Mild and dry! February 2020, 3rd driest Feb. on record in Duluth, Minn.

Warmer air continues to move east into the Northland today with 850mb temperatures climbing above 0C after being well below zero the last few days.

Source: RAP model; https://www.spc.noaa.gov/

A look at surface temperatures from late Saturday afternoon. Note: We won’t be seeing any 60s or 70s quite yet in the Northland, still a little too early for that, but we should have widespread 40s in our area on Sunday.

Source: RTMA model; https://lab.weathermodels.com/

Computer models are showing a rather stout ridge moving over the Plains for next weekend (~March 6 to 8) This could lead to widespread 40s and 50s for daytime highs in northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin next weekend, while 60s are possible in portions of western/southern Minnesota. 70s and possibly even some 80s in the Central Plains for next weekend the way it looks now.

Source: 12z European ensemble model 2.29.20; https://weathermodels.com/

I’m still not seeing a consistent enough signal in model guidance which would indicate a more active weather pattern setting up across the Northland through mid-March, instead it continues to look pretty quiet with mostly minor precipitation events affecting our area over the next 2 weeks.

Split flow looks to continue into mid-March with an active southern branch, while the northern branch (polar jet) remains over Canada. Note: Need to see some phasing of the jets, or the southern jet to lift farther north before we have a chance to get a more significant storm to affect the Northland, and if anything its looking like we’d have a better chance at getting rain instead of snow should a larger storm take aim at our area toward mid-March.

Source: 12z European ensemble model 2.29.20; https://weathermodels.com/

March begins on Sunday – Here are the Climate Normals for March at Duluth, Minnesota.

Low temperature forecast for Sunday morning, March 01, 2020. Source: https://weathermodels.com/

High temperature forecast for Sunday, March 01, 2020.

…Weather Summary…

A few low pressure systems will be passing through the upper Midwest the next few days, but they won’t be bringing any precipitation to our area.

An occluded front/trough moves through the Northland Sunday morning, followed by a cold front Sunday afternoon/evening. Snow and mixed precipitation tied to this system will remain over Ontario on Sunday, although its possible that we may see a few snow, sleet or rain showers in extreme northern Minnesota later Sunday as that area will be clipped by a strong vort max which moves east out of Saskatchewan and across Ontario on Sunday – See water vapor loop below.

Source: https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/

Low temperatures tonight will range from the upper teens to the 20s with highs Sunday in the upper 30s to middle 40s with a few locations possibly getting into the 47-52 degree range.

Southerly winds tonight 10 to 20 mph becoming west to southwest Sunday at 10 to 20 mph with gusts to 30 mph.

Dry weather continues Monday with highs in the 30s.

Note: There could be a little snow or a mix bag of precipitation types in parts of the Northland the middle of next week (March 4-5) but this doesn’t look like a big deal at the moment.

Note: It’s now official! February 2020 will end up as the 3rd driest February on record in Duluth, Minnesota with just 0.18 inches of precipitation for the entire month! The driest February on record in Duluth occurred in 1877 with 0.10 inches of precipitation; 2nd driest was in 1988 with 0.13 inches of precipitation.

Forecast for Duluth and Superior

.Tonight… Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 20 to 25. Wind south to southeast 10 to 15 mph.

.Sunday… Partly to mostly cloudy. High 45 to 50. Wind south 5 to 15 mph becoming southwest 15 to 25 mph.

.Monday… Partly cloudy. High 33 to 38. Wind west 10 to 20 mph.

Thanks for reading!

Tim