Shower/t-storm chances Saturday night into the middle of next week

Showers and thunderstorms are possible across the Northland beginning Saturday night, and these storm chances will continue into the middle of next week, so some much needed rain could be on the way. Note: Precipitation deficits across the Northland since January 1st range from 2 to 4 inches below normal!

On Sunday, there is a slight risk for severe thunderstorms covering northwest portions of the Northland including the International Falls, Bigfork and Walker areas (yellow shaded area on map) Large hail and damaging winds are the main severe weather threats in that area on Sunday.

There is a marginal risk for severe thunderstorms across the rest of northeast and east-central Minnesota and most of northwest Wisconsin for Sunday (dark green area on map)

Note: A higher chance for severe weather, an enhanced risk covers much of central/eastern North Dakota, northern South Dakota, and far northwest Minnesota on Sunday (orange shaded area on map) this area will have a chance for a few tornadoes along with damaging winds and large hail on Sunday.

Source: https://www.pivotalweather.com; SPC

Saturday’s forecast for northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin

*Another nice day on the way for Saturday under partly to mostly sunny skies. Highs will be in the 70s but it will be cooler near Lake Superior as winds shift around to an easterly direction at 10 to 15 mph.

*Scattered showers along with a few thunderstorms are possible across the Northland Saturday night into early Sunday afternoon. Thunderstorms during this time should remain below severe criteria, but heavy rain and occasional lightning will be possible with some of the storms late Saturday night through Sunday morning.

*Sunday afternoon looks like it will trend drier across the Northland. But we could see areas of fog develop near Lake Superior as there is potential for a strong temperature gradient to setup Sunday afternoon with near 80 degree temps around the Brainerd lakes to around 50 degrees near Lake Superior.

*Another round of showers and thunderstorms is possible Sunday night, mainly across western-northern portions of the area, or roughly NW of a line from about Brainerd to Ely. Looks dry Sunday night SE of that aforementioned line. Areas of fog could linger near Lake Superior Sunday night.

*There are additional chances for showers and thunderstorms next Monday and Tuesday, and possibly on Wednesday too depending on how quickly a trough moves through, and also on the track of the remnants of Cristobal.

Here’s the simulated radar forecast valid from 1 PM Saturday to 7 PM Sunday.

Source: 18z NAM 3km model 6.5.2020; https://weathermodels.com

Thanks for reading!

Tim

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