Very Warm and Muggy weather continues; Areas of fog near Lake Superior tonight and Wednesday

*June 2020 will go into the record books as the 3rd Driest June on record at Duluth, Minnesota with just 0.69″ of rain for the entire month! The driest June on record in Duluth was in 1910 with 0.11″ of rain. Note: It also looks like June 2020 will finish in the top 5 warmest Junes on record in Duluth, either at number 3 or number 4 warmest on record!

*It’s been 139 years since the last time Duluth, Minnesota hit 90 degrees on the 4th of July, this happened on July 4th, 1881 with a high temperature of 95 degrees! There is a chance we could hit 90 degrees in Duluth on the 4th of July this year.

*The last time Duluth, Minnesota had a 90 degree or warmer temperature was in 2018 on August 11th. Looks like we have a shot at hitting 90 degrees in Duluth later this week.

*The warmest 4th of July since 2000 at Duluth, Minnesota was in 2013 with a high temperature of 86 degrees.

Quite an amplified weather pattern for late June with a strong ridge from Ontario province, south to the Midwest while mid/upper level lows and troughs covered the northeast U.S. and Northern Rockies today.

Source: RAP model; https://www.spc.noaa.gov/

Here’s how the mid and upper level pattern looks on water vapor imagery today.

Source: https://weather.cod.edu/

500mb forecast valid thru 1 AM Saturday, July 4, 2020.

Not a whole lot of change to the weather pattern through late this week with the strongest winds aloft stretching from the Northern Rockies into Canada while ridging and weaker winds aloft dominate the Plains and Great Lakes, all in all a classic/warm summer pattern.

Highs in the Northland for Thursday, Friday and Saturday should be in the 80s to lower 90s with overnight lows in the 60s as we remain under an upper level ridge late this week.

Source: 18z NAM model 6.30.2020; https://weather.cod.edu/

Cold front which is over the Dakotas this afternoon will wash out as it moves farther east into Minnesota on Wednesday while it bumps into an upper level ridge which causes most of the forcing with this system to lift north into Canada. What this all means for the Northland is widely scattered shower and thunderstorm potential on Wednesday, mainly during the afternoon and evening, but widespread all day rains are unlikely, in fact many of us probably won’t get much rain at all with this weakening cold front on Wednesday.

Highs in northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin on Wednesday will mainly be in the 80s to around 90 degrees with cooler temperatures near Lake Superior. It’ll be another muggy day as well with dew points on Wednesday in the 60s to lower 70s.

Showers and thunderstorms erupting over North Dakota late this afternoon will build SE into eastern South Dakota and western Minnesota tonight, but as these storms move farther east they are expected to weaken as they reach far western portions of the Northland (along and west of a International Falls to Brainerd line) late tonight-Wednesday morning.

Then we could see a few showers and thunderstorms redevelop Wednesday afternoon or evening over parts of the Northland as what’s left of tonight’s system over the Dakotas heads east into our area. The air mass looks plenty unstable on Wednesday with lots of instability and warm/humid air in place, but winds aloft look fairly weak (stronger winds to our NW) while mid level lapse rates look pretty poor, so although a few storms may develop on Wednesday, the chances for severe weather appear to be on the low side at this time.

Source: 18z NAM 3km model 6.30.2020; https://weathermodels.com/

There is a Marginal Risk for isolated severe thunderstorms on Wednesday across north-central Minnesota (dark green area on map) main threat is from gusty winds.

Isolated thunderstorms are possible in the light green shaded area on map, but severe weather is not expected for these areas.

Source: https://www.pivotalweather.com/

24 Hour Rainfall Reports from June 29-30, 2020 ending at 4 PM on the 30th.

Source: https://mesowest.utah.edu/

Brainerd, MN: 1.39″

McGregor, MN: 0.86″

Grand Marais, MN: 0.80″

Bigfork, MN: 0.52″

Moose Lake, MN: 0.42″

Littlefork, MN: 0.34″

Hayward, WI: 0.29″

Hinckley, MN: 0.24″

Minong, WI: 0.18″

Solon Springs, WI: 0.18″

Washburn, WI: 0.17″

Ashland, WI: 0.13″

Superior Airport: 0.13″

Clam Lake, WI: 0.11″

Isabella, MN: 0.10″

Duluth Airport: 0.04″

Cloquet, MN: 0.04″

Thanks for reading!

Tim