Minor snow event on the way late tonight-Monday morning; keeping an eye on a system for mid to late week

*Greatest snow amounts of 1 to 3 inches continue to look most likely across northern Minnesota into the tip of the Arrowhead (north of Duluth)

*Snowfall amounts generally around an inch or less farther south, including for Duluth and Superior. Note: Looks like the snow will hold off in the Twin Ports until after Midnight tonight, starting ~1 to 3 AM, snow diminishes by late Monday morning.

System which will affect the Northland later tonight and Monday can be seen moving east across North Dakota today per Goes-16 water vapor imagery.

Source: https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/

Simulated radar forecast from the NAM-WRF model (18z run) valid from 7 PM this evening to 7 PM Monday.

Most of the snow with this system falls late this evening through about mid-morning on Monday so be prepared for possible snow/slush covered roads in parts of the Northland Monday morning.

Source: https://weathermodels.com/

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This week will be a little cooler than average in northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin. Its unlikely will see any 40s or 50s in our area this week.

Note: Normal highs are in the middle 30s from March 16th to 21st while normal lows are in the middle to upper 10s.

Source: 12z European ensemble model; https://weathermodels.com/

There’s not a whole lot of model agreement right now when it comes to a potential storm for late this week.

Euro model remains consistent showing less phasing while keeping this system well south of the Northland (little to no impacts) while the GFS model shows quite a bit more phasing, a storm track much farther north which leads to far greater impacts for our area including snow (possibly heavy) rain, and gusty winds. Time frame would be from late Wednesday night through Friday, March 18-20. Stay tuned.

Source: 12z European ensemble model 3.15.20

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There hasn’t been a whole lot of snow across the Northland from late January through mid-March, check out how much snow has fallen from January 25 to March 14.

International Falls: 10.6″

Duluth: 7.9″

Brainerd, MN: 1.4″

Source: https://mrcc.illinois.edu/

Brainerd has seen only 10% of its normal snowfall since January 25th while Duluth has seen about 25% of its normal snowfall, same goes for cities such as Two Harbors, Silver Bay, Hibbing, Grand Rapids and Bigfork.

All of northwest Wisconsin also running well below normal in snowfall, only around 25% of normal since late January.

Far northern Minnesota and the tip of the Arrowhead including the cities of International Falls, Ely and Grand Marais has fared a little better with the amount of snow since late Janaury, running about 50-75% of normal.

Precipitation totals across the Northland since February 1, 2020

International Falls 0.66″ (-0.26″ below normal)

Duluth 0.61″ (-0.82″ below normal)

Brainerd 0.19″ (1.07″ below normal)

Walker 0.10″ (-1.03″ below normal)

So yes it’s been a dry pattern for about the last month or so, and if this continues into spring 2020, then we may be dealing with increasing chances that drought conditions develop, at least over portions of Minnesota, especially western and central sections of the state. Will see what happens with all this over the next few weeks.

This map shows the kind of pattern we’ve been in since early February – An active and wet storm track across portions of the Midwest and Ohio Valley, while across the upper Midwest it’s been dry, thanks to the jet stream pattern which has been locked in a split flow as of late.

Low temperature forecast for Monday morning, March 16th, 2020. Source: https://lab.weathermodels.com/

High temperature forecast for Monday, March 16th, 2020.

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Temperature and Precipitation report for Duluth, Minnesota for March 8 to March 14, 2020

High Temperatures/Departure from Normal

3.8: 51F/+20 degrees above normal
3.9: 35F/+3 degrees above normal
3.10: 37F/+5 degrees above normal
3.11: 39F/+7 degrees above normal
3.12: 37F/+4 degrees above normal
3.13: 29F/-4 degrees below normal
3.14: 28F/-5 degrees below normal

Low Temperatures/Departure from Normal

3.8: 33F/+19 degrees above normal
3.9: 23F/+8 degrees above normal
3.10: 17F/+2 degrees above normal
3.11: 21F/+5 degrees above normal
3.12: 28F/+12 degrees above normal
3.13: 17F/+1 degree above normal
3.14: 13F/-4 degrees below normal

Note: Average temperature in Duluth during the week of March 8, 2020: 29.1 degrees; +5.2 degrees above average. Source: https://www.dnr.state.mn.us/

Total precipitation: 0.20″
Normal: 0.32″
Departure: -0.12″ below average

State Average for Minnesota for the week of March 8, 2020

Temperature 32.5 degrees
Departure +6.1 degrees above average

Precipitation 0.19″
Departure: -0.10″ below average

Average temperature, departure from mean for the week of March 8th, 2020. Source: https://mrcc.illinois.edu/

Total precipitation, departure from mean for the week of March 8th, 2020.

…Weather Summary…

Clouds will continue to increase in the Northland this evening with some snow gradually developing from W-E during the night. Note: There is quite a bit of dry air over the area this afternoon with a good 10 degree difference between the temperature and dew point so it will take a while before the air saturates enough to allow snow flakes to reach the surface.

Lingering snow showers for Monday, and enough warm air could work into at least southern portions of the area for rain or snow showers by Monday afternoon.

Snow accumulations should be greatest late tonight into Monday morning with little additional accumulation expected by Monday afternoon.

Lows tonight will range from the middle 10s to upper 20s with highs Monday in the 30s to around 40 degrees.

East to southeast winds 10 to 20 mph tonight becoming west to southwest on Monday with gusts to around 20 to 25 mph.

Tuesday looks dry with some sunshine. Highs are forecast to range from the upper 20s to middle 30s.

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Forecast for Duluth and Superior

.Tonight… Mostly cloudy. Some snow developing after Midnight. Low 20 to 25. Wind east to southeast 10 to 20 mph.

.Monday… Some snow early with total accumulations of around an inch. A few rain or snow showers in the afternoon. Mostly cloudy. High 35 to 40. Wind southwest 10 to 20 mph.

.Tuesday… Mostly sunny. High 30 to 35. Wind west 10 to 20 mph.

Normal temperatures for March 16

High 34
Low 18

Sunrise Monday 7:18 AM CDT
Sunset Monday 7:17 PM CDT

Thanks for reading!

Tim

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