Warmer Thursday (SW wind) little bit of rain possible Thursday PM-Friday

A few chances for rain or perhaps only sprinkles over the next few days. The first one comes Thursday afternoon into Friday, the other in the Saturday afternoon through Sunday morning time frame.

Here’s the 500mb vorticity forecast from the NAM model valid from 7 AM Thursday to 7 PM Friday. Notice how the black lines on the map across northern Minnesota dig a little bit to the south as we get into Thursday night, this is a model signal supporting some decent lift in the atmosphere as the first system moves through the area Thursday night, what this means is there should be some rain in our area Thursday night.

Source: https://www.pivotalweather.com

NAM-WRF model radar forecast valid from 1 PM Thursday to 1 PM Friday. Source: https://weathermodels.com

A few showers are possible Thursday afternoon in northern Minnesota followed by more widespread showers and possibly a few thunderstorms Thursday night into Friday morning. The rain will move generally from west to east across the area, exiting northwest Wisconsin before Noon Friday the way it looks now.

One last hurrah? Next week is looking kinda warm and could also be quite humid at times across the upper Midwest as we see a large scale pattern change take place with the cool air getting shoved north into Canada while most of the U.S. has above average temperatures the way it looks now. Note: There are some signs showing up in long range model guidance for another pattern change toward the final week of August which could result in a cooler airmass pushing farther south out of Canada. Looks like we could add a few more 80 degree days in Duluth next week, we’re sitting at 39 days at or above 80F so far this summer, this is already well above what we typically get which is 23 days at or above 80F from June 1 to August 31.

Model image below from the European ensemble model (12z run)

Low temperature forecast for Thursday morning, August 15. Source: https://graphical.weather.gov

High temperature forecast for Thursday, August 15.

…Weather Summary…

Northwest mid to upper level flow continued in the upper Midwest today between an upper level high over the southwest U.S. and an upper low over northeast Canada. 850mb temperatures at 6 PM (CT) Wednesday range from +32C in central Utah to +20C in eastern Montana, but farther to the east under the NW flow, 850mb temps cool to +10C in northeastern Minnesota.

Partly to mostly cloudy skies will remain with us through Friday. Isolated showers could linger most of the night along with patchy late night fog. Isolated to widely scattered showers Thursday, mainly west-north areas. Scattered rains Thursday night into Friday morning as we see an area of low pressure and trough move through the area. A few thunderstorms are possible as well during the Thursday afternoon to Thursday night time frame but severe weather is not expected with only a marginally unstable atmosphere.

Lows tonight will be in the 40s and 50s with light south or east winds. Highs Thursday will mainly be in the 70s with a few locations possibly up around 80 degrees. Southwest winds 10 to 20 mph.

Greatest chance for some rain looks to occur in the Thursday night-Friday morning time frame, but a few isolated showers could redevelop Friday afternoon to the north of the low over southern Minnesota which moves southeast through the day Friday.

As I stated above there will be another chance for some rain during the Saturday afternoon to Sunday morning time frame which will be followed by mainly dry weather Sunday afternoon. Highs on Saturday forecast to be in the 70s to lower 80s with Sunday’s highs in the 70s.

Forecast for Duluth and Superior

.Tonight… Partly to mostly cloudy. Isolated showers possible. Low 51 to 56. Wind east to southeast around 10 mph.

.Thursday… Partly sunny. High 75 to 80. Wind southwest 10 to 20 mph.

.Friday… Showers possible early followed by partly to mostly cloudy skies and isolated afternoon showers. High 70 to 75. Wind variable, becoming west 10 to 20 mph.

Normal temperatures for August 15

  • High 75
  • Low 55
  • Sunrise Thursday 6:06 AM CDT
  • Sunset Thursday 8:19 PM CDT

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