Some wet snow, freezing rain and rain through Thursday evening, winter weather advisory in effect for parts of the Northland

-Winter Weather Advisory has been issued for parts of northeast Minnesota from 10 PM this evening to Noon Thursday including the cities of International Falls, Crane Lake, Ely, Hibbing, Duluth, Cloquet, Moose Lake, Two Harbors and Silver Bay

-Winter Weather Advisory for far northeast Minnesota in effect from 4 AM to 4 PM Thursday including the cities of Grand Marais and Isabella.

-Snow and a wintry mix of precipitation in the advisory area with ice accumulations of a light glaze to one tenth of an inch possible along with a few inches of snowfall.

-Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the Thursday morning or evening commute.

Here’s my snowfall forecast through Thursday evening

*2 to 4 inches of snow across far northern Minnesota including International Falls, Bigfork, Orr, Cook, Ely and Grand Marais with most of this snow falling later tonight through Thursday morning.

*2 to 4 inches of snow in parts of northwest Wisconsin including Ashland and Hayward with most of this snow falling Thursday afternoon or Thursday evening.

*1 to 2 inches of snow for the rest of the Northland including for Duluth and Superior.

Simulated radar forecast valid from 7 PM this evening to 7 AM Friday.

Source: 18z NAM-WRF model 3.18.20; https://weathermodels.com/

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The same storm which will affect the Northland through Thursday evening is forecast to bring blizzard conditions to parts of the Western High Plains where blizzard warnings are in effect on Thursday (red area on map) Note: This storm doesn’t quite come together to bring us a major winter storm here in northeast Minnesota or northwest Wisconsin.

Source: https://www.pivotalweather.com/

Severe thunderstorms capable of producing tornadoes, damaging winds and large hail are possible over much of the Midwest on Thursday with enhanced (orange) and slight (yellow) risks for severe thunderstorms.

Note: A marginal risk (dark green) for severe thunderstorms extends as far north as far southern Minnesota on Thursday with hail and gusty winds being the main threats in that area.

Source: https://kamala.cod.edu/SPC/

Source: https://www.spc.noaa.gov/

A strong storm is lifting NE out of the Four Corners region of the US, as this energy works east it will lead to severe thunderstorm development over parts of Oklahoma and Texas tonight, then farther north/east on Thursday. Snow and some ice will occur on the backside of this storm in the colder air.

Source: Goes-16 water vapor imagery; https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/

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Low temperature forecast for Thursday morning, March 19th, 2020. Source: https://lab.weathermodels.com/

High temperature forecast for Thursday, March 19th, 2020

…Weather Summary…

Some wintry weather is on the way thanks to a few areas of low pressure which move E-NE out of the Rockies while a cold front moves east out of western and northern Minnesota. Forcing will increase as low pressure gets closer to the region, and this is when we should see some heavier bands of precipitation impact the Northland. One such band is forecast to affect far northern areas late this evening into Thursday morning, with another band setting up over parts of east-central Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin on Thursday. Precipitation types will range from snow to freezing rain/drizzle to rain with a gradual transition to all snow from NW-SE Thursday as colder air moves in.

Lows tonight will be in the middle 20s to middle 30s with highs Thursday in the 30s with some 40s possible in parts of northwest Wisconsin.

East winds tonight 10 to 15 mph with north or east winds Thursday at 10 to 20 mph.

Strong high pressure builds in on Friday which will give us sunshine but cold temperatures with highs only in the 20s.

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Forecast for Duluth and Superior

*Winter Weather Advisory 10 PM this evening to Noon Friday*

.Tonight… Light snow and drizzle at times with some freezing rain also possible. Patchy fog. Low 30 to 33. Wind east 10 to 20 mph.

.Thursday… Snow at times which could be mixed with drizzle or freezing rain. High 33 to 36. Wind east to northeast 10 to 15 mph becoming north late.

.Friday… Mostly sunny. High 23 to 28. Wind north to northwest 10 to 20 mph.

Normal temperatures for March 19

High 35
Low 19

Sunrise Thursday 7:13 AM CDT
Sunset Thursday 7:21 PM CDT

Thanks for reading!

Tim

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