850mb temperature analysis from late Wednesday afternoon shows 0C or colder 850mb temperatures sitting north of Duluth, and this is where snow has been falling this afternoon, but farther south 850mb temps are too warm for snow at the moment, ranging from +1 to +5C. Eventually will see colder air push farther south/east later tonight as low pressure tracks northeast out of the Central Plains, once the air cools enough, will see the rain or mixed precipitation switch over to snow in Duluth and across other areas of the Northland.
Source: https://www.spc.noaa.gov/
Radar image from late Wednesday afternoon
Winter Storm Warning (pink) and Winter Weather Advisory (purple) in effect for parts of the Northland for tonight into Thursday morning. Source: https://www.weather.gov/dlh/
| Link to Road Conditions Minnesota – https://lb.511mn.org/mnlb/winterdriving/routeselect.jsf Wisconsin – https://511wi.gov/ | |
Here’s my snowfall forecast for tonight’s event
For Duluth and Superior: 1 to 3 inches of snow with the highest totals on top of the hill. Note: There is a slight chance for more than 3 inches of snow on top of the hill if the changeover from rain to snow occurs early enough.
Below the hill in the Twin Ports (lower elevation) snowfall amounts of around an inch due to more rain and mixing before things turn over to snow.
Thursday morning commute will be impacted by snow and mixed precipitation with snow/slush covered and slippery roads expected.
Radar forecast valid from 6 PM this evening to 3 PM Thursday.
Snow across the north tonight (blue) mix and rain farther south (pink and green) with a transition from rain to snow occurring from NW-SE early Thursday morning.
Snow ends by Thursday afternoon.
Source: 18z NAM-WRF model 11.20.19; https://weathermodels.com/
It’s been a quiet stretch in the Northland, but the pattern is changing, starting with tonight’s system which can be seen clearly on water vapor imagery today as it lifts NE out of the Rockies.
Source: https://weather.cod.edu/
Low temperature forecast for Thursday morning, November 21. Source: https://graphical.weather.gov/
High temperature forecast for Thursday, November 21
Could be a stormy pattern at times across the Northland for the next 2 weeks.
Source: 12z European ensemble model 11.20.19; https://weathermodels.com/
I’m continuing to monitor model trends on a potential storm, or perhaps more than one storm which may affect parts of the Northern Plains, upper Midwest and Great Lakes next week – Stay tuned!
Forecast for Duluth and Superior
| *Winter Weather Advisory for Duluth until 6 AM Thursday* | |
.Tonight… Rain and drizzle mixing with and changing to snow on top of the hill. Rain and drizzle below the hill, possibly mixing with snow overnight. Low 30 to 35. Wind east to northeast 10 to 20 mph becoming north toward dawn.
.Thursday… Blustery. Snow during the morning followed by some partial clearing during the afternoon. Total snowfall accumulations of 1 to 3 inches. High 30 to 35 with temperatures falling into the 20s. Wind north to northwest 15 to 25 mph.
.Friday… Partly cloudy. High 30 to 34. Wind southwest 10 to 20 mph.
| Normal temperatures for November 21 High 32 Low 19 Sunrise Thursday 7:20 AM CST Sunset Thursday 4:29 PM CST | |
Thanks for reading!
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