Wet, windy storm on the way! NE winds 30-50 mph possible near Lake Superior on Monday (Gale Warning in effect) Colder temps mid to late week, few snow/rain showers

…Storm Impacts for northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin…

1) Strong east to northeast winds especially near Lake Superior where wind gusts of 30 to around 50 mph are possible Monday into Monday evening (isolated power outages are possible)

2) Widespread rain develops from south to north on Monday. Downpours possible.

3) A rain-snow mix Tuesday, especially in western portions of the area.

4) Low chance for lakeshore flooding Monday afternoon and evening along the North Shore of Lake Superior.

Note: Record daily maximum precipitation total for October 21 in Duluth is 1.09 inches set in 1949. There is a chance we break this record on Monday.

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Rainfall totals of around 1 to 2 inches are possible in northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin from late tonight through Tuesday morning, with the greatest amounts expected to setup from north-central into northeast Minnesota.

Source: 12z HREF model 10.20.19; https://www.spc.noaa.gov/

Radar forecast in 3 hour increments from 7 AM to 10 PM Monday. Source: 18z NAM-Nest model; https://weather.cod.edu

Note: Heavier rain in yellow and orange colors on images below.

And here’s the forecast radar animation from 7 PM Sunday to 1 AM Wednesday.

A few showers are possible across the Northland tonight, but the more widespread rain shouldn’t begin to affect the area until Monday morning as it lifts from south to north out of southern Minnesota. A dry slot is then expected to push north/west into northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin later Monday afternoon or Monday evening which will push the steadier rain farther to the west.

Some rain will continue Tuesday on the backside of this strong low pressure system, and some of the rain may mix with snow especially in western portions of the Northland.

Our next storm looks impressive as it spins across the Western High Plains and Northern Plains today per Goes-16 water vapor imagery. Source: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com

Source: https://www.spc.noaa.gov

Low temperature forecast for Monday morning, October 21. Source: https://graphical.weather.gov

High temperature forecast for Monday, October 21

This is a pretty cool satellite loop from Sunday morning showing the erosion of low clouds and fog in Wisconsin. Source: https://weather.cod.edu

Weather Tidbits for Duluth, Minnesota

All but 2 weeks so far this fall (since September 1) have had an average temperature which have been above normal — See stats below.

Note: Meteorological fall ends on November 30.

Average temperature so far this fall in Duluth: 55.1 degrees; +3.4 degrees above normal.

  • Sept 1-7: 59.9 degrees (-0.2 degrees below normal)
  • Sept 8-14: 56.6 degrees (-0.9 degrees below normal)
  • Sept 15-21: 66.4 degrees (+11.8 degrees above normal)
  • Sept 22-28: 56.9 degrees (+5.3 degrees above normal)
  • Sept 29-Oct 5: 49.1 degrees (+0.4 degrees above normal)
  • Oct 6-12: 51.5 degrees (+5.6 degrees above normal)
  • Oct 13-19: 45.0 degrees (+1.8 degrees above normal)
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Temperature and Precipitation report for Duluth, Minnesota for October 13-19, 2019

High Temperatures/Departure from Normal

  • 10/13: 45F/-8 degrees below normal
  • 10/14: 50F/-3 degrees below normal
  • 10/15: 46F/-6 degrees below normal
  • 10/16: 47F/-5 degrees below normal
  • 10/17: 52F/+1 degree above normal
  • 10/18: 61F/+10 degrees above normal
  • 10/19: 67F/+17 degrees above normal

Low Temperatures/Departure from Normal

  • 10/13: 34F/-2 degrees below normal
  • 10/14: 33F/-3 degrees below normal
  • 10/15: 36F/+1 degree above normal
  • 10/16: 39F/+4 degrees above normal
  • 10/17: 36F/+1 degree above normal
  • 10/18: 40F/+6 degrees above normal
  • 10/19: 44F/+10 degrees above normal

Average temperature for the week of October 13: 45.0 degrees; +1.8 degrees above normal. Source: https://www.dnr.state.mn.us

  • Total Precipitation: 0.14 inches
  • Normal: 0.64 inches
  • Departure: -0.50 inches below normal

State Average for Minnesota for the week of October 13, 2019

  • Temperature: 41.7 degrees
  • Departure: -4.4 degrees below normal
  • Precipitation: 0.15 inches
  • Departure: -0.40 inches below normal

Temperature departure map for the week of October 19, 2019. Source: https://mrcc.illinois.edu

Precipitation departure map for the week of October 13, 2019.

…Weather Summary…

The last few days have had wonderful weather in the Northland, but things will be changing early this week as we get back into a stormier weather pattern which will be followed by a colder, but drier pattern for mid to late week.

Strong area of low pressure which was over southern South Dakota this afternoon is forecast to track northeast through the Tuesday as it reaches the western shores of Lake Superior. Central pressure of the low of around 996mb this afternoon is forecast to deepen to around 984-988mb by Monday night.

Increasing cloudiness tonight with a few showers possible as low pressure begins to affect our area. Lows tonight will be in the 40s with winds out of the east at 5 to 15 mph with gusts to 25 mph developing later tonight near Lake Superior.

Windy and rainy weather for Monday with the steadiest and heaviest rain lifting slowly from south to north from Monday morning into mid afternoon. Highs Monday ranging from the lower 40s to lower 50s with east winds 15 to 25 mph with gusts 30 to 50 mph possible near Lake Superior.

Rain lingers Monday night into Tuesday, but there will likely be a lull in the rainfall for a time late Monday afternoon or evening across eastern portions of the Northland as a dry slot pivots N/W into parts of the area, then as low pressure lifts north, the dry slot moves away which will be followed by some more light rain from late Monday night into Tuesday.

Colder temperatures will begin to move in on Tuesday as low pressure pulls away so will probably see the rain mix with some snow especially in western areas. Highs Tuesday ranging from the middle 30s to middle 40s.

A colder weather pattern should continue Wednesday through Friday, but it also looks less active with only a few snow or rain showers possible at times the way it looks now.

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Forecast for Duluth and Superior

.Tonight… Becoming breezy. Increasing cloudiness. Low 43 to 45. Wind east 10 to 15 mph with gusts to 25 mph developing late.

.Monday… Windy. Patchy drizzle and a few showers early with a steadier rain arriving between 8-11 AM. High 45 to 48. Wind east to northeast 20 to 35 mph with gusts to 50 mph possible.

.Tuesday… Windy. Light rain and drizzle. Mostly cloudy. High 40 to 45. Wind west to northwest 15 to 30 mph.

Normal Temperatures for October 21

  • High 50
  • Low 34
  • Sunrise Monday 7:35 AM CDT
  • Sunset Monday 6:11 PM CDT

Thanks for reading!

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