Very cold tonight and Thursday with gusty winds; little warmer Friday-Saturday; frigid early next week (record cold possible)

*Record low temperature tied at Hibbing, Minnesota. Low temperature of 5 degrees on November 5, 2019 ties the record low temperature for the date which was set on November 5, 1951 and tied on November 5, 1962. Note: Hibbing also had their 4th lowest maximum temperature on record for November 5 with a high on Tuesday of 24 degrees.

*2nd lowest maximum temperature on record for November 5 at Ashland, Wisconsin with a high on Tuesday of 28 degrees. Ashland also had their 3rd lowest minimum temperature on record for November 5 with a low on Tuesday of 13 degrees.

*3rd lowest maximum temperature on record for November 5 at International Falls, Minnesota with a high on Tuesday of 20 degrees.

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Low temperature forecast for Thursday morning, November 7. Source: https://graphical.weather.gov/

High temperature forecast for Thursday, November 7

A swath of about 2 to 5 inches of snow fell early this morning in southern Minnesota into portions of south-central Wisconsin.

Source: https://lab.weathermodels.com/

Milder times ahead?

Source: 12z European ensemble model 11.6.19; https://weathermodels.com/

Still a ways out, but I have been noticing some signs in long range model data for a milder weather pattern setting up around or a little after mid-month.

The European ensemble model is on board with a milder pattern, GEFS model not so much.

Watch how the green and purple colors disappear between November 13 and November 20. By the way the green and purple colors indicate well below normal temperatures.

Image below is for November 13 — Still have widespread very cold temperatures (well below normal for the time of year)

Fast forward to November 20 and gone are the frigid temperatures with the blue colors on the map indicating slightly below normal temps while above normal temps shown as orange colors on the map become more widespread and shift a little more to the east. Again this is a long ways out and could change, but there is at least some hope starting to show up in long range model data for some milder temperatures which may have a little more staying power beginning around or after the middle of the month.

One thing that looks to continue around here is a lack of precipitation/snowfall for the next 2 weeks with a dry bias still showing up in model data (brown colors on map) This doesn’t mean there won’t be some precipitation and snow the next 2 weeks, but precipitation amounts would be less than what we would typically get from now through November 21st.

Note: Duluth averages 13.7″ of snow in November, so far this November we’ve only had 1.4″ of snow, but no need to panic yet (if you like snow) as we’re only 6 days into the month!

Source: 12z European ensemble model 11.6.19

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Low temperature reports of 20F or colder from around the Northland from Wednesday morning, November 6, 2019. Source: https://www.weather.gov/dlh/

Babbitt, MN: 0F
Embarrass, MN: 1F
Cook, MN: 3F
Cotton, MN: 4F
Hibbing, MN: 5F
Bigfork, MN: 5F
Silver Bay, MN: 7F
Crane Lake, MN: 7F
2 E Celina, MN: 7F
Kabetogama, MN: 8F
Wolfridge, MN: 8F
Two Harbors, MN: 9F
Grand Marais Airport: 9F
Ely, MN: 9F
Orr, MN: 9F
Eveleth, MN: 9F
Solon Springs, WI: 9F
Pine River, MN: 10F
Cass Lake, MN: 10F
International Falls, MN: 11F
3 E Wright, MN: 11F
Butternut, WI: 11F
4 W Clam Lake, WI: 11F
Hayward, WI: 12F
Aitkin, MN: 12F
Moose Lake, MN: 12F
Walker, MN: 13F
Grand Marais: 13F
Grand Rapids, MN: 13F
Superior Airport: 13F
Ashland, WI: 13F
Duluth Airport: 17F
Siren, WI: 17F
Duluth Harbor: 19F
Brainerd, MN: 20F

…Weather Summary…

A reinforcing shot of cold air is moving into the Northland today and this next round of very cold temperatures sticks around into Thursday before we get a two-day ‘thaw’.

A few snow showers have been moving SE across the Northland today, otherwise more of the same with blustery conditions along with a little sunshine.

Cold? Yes, plenty cold! Airmass moving in has 850mb temperatures down to -18C which will be over the Northland on Thursday.

Partly to mostly cloudy skies will continue tonight with scattered flurries and snow showers. Light snowfall accumulations are possible near the larger inland lakes, including Lake of the Woods, Rainy Lake, Upper and Lower Red Lake, Lake Vermilion, Lake Winnibigoshish, Leech Lake and Lake Mille Lacs.

Very cold tonight with lows ranging from around zero to the low/mid teens. Winds will be out of the northwest at 10 to 15 mph with gusts to 30 mph possible along the North Shore of Lake Superior.

Very cold temperatures for Thursday with highs only in the middle teens to lower 20s (normal highs on November 7th are around 40 degrees)

Flurries or light snow showers may linger into Thursday afternoon near the larger inland lakes, and also along the South Shore of Lake Superior, otherwise we’re looking at partly cloudy to mostly sunny skies on Thursday with winds out of the west at 10 to 20 mph.

Southerly flow develops Friday as we get on the backside of high pressure which will be off to the SE while a clipper system approaches from the NW. Warm air advection ahead of this clipper could bring a little snow to northern Minnesota Friday night but not expecting much accumulation, maybe an inch at most. There will be a decent amount of warm air advection on Friday as 0C 850mb temps reach into southern portions of the Northland. Highs on Friday are forecast to be in the middle 20s to middle 30s.

Major differences showing up in model guidance for Saturday with the European model showing highs in the upper 30s to middle 40s over much of the Northland while other models are quite a bit cooler, highs mid 20s to around the freezing mark. Also seeing quite a bit of difference in the strength of another clipper system dropping SE for Saturday night-Sunday. NAM is a snowy solution, but the Euro and GFS aren’t having any of that with only flurries or a light dusting of snow in our area.

Note: Frigid blast of air still on the way early next week with daytime highs in the teens, overnight lows in the single digits below to single digits above zero. Record cold high temperatures are possible across the Northland early next week.