Areas of fog along with a cool breeze near Lake Superior; very warm and muggy inland (near record warmth Monday?) risk for showers/t-storms mainly over northern Minnesota through Monday night

We’ve got quite an interesting weather pattern right now, but at the same time it’s a frustrating one, especially for areas that need rain, like Duluth (-4.02″ below normal precipitation since January 1st)

I’ll try to break down what’s going on now and what may happen over the next few days.

1: A strong upper level trough across the western U.S., this trough will be moving ENE through Wednesday. Rounds of showers and thunderstorms with heavy rain and possible severe weather will occur tonight NW of an upper level ridge (pink outlined area on map)

2: More showers and thunderstorms will occur Monday and Monday night from southwest to north-central Minnesota, but probably staying W-NW of Duluth.

3: Tropical Storm Cristobal moving across Louisiana through Monday afternoon. After that it looks like the remnants of Cristobal will track N-NE, possibly passing over eastern Wisconsin and eastern Lake Superior on Wednesday! There will be a heavy rain threat associated with Cristobal, but most of this may end up staying east of the Northland.

4: So where does this leave us for rain prospects in Duluth this week? I’d say the chances for a much needed soaking rain in Duluth are diminishing. The threat for heaviest rain appears greatest NW and E of Duluth through midweek, but this doesn’t mean we won’t get any rain in Duluth this week, but the chances for a heavy soaking rain look less likely than they did a few days ago. Our best chance for some more rain in Duluth looks to come in the Tuesday and or Wednesday time frame.

Notice how the thunderstorms over the Dakotas and far northwest Minnesota are moving more SW to NE while not really pushing to the east this evening as the ridge is holding tight as storms ride W-NW of said ridge.

Source: Goes-16 sandwich imagery 6.7.2020; https://weather.cod.edu

Simulated radar forecast valid through 7 AM Tuesday, June 9th, 2020.

Source: 18z NAM 3km model 6.7.2020; https://weathermodels.com

A few severe thunderstorms are possible tonight over north-central Minnesota where there is a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms (yellow area on map) Main threats are from hail and gusty winds.

A few severe thunderstorms remain possible for Monday and Monday night, again mainly over north-central Minnesota where there is a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms. Main threats are from hail and gusty winds.

It’s been a windy day across the Northland – Here are some wind reports from Sunday, June 7, 2020.

Source: https://www.weather.gov/dlh/

Blatnik Bridge: 58 mph

Duluth Sky Harbor Airport: 49 mph

1 N Port Wing, WI: 46 mph

Duluth Airport: 40 mph

Chisholm-Hibbing Airport: 40 mph

International Falls, MN: 37 mph

Superior Airport: 33 mph

Cloquet, MN: 31 mph

Hayward, WI: 31 mph

Two Harbors, MN: 31 mph

Brainerd, MN: 30 mph

Grand Rapids, MN: 30 mph

Here’s a look at 12 hour radar rainfall estimates ending at 1 PM Sunday, June 7, 2020.

Note: The dashed outlined area on map represents where additional showers and thunderstorms are possible tonight into Monday morning.

Rainfall Reports from around the Northland for Sunday, June 7, 2020

Source: https://www.weather.gov/dlh/; https://mesowest.utah.edu

Note: Totals listed below through 4 PM Sunday.

Makinen, MN: 3.50″

2 W Iron Junction, MN: 2.20″

Buyck, MN: 2.10″

2 S Brimson, MN: 1.85″

Chisholm-Hibbing Airport: 1.58″

Hayward, WI: 1.40″

Kabetogama, MN: 1.23″

Littlefork, MN: 1.20″

Grand Rapids, MN: 1.11″

2 SE Cohasset, MN: 1.05″

International Falls, MN: 0.89″

Grand Marais, MN: 0.81″

Orr, MN: 0.79″

Ely, MN: 0.69″

Cass Lake, MN: 0.52″

Minong, WI: 0.50″

Hinckley, MN: 0.44″

Solon Springs, WI: 0.43″

Little Marais, MN: 0.39″

Walker, MN: 0.38″

Siren, WI: 0.36″

Glidden, WI: 0.31″

5 S Herbster, WI: 0.30″

Hill City, MN: 0.29″

Pine River, MN: 0.24″

McGregor, MN: 0.22″

Clam Lake, WI: 0.22″

Ashland, WI: 0.21″

Superior Airport: 0.18″

Duluth Airport: 0.17″

Brainerd, MN: 0.11″

…Tornado Watch until 10 PM tonight for northwest Minnesota and eastern North Dakota…

…Severe Thunderstorm Watch until 10 PM Tonight for parts of central South Dakota…

Also take a look at the temperature contrast in Minnesota this afternoon, incredible difference in temps, but not all that unusual as we’ve seen this type of temperature contrast before, but it is still cool to see whenever it happens.

Temperatures in the mid 40s to mid 50s near Lake Superior this afternoon to around 100 degrees in parts of southwest Minnesota!

Much of the Northland will have temperatures in the 80s on Monday with some spots reaching the lower 90s! It will also be humid on Monday with dew points in the 60s. Note: Much cooler temps will continue near Lake Superior with highs on Monday ranging from the lower 50s to middle 60s.

…Record or near Record Warmth is possible across the Northland on Monday…

Here are the record high temperatures for June 8th, and the year/s they were set.

Brainerd, MN: 92 F (1900)

Ashland, WI: 91 F (1914)

International Falls, MN: 91 F (1970)

Hibbing, MN: 89 F (1970)

Duluth, MN: 88 F (2000, 1972, 1959 and 1894)

Thanks for reading!

Tim

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