Remnants of Tropical Depression Cristobal to bring rain to the Northland late Tuesday-Wednesday, and possibly some snow to parts of Ontario Wednesday-Thursday

Tropical Depression Cristobal was located about 110 miles north of Monroe, Louisiana as of 4 PM Monday with movement to the north at 18 mph. Cristobal has a minimum central pressure of 994mb/29.36″ with maximum sustained winds of 35 mph.

Cristobal will turn into a Post-Tropical/Extratropical system by Wednesday morning as it lifts rapidly N-NE across central Wisconsin to central Lake Superior.

Source: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov

High wind watches in effect Tuesday-Wednesday for parts of the Central Plains with Flash Flood Watches east of there stretching from southeast Minnesota and west-central Wisconsin, south to the Gulf Coast.

Source: https://home.pivotalweather.com/

Goes-16 water vapor loop from Monday, June 8, 2020.

Cristobal lifting north out of Louisiana while a trough heads east out of the Rockies.

Source: https://weather.cod.edu

Significant River Flooding is possible late this week in the yellow shaded area on map below.

Source: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov

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A few strong to severe thunderstorms are possible tonight across portions of north-central Minnesota, mainly along and NW of a line from Brainerd to Ely where a Slight Risk (yellow) and Marginal Risk (dark green) are in place for tonight. Large hail and gusty winds are the main severe weather threats tonight.

Severe Thunderstorm Watch covers parts of northwest and west-central Minnesota, as well as parts of eastern North Dakota until 11 PM tonight (yellow area on map)

Goes-16 sandwich imagery shows the explosion of supercell thunderstorms late this afternoon in far northwest Minnesota and far northeast North Dakota with movement to the NE into Canada.

Source: https://weather.cod.edu

Simulated radar forecast valid from 7 PM this evening to 7 PM Wednesday.

The greatest chance for showers and thunderstorms tonight will be across north-central and northeast Minnesota (NW of Duluth) or from about Brainerd to Ely and northwest from there.

Rain and possibly a few thunderstorms spreads north into east-central and northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin late Tuesday afternoon/early Tuesday evening with rain continuing in these areas Tuesday night before tapering off from SW-NE on Wednesday, this moisture is associated with the remnants of Tropical Depression Cristobal, as well as an approaching cold front/trough moving out of western Minnesota.

Source: 18z NAM 3km model 6.8.2020; https://weathermodels.com

There’s no shortage of moisture in the atmosphere on Tuesday with PWATS or precipitable water values ranging from around 1.75 to 2.45″ across far eastern and northeast Minnesota into all of northwest Wisconsin, this will increase the chance for some heavy rainfall especially from late Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night.

Source: 12z European weather model 6.8.2020; https://weathermodels.com

A nearly 40 degree temperature difference between Cloquet and Duluth Sky Harbor Airport at 3 PM today. 90 degrees at Cloquet and 52 degrees at Duluth Sky Harbor. Distance between the two locations is roughly 25 miles!

Record High Temperatures for June 8th broken today at Brainerd and Ashland.

Brainerd, Minnesota: New record high for June 8 of 96 F; old record 92 F set in 1900.

Ashland, Wisconsin: New record high for June 8 of 93 F; old record 91 F set in 1914.

Note: Tuesday looks like another warm and humid day away from Lake Superior with highs in the upper 70s to upper 80s with dew points in the 60s. It will remain much cooler near Lake Superior with highs in the lower 50s to lower 60s. Patchy fog is also possible near Lake Superior tonight.

24 Hour Rainfall Reports ending 3 PM Monday, June 8, 2020

Source: https://mesowest.utah.edu

Bigfork, MN: 0.77″

Cass Lake, MN: 0.70″

Littlefork, MN: 0.51″

Walker, MN: 0.49″

Orr, MN: 0.41″

International Falls, MN: 0.40″

Kabetogama, MN: 0.29″

Pine River, MN: 0.17″

Chisholm-Hibbing Airport: 0.13″

Grand Rapids, MN: 0.09″

Here’s a look at how much rain has fallen since Saturday, June 6. The greatest amounts were across northern Minnesota with widespread 1-2″+ totals.

Source: https://lab.weathermodels.com

Here we are going on mid-June and I’m still talking about snow!

This snow won’t affect the Northland, so you can relax now, but the snow won’t be too far away come Wednesday and Thursday as places just north of the border could see some snow or a rain/snow mix Wednesday into Thursday including locations such as Ear Falls, Dryden, Sioux Lookout and Upsala in western Ontario province.

Source: 18z NAM model 6.8.2020; https://weather.cod.edu

2020! Not sure what will happen next?

Source: 12z European computer model 6.8.2020; https://weathermodels.com

Thanks for reading!

Tim

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