Turning warm with a tropical feel by Monday, but much cooler near Lake Superior; rounds of rain/thunder the next few days

We’ve got quite an interesting weather pattern setting up the next few days.

1: An upper level trough across the western U.S. will be moving to the ENE reaching the Northern Plains and upper Midwest.

2: Tropical Storm Cristobal heading north over the western Gulf of Mexico and likely to make landfall Sunday evening across southern Louisiana.

3: As the western trough heads east it will meet up with the remnants of Cristobal in the Tuesday-Wednesday time frame.

Here’s the 500mb forecast valid from 7 AM Monday, June 8 to 7 AM Thursday, June 11, 2020. Watch how the trough approaching from the west absorbs Cristobal as it lifts N-NE into the Great Lakes around midweek, pretty cool!

Source: 12z European ensemble model 6.6.2020; https://weathermodels.com

The first of what should be a few rounds of showers and thunderstorms through Sunday afternoon is forecast to move into the Northland later this evening.

There is already a pool of strong elevated instability sitting over the Dakotas this afternoon, and as a SSW low level jet cranks up tonight it will help pull some of this elevated CAPE northeast into the Northland.

The combination of warm and moist advection, some elevated CAPE and steeper lapse rates moving into the Northland later tonight through Sunday morning should lead to some thunderstorms with downpours and lightning being the primary hazards, but some hail can’t be ruled out if a stronger storm is able to develop Sunday morning.

Simulated radar forecast valid from 7 PM Saturday to 7 AM Monday.

Notice the multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms which will impact the Northland late tonight into Sunday morning with additional showers and thunderstorms possible Sunday night, mainly over the NW portion of the Northland, or roughly along and NW of a line from around Walker to Ely.

Source: 18z NAM 3km model 6.6.2020; https://weathermodels.com

Still looking at the potential for >2″ of rain in much of the Northland by Wednesday. I don’t think flooding will become a widespread issue though considering how dry its been lately, but localized flash flooding could develop in spots if thunderstorms move over the same location repeatedly.

We’re already seeing a rather strong temperature gradient this afternoon, and this should become even tighter Sunday afternoon as hot air spreads farther NE into western/southern Minnesota with highs on Sunday in the 90s! But near Lake Superior, highs on Sunday will only be in the mid 40s to mid 50s with a breezy NE wind!

The warm temps should make it into the Northland on Monday with widespread 80s and lower 90s, but it looks like will keep an easterly wind near Lake Superior so it should be much cooler again on Monday (50s for highs)

Dew points will be on the rise over the next few days with dew points climbing into the 50s and 60s on Sunday, and into the 60s and lower 70s on Monday – A tropical feel (away from Lake Superior)

*Breaking down the timing of when we could get some rain in Duluth and Superior*

-Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms late tonight into Sunday morning with downpours and occasional lightning possible, but after that it looks like we may stay dry in Duluth from Sunday afternoon through Monday evening before rain chances increase again sometime in the Monday overnight to Tuesday time frame. Some rain could linger into Wednesday.

-With the cool and eventually more humid air mass developing near Lake Superior will probably be dealing with some fog on Sunday and Monday.

Thanks for reading!

Tim

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