a lot of instability in southern areas of the Northland late this afternoon with CAPE generally ~500 J/kg, but there is 40 to 50 knots of shear and abundant low level shear to 25 knots along with 100-200 m2/s2 of Effective Storm Relative Helicity. Brief isolated tornadoes could develop early this evening due to the amount of shear that is in place across portions of northwest Wisconsin.

Low pressure with its warm front and cold front is moving through the Upper Midwest today, there is also a trough which is moving into the Northern Plains. Forcing associated with the low and trough has generated a large area of rain today which is moving into the Northland this afternoon.

18z NAM-WRF model radar forecast valid from 7 PM Sunday to 7 AM Monday.

Rain continues this evening with rain tapering off from southwest to northeast by late tonight.

Source: https://weathermodels.com

Rainfall reports through 4 PM Sunday, July 28, 2019

Source: https://mesowest.utah.edu

  • Brainerd: 0.49 inch
  • Pine River: 0.38 inch
  • Minong: 0.22 inch
  • Hill City: 0.18 inch
  • Hinckley: 0.18 inch
  • Solon Springs: 0.17 inch
  • Moose Lake: 0.13 inch
  • Grand Rapids: 0.10 inch
  • Superior Airport: 0.06 inch
  • Hayward: 0.06 inch
  • Duluth Airport: 0.04 inch

Precipitation departure map for the week of July 21, 2019. The Arrowhead of Minnesota and southwest portions of the Northland had above normal rainfall last week, the rest of us had below normal rainfall.

Source: https://hprcc.unl.edu

Temperature departure map for the week of July 21, 2019. Most of the area saw average temperatures last week which were close to normal, the exception was around the southwest arm of Lake Superior where much warmer than normal temperatures occurred (orange colored areas on map) Note: I think the very dry conditions that have occurred this month in Duluth have played a role on why it’s been so warm this month.

Temperature and Precipitation report for Duluth, Minnesota

July 21-27, 2019

High temperatures/Departure from Normal

7/21: 77 F/Normal

7/22: 81 F/+4 degrees above normal

7/23: 85 F/+8 degrees above normal

7/24: 87 F/+10 degrees above normal

7/25: 85 F/+8 degrees above normal

7/26: 84 F/+7 degrees above normal

7/27: 85 F/+8 degrees above normal

Low temperatures/Departure from Normal

7/21: 55 F/-1 degree below normal

7/22: 54 F/-2 degrees below normal

7/23: 60 F/+4 degrees above normal

7/24: 59 F/+3 degrees above normal

7/25: 63 F/+7 degrees above normal

7/26: 66 F/+10 degrees above normal

7/27: 62 F/+6 degrees above normal

Note: Average temperature for the week of July 21, 2019: 71.6 degrees (+5.3 degrees above normal) Source: https://www.dnr.state.mn.us

Total precipitation: 0.38 inches

Normal: 0.76 inches

Departure: -0.38 inches below normal

State Average for Minnesota for the week of July 21

Source: https://www.dnr.state.mn.us

Temperature: 69.2 degrees

Departure: -1.1 degrees below normal

Precipitation: 0.59 inches

Departure: -0.25 inches below normal

…Climate Normals and Sunrise/Sunset times for Duluth for the week of July 28…

Normal high on July 28th: 77 degrees

Normal high on August 3rd: 76 degrees

Normal low on July 28th: 56 degrees

Normal low on August 3rd: 56 degrees

Sunrise on July 28th: 5:44 AM

Sunrise on August 3rd: 5:50 AM

Sunset on July 28th: 8:46 PM

Sunset on August 3rd: 8:37 PM

Low temperature forecast for Monday morning, July 29.

Source: https://graphical.weather.gov

High temperature forecast for Monday, July 29.

A rare occurrence in Duluth this month, a day where the high temperature fails to hit 80 degrees! Only 5 days or 18% of days so far this month have had a high temp below 80 F. Monday will be one of those days where the high doesn’t hit 80 degrees in Duluth.

…Weather Summary…

Rain continues this evening across northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin with an isolated risk of severe thunderstorms in northwest Wisconsin. Rain tapers off from SW-NE by late this evening/overnight with patchy fog possible. An area of low pressure bringing rain to the area late this afternoon will lift northeast out of west-central Minnesota, and is forecast to reach northern Lake Superior by daybreak. Breezy northwest winds develop in wake of the low with wind gusts 15 to 25 mph from late tonight into Monday. There will be some cold air advection as the surface low departs with 850mb temps of +10 to +15C late this afternoon falling to around +5 to +10C by late Monday afternoon.

Lows tonight ranging from the mid 50s to low 60s with mostly cloudy skies expected through the night. Highs Monday ranging from the mid 60s in far northern Minnesota to the low-mid 70s in east-central Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin. A mix of sun/clouds is forecast for Monday with isolated brief showers possible.

The weather from Tuesday through Thursday looks very nice around here with seasonable temps and low humidity with no threat of rain.

Might see some changes later in the week, although the European model has backed way off from prior runs which showed an upper low and widespread rain across the Upper Midwest Friday into Saturday, now the Euro guidance keeps the rain in northern Minnesota with mostly dry weather farther south for Friday and Saturday. Stay tuned.

Note: 2019 Spirit Valley Days in West Duluth runs from Thursday, August 1st through Saturday, August 3rd. The weather for this event looks pretty good at the moment with mild temps and possibly somewhat more humid weather for late this week. Thursday and Friday look dry followed by a possibility of a few showers for Saturday. Schedule of Events link for Spirit Valley Days http://spiritvalleydays.com/friday/

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