Snow and rain showers tonight; milder with some sun Monday; few showers possible Tuesday PM

Today’s snow in parts of the Northland has had a convective appearance to it on satellite imagery as noted by the oatmeal or lumpy look to the clouds across northern Minnesota today per Goes-16 satellite imagery.

Source: https://weather.cod.edu/

Simulated radar forecast valid from 6 PM this evening to 7 AM Monday shows the steady snow in northeast Minnesota ending from SW-NE this evening, followed by a few spotty snow showers for the overnight hours.

Source: 18z 3km NAM/WRF model 3.22.20; https://weathermodels.com/

Near average to slightly warmer than average temperatures are forecast this week across northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin. Note: Normal highs on the 23rd are in the upper 30s, warming to around 40 degrees by the 28th. Normal lows range from the middle teens to lower 20s from March 23 to March 28.

Source: 12z European ensemble model 3.22.20; https://weathermodels.com/

Chances the Northland will be hit with a major storm the rest of this month are on the low side, but there are some opportunities for precipitation sprinkled in through the end of the month, but probably just minor precipitation/snowfall events, kinda like what we’ve already seen this month, so overall precipitation totals are forecast to be near average across the majority of the Northland through March 30th.

Source: 12z European ensemble model 3.22.20

Low temperature forecast for Monday morning, March 23, 2020. Source: https://lab.weathermodels.com/

High temperature forecast for Monday, March 23, 2020.

Temperature and Precipitation report for Duluth, Minnesota for the week of March 15, 2020.

Average temperature, departure from mean for the week of March 15, 2020. Source: https://mrcc.illinois.edu/

Total precipitation, departure from mean for the week of March 15, 2020.

…Weather Summary…

Some snow will continue tonight in parts of northeast Minnesota thanks to an upper level disturbance, trough and warm front which is moving east across the upper Midwest. Lift will be strongest this evening, and this is when we should see most of the heavier snow, but as mid level lapse rates steepen to around 7.0 to 7.5 c/km during the night, the potential does exist that a few heavy snow bursts will persist past Midnight. Note: Additional snowfall of a trace to 4 inches can be expected tonight, with the greatest amounts over the tip of the Arrowhead, including Tofte, Lutsen, Grand Marais and Hovland where a *Winter Weather Advisory* remains in effect until 4 AM Monday.

Mostly cloudy skies for tonight with lows in the 20s to lower 30s. Winds will be out of the south, west or northwest at 5 to 15 mph.

Monday looks like a nicer day with mainly dry weather along with some sunshine by the afternoon. Highs are forecast to be in the upper 30s to middle 40s with west winds 10 to 20 mph.

Chances for some rain showers increase Tuesday, especially in the afternoon-evening as a trough and cold front moves east out of the Northern Plains. Note: Computer models do show a little instability with this system, possibly enough to produce a thunderstorm or two late Tuesday afternoon in parts of western or central Minnesota, but overall just some rain showers, which could mix with some wet snow in far northern Minnesota depending on when these showers move across our area.

The next system I’m keeping an eye on is in the March 27-28 time frame. Still lots of uncertainty on the track of the low, but a few models bring it far enough north to possibly make things a little interesting in parts of the Northland with a swath of wet slushy snow late Friday-Saturday. Stay tuned.

Forecast for Duluth and Superior

.Tonight… Mostly cloudy. A few snow or rain showers possible. Low 28 to 33. Wind south 10 to 20 mph becoming west overnight.

.Monday… Partly to mostly sunny. High 40 to 45. Wind west 10 to 20 mph.

.Tuesday… Mostly cloudy. A few rain showers possible, mainly later in the day. High 35 to 40. Wind east to southeast 10 to 15 mph.

Thanks for reading!

Tim