Lake wind keeps it cool near Lake Superior the next few days, milder temps inland; storm potential (mainly rain) early next week

Finally getting a bit of a break in what has been a wet/stormy fall around here. Dry on Thursday and during the day Friday, a few showers possible Friday night as a cold front moves through. A larger storm with wind and rain could affect the Northland around October 20-22, more on that a little further down in this post.

October 1-15, 2019 Climate Stats

Duluth, MN

  • Average temperature 47.8 degrees
  • Departure: +1.4 degrees above normal
  • Total Precipitation: 3.02″
  • Departure: +1.47″ above normal

Note: 11/15 or 73% of days had at least 0.01″ of precipitation from Oct. 1 to 15.

International Falls, MN

  • Average Temperature: 45.4 degrees
  • Departure: +1.1 degrees above normal
  • Total Precipitation: 3.65″
  • Departure: +2.53″ above normal

Temperature Departure

Total Precipitation

Total Precipitation % of Mean

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Rainfall Reports from around the Northland; Source https://www.weather.gov/dlh/

Note: Totals listed below are for the 24-hour period from 7 AM October 15 to 7 AM October 16, 2019

  • 3 S Ashland, WI: 0.81″
  • Hurley, WI: 0.66″
  • 4 W Clam Lake, WI: 0.48″
  • Kabetogama, MN: 0.32″
  • International Falls, MN: 0.29″
  • 1.2 W Solon Springs, WI: 0.28″
  • 25 E Ely, MN: 0.18″
  • 3 E Orr, MN: 0.15″
  • Duluth, MN: 0.11″
  • 4 E Island Lake, MN: 0.11″
  • Embarrass, MN: 0.07″

Low temperature forecast for Thursday morning, October 17. Source: https://graphical.weather.gov

High temperature forecast for Thursday, October 17

The next few days look pretty quiet around the Northland, but things may change as we get into next week.

Computer models continue to show an area of low pressure lifting northeast out of the Rockies, but there are differences with the storm track.

The European and its ensemble model from Wednesday show the low developing farther south over eastern Colorado on Sunday, low pressure then lifts northeast through Tuesday shown as the red and pink lines on the map below.

The GEFS model from Wednesday shows the low much farther north as it moves NE out of eastern Wyoming or western South Dakota from Sunday through Tuesday, October 20-22.

At the moment this system looks to be mostly a rain maker for northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin, but some snow may mix with the rain in some parts of the area from late Monday/early Tuesday.

Gusty east winds are possible near Lake Superior due to this storm sometime in the Sunday to Monday night time frame the way it looks now.

Stay tuned!

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…Weather Summary…

Mostly cloudy skies were found over most of the area today with occasional sunny breaks. Temps remained on the cool side today with highs in the 40s. Note: Normal highs on October 16 are in the lower 50s.

For tonight, mostly cloudy with some clearing possible later in the night. Isolated sprinkles are possible in spots during the evening. Lows tonight will range from around 30 to the upper 30s with a variable wind direction.

Temperatures will be a little milder Thursday, but really just close to normal for this time of year with highs in the upper 40s to lower 50s. Winds will shift to the E-SE on Thursday which will keep temperatures cooler along the North Shore with highs in the low to mid 40s. Sky conditions on Thursday are expected to vary between mostly cloudy to partly sunny.

Southerly wind increases Friday with a 40-60 knot low level jet developing during the day out ahead of a cold front which will move east out of the Northern Plains. Will get some warm air and moisture advection to take place ahead of the cold front due to the strengthening low level jet, and this may cause a few showers to break out Friday night. Highs on Friday will range from the 50s to lower 60s, but a SE wind will keep temps cooler along the North Shore (40s)

Winds will shift to the W-SW on Saturday which should lead to a milder day even near Lake Superior, I think there’s a decent chance we hit 60 degrees in Duluth Saturday, might even be a little warmer than that! A pocket of cold temperatures aloft with 500mb temps of -25 to -30C will move into the area on Saturday, and this may cause a few isolated showers to develop during the afternoon hours.

Forecast for Duluth and Superior

.Tonight… Mostly cloudy this evening. Partly to mostly cloudy overnight. Low 33 to 38. Wind northwest 5 to 15 mph becoming light and variable.

.Thursday… Partly to mostly cloudy. High 47 to 52. Wind east to southeast 10 to 15 mph.

.Friday… Partly to mostly cloudy. High 54 to 59 but cooler near Lake Superior. Wind east to southeast 10 to 20 mph. Note: A few showers possible Friday night.

Normal Temperatures for October 17

  • High 51
  • Low 35
  • Sunrise Thursday 7:29 AM CDT
  • Sunset Thursday 6:18 PM CDT

Thanks for reading!

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