Cool week ahead; scattered rain/snow showers this evening; mainly dry Monday; rain and some snow Tuesday

And the wet fall continues! Watching another system on Tuesday which looks to bring widespread rain and some snow to northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin, this will be followed by another possible rain event late Friday, with potentially a stronger storm around October 20-22.

Tuesday’s system is forecast to move east/southeast out of the Northern Plains and is forecast to deepen as it heads into the Great Lakes.

Source: 18z NAM model; https://www.tropicaltidbits.com

Source: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov

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Cyclonic flow remained over the upper Midwest today with cold temperatures aloft and some slightly warmer temperatures near the surface, net result from this was another day featuring scattered rain and snow showers in the Northland.

Snow in blue, rain in green on radar loop below which ends at 4:45 PM Sunday, October 13, 2019.

Source: Goes-16 visible satellite imagery, Sunday, October 13, 2019; https://weather.cod.edu

An absolute beast! Powerful storm which brought the early season blizzard to parts of the Northern Plains the last few days is finally exiting into Canada today per Goes-16 water imagery. The size of this storm continues to amaze me, almost looks like the low in Ontario is trying to connect with the system farther off to the east, perhaps a little Fujiwhara effect?

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New snowfall record set for October 12 at International Falls, Minnesota with 0.7 inches of snow on Saturday. The previous snowiest October 12 was in 2006 with 0.5 inches of snow.

Note: Duluth had its 5th snowiest October 12 on record on Saturday with 0.8 inches of snow. The snowfall record for October 12 is 2.3 inches set in 2006.

Note: A top 5 coldest high temperature on record in Brainerd, Hibbing and Ashland on October 12 with a high on Saturday of 38 degrees in Brainerd and Ashland, and 35 degrees in Hibbing.

Low temperature forecast for Monday morning, October 14. Source: https://graphical.weather.gov

High temperature forecast for Monday, October 14

Temperature departure map for the week of October 6, 2019. Source: https://sercc.com/

Precipitation departure map for the week of October 6, 2019.

Temperature and Precipitation report for Duluth, Minnesota for October 6-12, 2019

High Temperatures/Departure from Normal

  • 10/6: 59F/+3 degrees above normal
  • 10/7: 63F/+7 degrees above normal
  • 10/8: 70F/+15 degrees above normal
  • 10/9: 72F/+17 degrees above normal
  • 10/10: 59F/+5 degrees above normal
  • 10/11: 60F/+6 degrees above normal
  • 10/12: 37F/-16 degrees below normal

Low Temperatures/Departure from Normal

  • 10/6: 44F/+6 degrees above normal
  • 10/7: 39F/+1 degree above normal
  • 10/8: 47F/+10 degrees above normal
  • 10/9: 53F/+16 degrees above normal
  • 10/10: 52F/+15 degrees above normal
  • 10/11: 33F/-3 degrees below normal
  • 10/12: 33F/-3 degrees below normal

Average temperature for the week of October 6: 51.5 degrees; +5.6 degrees above normal. Source: https://www.dnr.state.mn.us

  • Total Precipitation: 1.06″
  • Normal: 0.70″
  • Departure: +0.36″ above normal

State average for Minnesota for the week of October 6, 2019

  • Temperature: 50.2 degrees
  • Departure: +1.4 degrees above normal
  • Precipitation: 1.03″
  • Departure: +0.42″ above normal
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…Weather Summary…

Surface and upper level lows are finally starting to pull away from the Northland today, but both features remained close enough to our area to produce another day of scattered rain and snow showers along with cool temps with highs in the upper 30s to lower 40s.

Scattered rain and possibly a few snow showers will continue to move SE across the Northland this evening followed by partly to mostly cloudy skies overnight with isolated flurries/snow showers. Lows tonight will be in the middle 20s to lower 30s with west to northwest winds 10 to 20 mph.

Monday is looking a lot drier compared to the last few days, but far northern Minnesota may see a little snow or rain at times. I don’t think will have a whole lot of sun on Monday with mostly cloudy skies continuing, but just like the last few days we could see some breaks open up in the clouds allowing for at least a little bit of sunshine from time to time. Highs on Monday will range from around 40 to 45 degrees with southwest winds 10 to 15 mph.

A wet Tuesday is looking increasingly likely as a surface and upper level low move across the upper Midwest. Lift will increase as this system approaches, and we should see widespread light to moderate rain develop in northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin. Temperatures aloft are expected to cool to around -2 to -3C at 850mb, and around 0C at 925mb during the day Tuesday while thickness values fall to below 540, this supports the idea that rain will mix with or change to snow in some parts of the Northland on Tuesday, but low level temps may be too warm to support frozen precipitation, so at the moment this doesn’t look to be much of a snow event in our area, but there is at least a low risk that a small part of the area could pick up a few inches of snow on Tuesday. Stay tuned.

Precipitation chances diminish from W-E Tuesday night as low pressure moves toward the Eastern Great Lakes.

A somewhat calmer weather pattern mid week, before the pattern potentially becomes more active once again with rain chances sometime late Friday/early Saturday followed by a potentially larger/stronger storm coming out of the Rockies or Southern Plains around October 20-22. Note: Still looks warm enough for mostly rain with that system during the October 20-22 time frame, but still plenty of time for things to change.

Forecast for Duluth and Superior

.Tonight… Isolated showers this evening. Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 31 to 36. Wind west 10 to 15 mph.

.Monday… Mostly cloudy (few peeks of sun) High 40 to 45. Wind southwest 10 to 15 mph.

.Tuesday… Rain. High 38 to 43. Wind east 10 to 20 mph becoming north.

Normal temperatures for October 14

  • High 52
  • Low 36
  • Sunrise Monday 7:25 AM CDT
  • Sunset Monday 6:24 PM CDT

Thanks for reading!

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