Bone Dry! Cool and breezy with elevated fire weather conditions into the weekend

-Temperatures are running about 10 to 15 degrees cooler across the Northland this afternoon compared to Wednesday afternoon, and Friday will even be a little cooler with highs only in the upper 30s to middle 40s, well below normal for May 8th.

-Record or near record cold is possible over the Northland Friday morning – See record lows list below.

…Record Lows for May 8th…

Ashland, WI: 20 F set in 1983 and 1948

Hibbing, MN: 21 F set in 1983

International Falls, MN: 21 F set in 2008

Duluth, MN: 22 F set in 1966

-A dry weather pattern looks to continue across the Northland tonight and Friday, although a few flurries/snow showers are possible in the tip of the Minnesota Arrowhead (Ely to Silver Bay and NE from there) and also along the South Shore of Lake Superior, mainly impacting areas from Ashland and Butternut, east to Hurley and Gile.

-Fire weather concerns will continue to be an issue through the weekend with near-critical fire weather conditions expected again Friday afternoon due to dry fuels, low relative humidity, and gusty winds. Any fires that start could spread very rapidly. Avoid burning the next few days.

-2020 Fishing Opener in northeastern Minnesota is still looking dry and cool on Saturday with northwesterly winds 5 to 15 mph with gusts up to 20 mph. Early morning temps in the 20s, afternoon temps in the 40s to lower 50s.

Fire weather concerns will be an issue until we get some rain and higher dew points/moisture into our area, none of this looks likely anytime soon.

Check out these dew points from Thursday afternoon, bone dry! Dew points only in the teens, with even a few single digits showing up late this afternoon.

An unusually strong upper level low (May version of a Polar Vortex) is dropping S/SE into Ontario Province today with very low heights down to ~522 meters, incredible for this time of the year.

Here’s a look at the upper level low on water vapor imagery today as it dives south into Ontario.

Source: https://weather.cod.edu/

Just as impressive as the 500mb heights, are the 850mb temperatures which are down to -18C this afternoon across portions of Ontario, while the 0C 850mb temperature contour extends south to near the Twin Cities, and west to Bismarck this afternoon. Note: 850mb level is ~5000 feet in the atmosphere.

Temperatures this afternoon range from the 20s over parts of Ontario to around 100 degrees over parts of the southwest US.

Freeze headlines in effect across much of the Midwest and Ohio Valley tonight and or Friday night.

Source: https://www.pivotalweather.com/

I’m continuing to see signs in the long range that the pattern may start to shift toward a milder one for the Northland, but this probably won’t happen until later this month (next weekend or beyond, ~May 16)

Source: https://weathermodels.com/

Forecast for Duluth and Superior

.Tonight… Clear to partly cloudy. Low 24 to 29. Wind north 10 to 20 mph.

.Friday… Breezy. Mostly sunny. High 41 to 46. Wind north to northwest 15 to 25 mph.

.Saturday… Partly to mostly cloudy. High 46 to 51. Wind west to northwest 10 to 15 mph.

Thanks for reading!

Tim