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Frost Advisory issued for parts of the Northland. Isolated showers early this evening; rain returns Thursday night; frost threat Saturday morning; stormy weather Sunday-Monday

Frost advisory is in effect from late tonight til 9 AM Thursday for parts of northern and northeast Minnesota including the cities of Bigfork, International Falls, Crane Lake, Orr, Cook, Ely, Hibbing and Isabella. Overnight lows ranging from 32 to 36 degrees in the advisory area with widespread frost expected by Thursday morning. Note: Frost could harm sensitive outdoor vegetation.

Map below shows when we usually get our first freeze in the Northland (temperature of 32 F)

The average date for first freeze in Duluth is September 30th, and at International Falls the first freeze typically occurs on September 14th. Still waiting for the first freeze of the season at Duluth and International Falls.

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A very stormy Tuesday evening in portions of northwest Wisconsin with a swath of 1 to around 3 inches of rain along with several reports of hail, some as large as ping pong ball size. Note: Storm and rainfall reports below.

Watch the explosion of severe thunderstorms (orange and red colors on map, colder cloud tops) late Tuesday afternoon on this Goes-16 infrared satellite loop. Severe storms erupted in western/northern Iowa Tuesday afternoon, with development farther northeast early Tuesday evening. Source: https://weather.cod.edu

Local Storm Reports from Tuesday, September 24, 2019. Source: https://www.weather.gov/dlh/

  • 8:30 PM: HAIL — 0.25 inch. 2 ENE Mercer, WI (Iron County)
  • 8:19 PM: HAIL — 0.70 inch. 2 S Winter, WI (Sawyer County)
  • 8:16 PM: HAIL — 0.25 inch. 2 SSE Winter, WI (Sawyer County)
  • 8:09 PM: HAIL — 0.50 inch. 5 NW Winter, WI (Sawyer County)
  • 7:35 PM: HAIL — 0.70 inch. Mason, WI (Bayfield County)
  • 7:33 PM: HAIL — 1.25 inch. 7 NE Little Round Lake, WI (Sawyer County) Half dollar size hail.
  • 7:20 PM: HAIL — 1.00 inch. 4 SW Seeley, WI (Sawyer County) Quarter size hail.
  • 7:17 PM: HAIL — 0.50 inch. 1 NW Mellen, WI (Ashland County)
  • 7:15 PM: HAIL — 1.25 inch. 4 SW Seeley, WI (Sawyer County) Half dollar size hail.
  • 7:13 PM: HAIL — 1.50 inch. 4 WSW Seeley, WI (Sawyer County) Ping pong ball size hail.
  • 7:00 PM: HAIL — 0.25 inch. 5 WSW Seeley, WI (Sawyer County)
  • 6:58 PM: HAIL — 0.75 inch. 4 NNW Drummond, WI (Bayfield County)

Rainfall Reports for September 24-25, 2019. Source: https://www.weather.gov/dlh/

Note: Totals listed below are through 7 AM Wednesday, September 25.

  • Butternut, WI: 2.84″
  • 1 NW Glidden, WI: 1.69″
  • International Falls, MN: 0.94″
  • 2 NW Stone Lake, WI: 0.90″
  • Hurley, WI: 0.72″
  • 4 W Clam Lake, WI: 0.72″
  • Kabetogama, MN: 0.60″
  • Hayward, WI: 0.56″
  • Spooner, WI: 0.48″
  • Orr, MN: 0.29″
  • Siren, WI: 0.18″
  • Grand Marais, MN: 0.12″
  • Bigfork, MN: 0.12″
  • Ashland, WI: 0.11″
  • Hibbing, MN: 0.03″
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Low temperature forecast for Thursday morning, September 26. Source: https://graphical.weather.gov

High temperature forecast for Thursday, September 26.

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18z NAM-WRF model radar forecast valid from 7 PM this evening to 1 PM Friday. Source: https://weathermodels.com

A few showers will continue to move SE across the Northland this evening followed by mainly dry weather overnight through most of the day Thursday. Some rain returns Thursday night, but the rain should end from west to east by Noon Friday the way it looks now.

Snow could be falling Friday morning in parts of western Ontario as dynamic cooling occurs N/NW of a surface low (red L on map) Snow is getting closer to the Northland!

Source: 18z NAM model; https://weather.cod.edu

Looks like an active weather pattern setting up late this weekend into the middle of next week with a strong trough to the west and a strong ridge to the southeast, this sets up a potentially active SW flow aloft across the Plains and upper Midwest. Heavy snow and possible blizzard conditions in the cold air across the Northern Rockies with periods of rain and thunderstorms and possibly some severe weather on the warm side of the trough. Stay tuned

Source: 12z European ensemble model; https://weathermodels.com

Snow Lovers Rejoice! A major winter storm is on the way this weekend across portions of the Northern Rockies, check out this forecast from the Great Falls, Montana National Weather Service.

…Weather Summary…

There is a lot of weather to talk about, it’s been an active month around here, and it doesn’t show any signs of quieting down for the next 5-7 days.

Watching more rain chances through the middle of next week, a couple frost threats, possible thunderstorms and severe weather, and much cooler weather mid to late next week.

Widely scattered showers will continue to push SE across the Northland this evening. These showers are developing because of the cold temperatures aloft with 500mb temperatures around -24C, also with such a cold air mass over the area, the freezing levels are quite low so it won’t take much for a few ice balls (small hail) to fall from the sky early this evening, and there may even be an occasional flash of lightning in the most intense showers.

Things will quiet down overnight through most of the day Thursday. It will be cool tonight with lows in the 30s and 40s with areas of frost likely north of Duluth. Highs Thursday will be in the upper 50s to middle 60s. West winds tonight 10 to 15 mph becoming southwest at 15 to 25 mph on Thursday.

The next system which will impact the Northland will move quickly to the east out of southern Alberta on Thursday, the low will pass north of Lake Superior on Friday. Warm air and moisture advection will occur ahead of this system late Thursday with a strong low level jet of 40 to around 55 knots forecast to develop. Occasional showers will be found over the Northland from late Thursday afternoon through Friday morning as the aforementioned low swings a warm front and cold front through the area.

Note: An even greater chance for widespread frost exists over much of the Northland Saturday morning, even areas by Lake Superior could see some patchy frost come Saturday morning.

Saturday looks dry, but rain chances increase on Sunday.

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Forecast for Duluth and Superior

.Tonight… A few showers early. Mostly cloudy with some clearing late. Low 40 to 45. Wind west 10 to 20 mph.

.Thursday… Breezy. Partly cloudy with increasing cloudiness late. High 60 to 65. Wind southwest 10 to 20 mph with gusts to 25 mph.

.Friday… Showers possible in the morning. Partly to mostly cloudy. Breezy. High 60 to 65. Wind southwest 10 to 20 mph becoming northwest in the afternoon.

Normal temperatures for Thursday

  • High 61
  • Low 42
  • Sunrise Thursday 7:01 AM CDT
  • Sunset Thursday 6:59 PM CDT

Thanks for reading!

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