Source: HRW NSSL model; https://www.spc.noaa.gov
Another rain event that never really amounted to much in the Duluth area during the past 24 hours, this has been a very common theme this summer, but isn’t really unusual since summer rainfall patterns tend to be fickle. One area tends to get hit over and over again throughout the summer while another area gets missed more frequently than not.
24-Hour Rainfall Reports for Aug. 12-13, 2019
Note: Totals listed below are for the 24-hour period ending at around 3 PM today, August 13, 2019.
- Grand Rapids, MN: 1.08″
- Cass Lake, MN: 1.07″
- Hill City, MN: 0.66″
- Walker, MN: 0.54″
- Chisholm-Hibbing, MN: 0.46″
- Grand Marais, MN: 0.34″
- Isabella, MN: 0.30″
- Ashland, WI: 0.23″
- Orr, MN: 0.21″
- Littlefork, MN: 0.19″
- Washburn, WI: 0.16″
- Bigfork, MN: 0.15″
- Ely, MN: 0.09″
- Grand Portage, MN: 0.09″
- International Falls, MN: 0.06″
- Duluth, MN (Airport) 0.04″
- Moose Lake, MN: 0.03″
- Two Harbors, MN: 0.03″
Certainly can see a bit of a spin (area of low pressure) moving southeast out of western Minnesota today on Goes-16 visible satellite imagery. Also of note is the high level (anvil clouds) which are spreading far to the east from the apparent thunderstorms this afternoon in southern/eastern Minnesota, this is caused by generally weak surface winds while winds aloft are much stronger and coming out of the west which spreads the cirrus or blowoff clouds far to the east.
Radar loop showing the strong to severe thunderstorms which impacted central, southern and eastern Minnesota today, Tuesday, August 13, 2019.
Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms have been occurring this afternoon in parts of central and southern Minnesota, a few of the storms have produced brief tornadoes and funnel clouds.
Meso-analysis image shows favorable surface vorticity and instability to produce a few funnels and or tornadoes this afternoon in central and southern Minnesota.
Low pressure moving southeast out of western Minnesota is resulting in southeast surface winds ahead of the low while winds aloft are out of the west-northwest. An area of 40 knot 500mb winds was over southern Minnesota this afternoon with 60-70 knot winds in the 300mb layer, the stronger winds aloft are helping to generate a decent amount of wind shear on the order of 40 to 50 knots today which is causing a few supercell thunderstorms this afternoon in central/southern Minnesota.
Low temperature forecast for Wednesday morning, August 14, 2019.
High temperature forecast for Wednesday, August 14, 2019.
NAM-WRF model radar forecast valid 7 AM Wednesday to 7 AM Thursday shows a few showers Wednesday in northern Minnesota. A few showers might sneak into Duluth Wednesday night, will see how that works out.
Widely scattered showers Wednesday, mainly west and north of Duluth, then a chance for scattered showers across the entire Northland Thursday through Saturday. No washouts are expected through Saturday, and some locations might not get much rain at all.
Tonight will see showers in far southern areas come to an end this evening as forcing associated with the low moving into south-central Minnesota moves out of the area. Otherwise for tonight we’re looking at partly to mostly cloudy skies with areas of fog. Lows will be in the 40s and 50s with north or east winds 5 to 15 mph.
Partly to mostly cloudy skies on Wednesday. A few showers are possible mainly in western-northern portions of the area. Highs in the mid 60s to mid 70s with a chaotic wind field, generally from the east or southwest.
The Northland will be impacted by a low pressure system and its warm front and cold front from Thursday through Saturday with southerly winds ahead of this system drawing some warmer and more humid air north into the area. Scattered showers are possible Thursday through Saturday, a few thunderstorms are possible as well, but at the moment the amount of instability for thunderstorm development looks rather weak with not much threat for severe weather the way it looks now.
Forecast for Duluth and Superior
.Tonight… Partly to mostly cloudy. Patchy fog possible. Low 50 to 55. Wind east 10 to 15 mph.
.Wednesday… Partly to mostly cloudy. Patchy fog possible early in the day. An isolated late day shower possible. High 67 to 72. Wind east 10 to 15 mph.
.Thursday… A few showers possible, otherwise partly sunny. High 73 to 78. Wind south to southwest 10 to 15 mph.
Normal temperatures for August 14
- High 75
- Low 55
- Sunrise 6:05 AM CDT
- Sunset 8:21 PM CDT