A strong late summer storm is affecting the upper Midwest and western Great Lakes today. The center of low pressure as of late Thursday afternoon was over western Minnesota and is lifting to the north/northeast. Source: https://www.spc.noaa.gov
Radar loop from Thursday, September 12, 2019.
Deformation rain band in North Dakota (NW of low pressure) waves of rain and thunder (some severe) in the warm/humid air (E of low pressure)
Today’s storm is a classic Mid-Latitude Cyclone. Fall is fast approaching when you see systems like the one we have today.
Moisture source extends from around the Baja region northeast to eastern Minnesota, then into Ontario, then the moisture gets thrown back into North Dakota on the backside of low pressure which was near Fargo, ND late this Thursday afternoon. Impressive!
Goes-16 Lower Level water vapor satellite loop from Thursday, September 12, 2019. A large and impressive storm impacting the Northern Plains, upper Midwest and western Great Lakes today.
18z HRRR model radar forecast valid through 7 PM Friday. Scattered showers, heavy at times with a few thunderstorms continue across the Northland tonight with coverage decreasing from SW-NE overnight. Areas of drizzle and light rain showers on Friday.
Tornado Watch is in effect until 10 PM this evening for parts of southeast Minnesota, southwest Wisconsin and northeast Iowa (red shaded area on map) Source: https://www.spc.noaa.gov
Check out these 2-day rainfall totals in parts of southeast South Dakota and southwest Minnesota where 5 to nearly 10 inches of rain have fallen since Tuesday, this has led to widespread flooding and some road closures in those areas. Source: https://lab.weathermodels.com
Low temperature forecast for Friday morning, September 13. Source: https://graphical.weather.gov
High temperature forecast for Friday, September 13.
Rainfall Reports from Thursday, September 12, 2019
Note: Totals listed below through about 6 PM Thursday
- Walker, MN: 1.26″
- Brainerd, MN: 0.96″
- Ashland, WI: 0.96″
- Superior, WI (Airport) 0.95″
- Hayward, WI: 0.61″
- International Falls, MN: 0.61″
- Hinckley, MN: 0.58″
- Duluth, MN (Airport) 0.51″
- Siren, WI: 0.51″
- Chisholm-Hibbing, MN: 0.43″
- Solon Springs, WI: 0.39″
- Grand Rapids, MN: 0.35″
- Orr, MN: 0.29″
Warmer days ahead, just have to get through Friday.
Tonight and Friday’s weather will be controlled by low pressure which moves northeast out of far southeast North Dakota. This is a well developed system with strong mid and upper level winds south/east of the surface low this afternoon. RAP model analysis at 6 PM Thursday showing 60 knot mid level winds from northern Kansas to southern Minnesota with upper level winds to 90 knots from south-central Nebraska to western Minnesota. North and east of these stronger winds aloft is where the greatest lift in the atmosphere is occurring, and is also where you will find the strongest warm air and moisture advection.
Instability has been steadily increasing across the Northland this afternoon with elevated CAPE reaching 500-1000 J/kg over most of the area, this has led to the development of scattered thunderstorms this afternoon in some parts of the area. Otherwise we’ve seen light rain, drizzle and fog with bands of heavier rain also occurring today.
Drizzle, fog and light rain will continue in the area tonight with downpours and a few thunderstorms also likely especially before Midnight. Low pressure is forecast to move into the Red River Valley of northwest Minnesota by daybreak with a dry slot passing over the Northland later tonight which will result in mostly spotty showers occurring overnight.
Will be on the south side of low pressure on Friday as it moves into southern Ontario. Wrap around light showers and drizzle will occur in the Northland on Friday with gusty west winds, mostly cloudy skies and some cold air advection. Note: 850mb temperatures of +10 to +15C at 1 AM Friday, falling to +5 to +8C by 1 PM Friday.
Temps will hold fairly steady tonight remaining in the 50s with highs Friday also in the 50s, possibly up around 60 degrees in a few spots in northwest Wisconsin.
East winds tonight will shift south, then to the southwest or west-northwest on Friday. Wind gusts 20 to 30 mph this evening and again on Friday.
Keeping an eye on Saturday afternoon-Saturday night time frame for possible isolated shower/thunderstorm development as a fast moving disturbance moves out of the Northern Plains while instability builds north/east into parts of the Northland Saturday night.
Warmer weather is still expected from this weekend through next week. Highs Saturday should get back into the 60s to lower 70s with highs Sunday in the mid 60s to mid 70s. Even warmer temperatures are possible next week which could include highs of near 80 or into the 80s between Monday and Thursday the way it looks now. Also looks rather muggy next week, especially the middle of the week with dew points in the 60s!
Forecast for Duluth and Superior
.Tonight… Windy with fog and drizzle. Light rain with scattered downpours and isolated thunderstorms. Low 49 to 52. Wind east 15 to 30 mph with gusts to 40 mph this evening.
.Friday… Breezy. Mostly cloudy (few peeks of sun possible) Some drizzle or light rain showers. High 52 to 57. Wind west 15 to 30 mph.
.Saturday… Partly to mostly cloudy. High 65 to 70. Wind south 10 to 15 mph.
Normal temperatures for Friday
- High 66
- Low 47
- Sunrise Friday 6:44 AM CDT
- Sunset Friday 7:25 PM CDT
Thanks for reading!