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Scattered showers tonight-Friday AM; frost threat Saturday AM; strong t-storms possible Sunday-Monday

A little more rain on the way!

Scattered areas of rain will pass through the Northland later this evening into Friday morning with mainly dry weather expected by Friday afternoon.

18z NAM-WRF model radar forecast valid from 7 PM this evening to 7 PM Friday. Source: https://weathermodels.com

Source: https://lab.weathermodels.com

Our next system is a quick mover and will be out of the Northland by Friday afternoon.

Look at how fast mid level moisture is moving off to the east today from the Northern Rockies into the Northern Plains and upper Midwest per Goes-16 water vapor satellite imagery. Source: https://weather.cod.edu

Source: https://www.spc.noaa.gov

Low temperature reports from Thursday morning, September 26, 2019. Source: https://www.weather.gov/dlh/

  • Chisholm-Hibbing, MN: 29 F
  • Bigfork, MN: 30 F
  • Eveleth, MN: 31 F
  • Solon Springs, WI: 32 F
  • Pine River, MN: 32 F
  • Hill City, MN: 34 F
  • Cook, MN: 34 F
  • Moose Lake, MN: 34 F
  • International Falls, MN: 35 F
  • Deer River, MN: 36 F
  • Aitkin, MN: 36 F
  • Orr, MN: 36 F
  • Superior, WI (Airport) 36 F
  • Walker, MN: 36 F
  • Hinckley, MN: 37 F
  • Silver Bay, MN: 37 F
  • Two Harbors, MN: 37 F
  • Minong, WI: 37 F
  • Esko, MN: 38 F
  • Isabella, MN: 38 F
  • Hayward, WI: 38 F
  • South Range, WI: 39 F
  • Cloquet, MN: 39 F

Note: Low temperature of 40 degrees at the Duluth Airport Thursday morning, September 26, this is the coldest temperature in Duluth since June 13 when the low was also 40 degrees.

Low temperature forecast for Friday morning, September 27. Source: https://graphical.weather.gov

High temperature forecast for Friday, September 27

Still looking at a stormy weather pattern in the Northland for late this weekend into early next week with periods of rain and thunderstorms while a major winter storm (possible blizzard conditions) impacts the Northern Rockies this weekend.

Source: 12z European ensemble model 9.25.19; https://weathermodels.com

Powerful winter storm gets going Saturday morning in parts of Montana with snow and wind increasing throughout the day Saturday. Snow shows up as blue colors on the map below.

Source: 18z NAM-WRF model 9.26.19

Note: Radar forecast below is from 7 AM Saturday to 1 AM Sunday.

Big time problems on the way for the Northern Rockies this weekend as a potentially historic late September winter storm hits that area.

Source: https://www.weather.gov/tfx/

Source: https://www.weather.gov/mso/

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…Weather Summary…

A nice sunny start to today but clouds have been increasing from west to east this afternoon as the next low to affect the Northland approaches from the west.

Tonight’s system is pretty strong but it is lacking moisture as precipitable water only gets into the 0.90 to 1.10 inch range. A strong low level jet of 40-50 knots will be in place ahead of the low which will advect the aforementioned moisture into the Northland tonight, while a corridor of strong winds aloft >120 knots stretches from North Dakota to Lake Superior tonight which will provide some extra lift in the atmosphere. The end result from all this will be for some showers to affect northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin tonight into Friday morning.

Lows tonight will be milder compared to Thursday morning’s lows due to the clouds, southerly flow and showers. Lows tonight will range from the middle 40s to middle 50s with S-SW winds 10 to 20 mph.

Rain showers are possible Friday morning especially from east-central Minnesota into northern Wisconsin due to a possible F-GEN (frontogenesis) band of rain which may develop and impact portions of the Northland Friday morning.

Drier weather is expected Friday afternoon and this should continue through the day Saturday as will see low pressure pass north of Lake Superior on Friday while high pressure builds into the upper Midwest and upper Great Lakes on Saturday. Rain chances diminish as the low exits while the high moves in.

Highs on Friday will be in the 50s to lower 60s with winds shifting to NW at 10 to 20 mph with gusts to around 30 mph.

Frost threat returns to the Northland Friday night-Saturday morning with lows in the 30s to around 40 degrees with some 20s possible in the typical cold spots.

Scattered showers could move into parts of the Northland Saturday night with a better chance for showers on Sunday. This is all ahead of a powerful fall storm which will impact the Northland late this weekend into early next week. A warm front surges north out of the Central Plains on Sunday with increasing amounts of elevated CAPE, this should cause some thunderstorms to break out in our area Sunday and Sunday night with even a risk for stronger storms (hail threat) The risk for showers and thunderstorms continues Monday as a warm front continues to lift northward while a cold front moves out of the Dakotas.

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Forecast for Duluth and Superior

.Tonight… Breezy. Mostly cloudy. Occasional showers developing. Low 50 to 53. Wind south 10 to 20 mph with gusts to 25 mph.

.Friday… Breezy. Showers possible in the morning otherwise partly to mostly cloudy. High 57 to 61. Wind southwest 10 to 20 mph becoming northwest 15 to 25 mph.

.Saturday… Partly cloudy. High 56 to 61. Wind becoming northeast 5 to 15 mph.

Normal temperatures for Friday

  • High 60
  • Low 42
  • Sunrise Friday 7:02 AM CDT
  • Sunset Friday 6:57 PM CDT

Thanks for reading!

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