Keeping an eye on snow, rain and freezing rain chances for mid to late week

Computer models continue to be in major disagreement on whether or not a winter storm will affect portions of the Northland late this week.

-European model continues to show less phasing and a storm track which is much farther south, this results in very little impact from snow, ice or rain in northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin with generally light or nuisance amounts of snow and rain in our area.

-NAM, UK and Canadian models along with a few runs of the GFS model show quite a bit more phasing, a stronger low, and a storm track which is farther north, this would bring greater impacts from snow, rain and ice to northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin with significant amounts of all three precipitation types in play.

-Timing would be from Wednesday through Friday morning, with the heaviest precipitation falling Thursday into Thursday night.

Stay tuned

The map below is Monday’s 12z Euro ensemble (EPS) model 3″ or greater snowfall probability forecast for March 19-20.

Highest chances of >3″ of snow from southern Minnesota to central Wisconsin into upper Michigan, and along the North Shore of Lake Superior per 12z EPS model.

Source: https://weathermodels.com/

Low temperature forecast for Tuesday morning, March 17th, 2020. Source: https://lab.weathermodels.com/

High temperature forecast for Tuesday, March 17th, 2020.

Snowfall Reports from around the Northland for March 16th, 2020

Source: https://www.weather.gov/dlh/

International Falls, MN: 3.6″
1 W Silver Bay, MN: 2.6″
1 ENE Ely, MN: 2.0″
3 S Iron Junction, MN: 1.9″
Two Harbors, MN: 1.5″
1 NW Cass Lake, MN: 0.6″
Duluth Airport: 0.4″

…Weather Summary…

Decreasing cloudiness tonight as high pressure begins to build into the Northland, this high will move ESE out of the Northern Plains and across the upper Midwest on Tuesday which will lead to dry weather under mostly sunny skies.

Lows tonight will be in the single digits and teens with a breezy west wind 10 to 20 mph with gusts to 30 mph.

Partly cloudy to mostly sunny skies on Tuesday with highs in the upper 20s to upper 30s. Winds will be out of the west at 10 to 20 mph with gusts to 30 mph.

Moisture increases on Wednesday as a southerly flow develops ahead of a low pressure system over the Rockies. Will likely see some light snow and rain spread from south to north across the Northland on Wednesday, and there is also a chance for some freezing drizzle/freezing rain, this light mix of precipitation could continue Wednesday night into Thursday with a round of heavier precipitation possibly impacting portions of the Northland from Thursday afternoon through early Friday morning.

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Forecast for Duluth and Superior

.Tonight… Breezy. Decreasing cloudiness. Low 13 to 18. Wind west 10 to 20 mph with gusts to 25 mph.

.Tuesday… Breezy. Mostly sunny. High 30 to 35. Wind west 15 to 25 mph.

.Wednesday… Light snow or a mix of rain and snow. Some snow accumulation possible. High 30 to 34. Wind east 10 to 15 mph.

Normal temperatures for March 17

High 35
Low 18

Sunrise Tuesday 7:17 AM CDT
Sunset Tuesday 7:18 PM CDT

Thanks for reading!

Tim

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