Gusty winds on the way for Wednesday with isolated showers early; few snow showers Wednesday night-Thursday; watching a possible snow event late this weekend/early next week

Isolated showers/sprinkles are possible in parts of the Northland tonight into early Wednesday morning followed by mainly dry conditions for most of Wednesday, then will see widely scattered snow and rain showers spread SE across the Northland late Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night.

Simulated radar forecast valid from 1 AM Wednesday to 1 AM Thursday.

Source: 18z NAM-WRF model 4.7.2020; https://weathermodels.com/

The microclimate near Lake Superior makes things interesting, especially in spring! Temperatures at 4 PM Tuesday ranged from 61 degrees on top of the hill at the Duluth Airport, while it was 37 degrees at the Duluth Harbor. Fog was reported at the Sky Harbor Airport and webcam imagery also showed foggy conditions at Wisconsin Point late this afternoon.

Gusty northwest winds were occurring at the Duluth Airport this afternoon, but the marine layer (NE wind) is hanging tough this afternoon closer to Lake Superior.

Look at these temperatures from Tuesday afternoon.

80 degree temps as far north as Chicago, 70s in southern Minnesota, lower 60s in Duluth (Airport) widespread mid to upper 80s across the Central Plains this afternoon.

Source: RTMA model; https://lab.weathermodels.com/

Low temperature forecast for Wednesday morning, April 8, 2020. Source: https://lab.weathermodels.com/

High temperature forecast for Wednesday, April 8, 2020.

Look at this supercell thunderstorm which developed late this afternoon north of Milwaukee, Wisconsin. This storm dropped big hail ranging from Golf Ball to Tennis Balls around 4 PM today. Cloud tops ranged from 45,000-50,000 feet per radar imagery.

Goes-16 Day Cloud Phase imagery shows the explosion of thunderstorms this afternoon over southeast Wisconsin and central Lake Michigan.

Source: https://weather.cod.edu/

There’s a lot for the models to sort out in coming days, but there is at least a small chance that a winter storm could impact portions of the upper Midwest and Great Lakes late this weekend into early next week, certainly is something to keep an eye on the next few days.

Looking at 3 things (circled areas on map) that the models have to resolve the next few days, won’t be easy.

Source: 12z European ensemble model 4.7.2020; https://weathermodels.com/

Here’s a look at the 500mb height anomaly forecast from Sunday, April 12 to Tuesday, April 14. How much phasing and where the phasing takes place between the system coming out of Canada and the energy coming out of the southwest US will determine just how strong of a storm this will be, and where it will track. Stay tuned.

Source: 12z European ensemble model 4.7.2020

One thing the computer models continue to agree on is unleashing a dump of cold air for next week. Potential for daytime highs in the 20s and lower 30s in the Northland next week with overnight lows in the teens, possibly even a little colder. If this was January this would be considered a ‘heat wave’ but for April this is chilly as our normal highs are in the lower 50s, normal lows around 30 or in the lower 30s.

Source: 12z European ensemble model 4.7.2020

…Weather Summary…

Fast flow aloft will remain over the Northern US the next few days while a mid and upper level low digs SE reaching Lake Superior by Thursday morning. As this upper low digs south it will spread a colder air mass into our area with 500mb temperatures dropping to around -35C by Thursday. The combination of colder temps aloft and warmer temps near the surface will cause widely scattered showers in the Northland Wednesday and Thursday, peaking in coverage during the afternoon-evening hours. Mostly rain showers on Wednesday, then as colder air moves in will see precipitation switch over to snow showers and flurries Wednesday night and Thursday, but very little snow accumulation is forecast, maybe a light coating in spots.

Lows tonight will range from around 30 to the lower 40s with northwest or southwest winds 5 to 15 mph.

Highs on Wednesday will be in the 40s to lower 50s with a breezy northwest wind 15 to 30 mph. Note: We should see some sun on Wednesday, but also some clouds and a few passing showers later in the day.

Cooler temperatures for Thursday with highs mainly in the 30s.

Forecast for Duluth and Superior

.Tonight… Partly to mostly cloudy. Isolated showers possible. Low 34 to 39. Wind northwest 10 to 20 mph becoming southwest 5 to 15 mph. East wind closer to Lake Superior gradually becoming west.

.Wednesday… Windy. Partly to mostly cloudy. Isolated showers possible early and again late in the day. High 45 to 50. Wind northwest 15 to 30 mph.

.Thursday… Partly to mostly cloudy. Cooler. A few snow showers and flurries possible. High 35 to 40. Wind northwest 10 to 20 mph.

Thanks for reading!

Tim