Not a bad mid October day! Warmest temps today were found away from Lake Superior which isn’t much of a surprise given the wind direction which was out of the east today. Mid 50s to mid 60s for highs today in much of central and western Minnesota and over the eastern Dakotas with Canby and Madison, Minnesota (far SW part of the state) getting close to 70 degrees this afternoon!
Always fun picking out snow cover versus clouds on satellite imagery. Image below from Thursday morning, October 17 showing the snow cover left behind after last week’s blizzard which hit portions of North Dakota. Source: https://weather.cod.edu
Seeing a rather large temperature gradient today, ranging from the 30s in Ontario to the mid and upper 80s in eastern Colorado. Map below shows temperatures at around 5000 feet (850mb) Source: https://www.spc.noaa.gov
Ridge=quiet weather
Trough=stormy weather
Bomb cyclone=forget about it, 400 mph winds, 100+ inch rain totals, 300mb pressure drop, good luck.
And here’s how the pattern looks on Goes-16 water vapor imagery today, October 17, 2019. Quite an active weather pattern in place. Source: https://weather.cod.edu
Computer models continue to show a stronger low pressure system affecting the upper Midwest early next week. This storm could bring rain and gusty winds to northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin Sunday night through Tuesday with a chance for a little snow or a rain-snow mix in parts of the Northland Monday night into Tuesday. Stay tuned.
Winds out of the east late Sunday into Monday with gusts 20 to 35 mph near Lake Superior.
Low temperature forecast for Friday morning, October 18. Source: https://graphical.weather.gov
High temperature forecast for Friday, October 18
…Weather Summary…
Dry weather continues in the Northland tonight and Friday as high pressure remains over the central/eastern Great Lakes. Lows tonight will range from the lower 30s to lower 40s with east to southeast winds 5 to 15 mph. Highs on Friday will range from the upper 50s to middle 60s with 40s along the North Shore of Lake Superior.
Partly to mostly cloudy skies will be found over the area through Friday. Southerly low level jet really ramps up Friday with speeds of around 40 to 65 knots per model guidance, this will occur ahead of an eastward moving cold front coming out of the Northern Plains, this cold front will move through the Northland Friday night into Saturday.
Warm air and moisture advection will occur ahead of the cold front on Friday with 850mb temperatures ranging from around +5C in the Arrowhead to around +15C over the Brainerd Lakes vicinity. Low level moisture will increase Friday with precipitable water climbing to around 0.70-0.95 inches by Friday night.
Widely scattered showers are possible in the Northland Friday night, and there may even be an isolated thunderstorm with steepening mid level lapse rates moving in, but overall the thunder potential looks very low.
A few showers could linger into Saturday morning from eastern Minnesota into northern Wisconsin with generally dry weather expected Saturday afternoon. Winds will shift to the W-SW on Saturday with highs ranging from the lower 50s to lower 60s.
Most of Sunday is looking dry at the moment with rain chances holding off until Sunday night or possibly not until Monday.
Note: There’s another storm showing up on some model runs the last few days per Euro and GFS models around October 23-25, that one if it develops could produce a swath of accumulating snow somewhere in Minnesota or Wisconsin for the middle to end of next week.
Forecast for Duluth and Superior
.Tonight… Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 35 to 40. Wind east 10 to 20 mph.
.Friday… Partly to mostly cloudy. High 55 to 60 but cooler near Lake Superior. Wind southeast 10 to 20 mph.
.Saturday… A few showers possible early, otherwise partly to mostly cloudy. High 57 to 62. Wind west to southwest 10 to 20 mph.
Normal temperatures for October 18
- High 51
- Low 34
- Sunrise Friday 7:31 AM CDT
- Sunset Friday 6:17 PM CDT
Thanks for reading!
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