Gusty east winds much cooler temps with some more rain on the way (few t-storms Thursday) Much warmer/more humid next week

Note: 1.37″ of rain at the Duluth Airport on Monday, September 9, 2019 — This was the 2nd wettest September 9 on record in Duluth. Wettest September 9 was in 1929 with 1.91″ of rain.

Note: 1.04″ of rain at International Falls on Monday, September 9, 2019 — This was the 2nd wettest September 9 on record in International Falls. Wettest September 9 was in 1925 with 1.25″ of rain.

Another round of rain is on the way for late tonight into Wednesday with the greatest amounts targeting the southern half of Minnesota with lesser amounts of rain farther north including from Brainerd to Moose Lake into northwest Wisconsin. Note: Northern Minnesota should remain dry on Wednesday.

Source: https://lab.weathermodels.com

18z NAM-WRF model radar forecast valid from 4 AM Wednesday to 7 AM Thursday. Source: https://weathermodels.com

The Northland will be on the northern edge of the rain event late tonight into Wednesday as the heaviest rain passes south of the area. Then will see another slug of rain lift northeast into our area sometime late Wednesday night or Thursday morning.

We’ve got a fairly classic pattern setting up for Wednesday and Thursday to get strong northeast winds and large waves to develop over western Lake Superior, wave watchers take note! It wouldn’t surprise me if we see a Gale Warning issued for portions of western Lake Superior Wednesday night or Thursday.

Ingredients that will be in place include high pressure over Hudson Bay, low pressure in eastern Colorado, and a big time temperature contrast which will range from the 30s over Hudson Bay to around 90 degrees in the Plains, as far north as Iowa. All this, plus the additional funneling effect of winds coming down Lake Superior should cause east/northeast winds of at least 20 to 30 mph, but gusts to around 40 mph are possible especially Wednesday night into Thursday.

Source: 18z NAM model; https://www.pivotalweather.com/

Looks like another soaking is on the way for Thursday with potential for widespread rainfall amounts of around 1 to 2 inches in northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin. Note: Some locations in south-central Minnesota into west-central Wisconsin could get 3 to nearly 6 inches of rain between late tonight and Thursday night.

Source: https://lab.weathermodels.com

Source: https://lab.weathermodels.com

Rainfall map from Monday’s event.

Rainfall Reports from Monday through Tuesday morning, September 9-10, 2019; Source https://www.weather.gov/dlh/; https://mesowest.utah.edu

  • Littlefork, MN: 2.24″
  • Nemadji River: 2.17″
  • Kettle River, MN: 2.15″
  • St. Louis River: 2.15″
  • Pine River, MN: 2.14″
  • Brule River: 1.86″
  • 1.4 NNW Duluth, MN: 1.83″
  • Deer River, MN: 1.68″
  • Superior, WI: 1.68″
  • Morgan Park, MN: 1.64″
  • Two Harbors, MN: 1.64″
  • Willow River, MN: 1.56″
  • Duluth, MN (Airport) 1.55″
  • Orr, MN: 1.51″
  • Wolfridge ELC: 1.49″
  • 1 SE Cloquet, MN: 1.40″
  • Moose Lake, MN: 1.33″
  • Superior, WI (Airport) 1.33″
  • Grand Portage, MN: 1.30″
  • Cook, MN: 1.27″
  • Esko, MN: 1.27″
  • Walker, MN: 1.27″
  • Grand Rapids, MN: 1.26″
  • Silver Bay, MN: 1.26″
  • International Falls, MN: 1.24″
  • Cass Lake, MN: 1.22″
  • 4 E Island Lake, MN: 1.22″
  • Floodwood, MN: 1.20″
  • Hill City, MN: 1.11″
  • Grand Portage, MN: 1.09″
  • Northome, MN: 1.04″
  • Isabella, MN: 1.00″
  • Chisholm-Hibbing Airport: 0.97″
  • South Range, WI: 0.92″
  • Grand Marais, MN: 0.92″
  • Bayfield, WI: 0.91″
  • Embarrass, MN: 0.90″
  • Hinckley, MN: 0.83″
  • Cotton, MN: 0.80″
  • Brainerd, MN: 0.78″
  • Washburn, WI: 0.73″
  • Ely, MN: 0.66″
  • Babbitt, MN: 0.61″
  • Ashland, WI: 0.59″
  • Minong, WI: 0.56″
  • Solon Springs, WI: 0.55″
  • Glidden, WI: 0.37″
  • Danbury, WI: 0.34″
  • Clam Lake, WI: 0.33″
  • Siren, WI: 0.28″
  • Hayward, WI: 0.21″

Note: 1.37 inches of rain in Duluth on September 9, this was the first time since July 28 with a rainfall total of at least 1.00 inch.

Low temperature forecast for Wednesday morning, September 11. Source: https://graphical.weather.gov

High temperature forecast for Wednesday, September 11

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For those wanting summer to stick around a while longer, well you’re in luck! Computer models continue to show a massive upper level high pressure ridge taking hold for most of next week which means well above normal temperatures for the Northland.

Note: Duluth’s normal highs in mid September are generally in the mid 60s, highs next week could be well into the 70s, possibly as warm as the 80s! It also looks humid next week with multiple days having dew points in the 60s to around 70 degrees.

Source: 00z European model; https://www.pivotalweather.com

Here’s what the temperature anomaly forecast looks like for next week given the pattern that is shown above. Source: 12z GEFS model; https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/

…Weather Summary…

Upper level trough covered the Pacific Northwest today while an upper level ridge was in place across the southern/eastern U.S. In between the trough and ridge is a southwest 500mb flow which stretched from the Rockies to the upper Midwest.

The baroclinic zone is rather impressive today with 850mb temperatures of +8C in far northern Minnesota to +30C in eastern Colorado.

A front will remain nearly stationary extending from north-central Nebraska to the Minnesota/Iowa border through Wednesday night. Near and slightly north of this front expect clusters of showers, thunderstorms and heavy rain through Wednesday night. The Northland will be well north of this front through Wednesday night so any rain we get this far north through Wednesday evening should be lighter compared to areas farther south.

Will see the aforementioned front lift NE as a warm front Thursday in response to a deepening area of low pressure which tracks northeast out of eastern South Dakota. Expect waves of rain and embedded thunderstorms across the Northland on Thursday with downpours likely as higher levels of moisture advect north into our area.

As mentioned above, we could get a few thunderstorms especially on Thursday, this is when we should get a push of higher elevated CAPE into the Northland as the low and warm front move closer to the area.

Lows tonight will range from the middle 40s to middle 50s with north winds shifting to the east. Highs Wednesday will be in the lower 50s to around 60 degrees.

Low pressure with its warm front and cold front lift north/east of the area on Friday but gusty west winds, clouds and some drizzle or light rain should continue across the Northland on Friday with another cool day with highs in the mid 40s to mid 50s.

Will begin to warm up this weekend with highs by Sunday climbing into the 70s over much of the area, these warmer temperatures should continue through most of next week the way it looks now.

Forecast for Duluth and Superior

.Tonight… Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 48 to 52. Wind northwest around 10 mph becoming northeast late.

.Wednesday… Windy and cooler. Mostly cloudy. Some light rain or drizzle possible. Patchy fog possible. High 52 to 55. Wind east 15 to 30 mph.

.Thursday… Windy. Occasional rain. Fog and drizzle. A few thunderstorms possible. High 50 to 55. Wind east 15 to 30 mph.

Normal temperatures for Wednesday

  • High 67
  • Low 48
  • Sunrise Wednesday 6:41 AM CDT
  • Sunset Wednesday 7:29 PM CDT

Thanks for reading!

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