Muggy with a few rounds of showers and thunderstorms on Wednesday, strong to severe thunderstorms and heavy rainfall possible

A Slight Risk for Severe Thunderstorms covers all of northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin for Wednesday.

Hazards include

-Damaging Winds to 70 mph

-Large Hail of Quarter to Golf Ball size

-Heavy Rain which may lead to localized flash flooding

-Dangerous Lightning

-An isolated tornado possible Wednesday afternoon into early Wednesday evening

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Here’s the system which will be impacting the Northland on Wednesday, its producing severe weather this evening over parts of Montana which will spread east into the Dakotas through the overnight.

Source: Goes-16 Sandwich Satellite Imagery 7.7.2020; https://weather.cod.edu/forecast/

Here’s a look at 2 computer model forecasts for Wednesday, July 8th, 2020

18z NAM 3km model valid from 1 AM Wednesday to 1 AM Thursday.

Source: https://weathermodels.com/

As you can see, both models generate a few rounds of thunderstorms which track through the Northland on Wednesday, the area/s that see multiple rounds of storms Wednesday is a little uncertain at the moment, but the main message from model guidance is that there should be a few rounds of thunderstorms which impact portions if not all of the Northland from Wednesday morning through Wednesday evening.

Note: Heavy rainfall will occur with these storms on Wednesday due to the abundance of moisture which will be in place across the area. Locations that happen to get a few rounds of storms could easily pick up 2 to 3 inches of rain, and localized flash flooding could result.

18z HRRR model valid from 1 AM Wednesday to 1 AM Thursday.

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Heat Advisory covers much of southern Minnesota, western Wisconsin, eastern Iowa and northwest Illinois Wednesday afternoon with heat index values ranging from 95 to around 102 degrees.

Source: https://www.pivotalweather.com/

Water temperatures at the head of Lake Superior continue to warm nicely with widespread mid to upper 60s water temps as of July 7th, 2020.

Source: http://www.coastwatch.msu.edu/

Note: Over the last 2 days, the Duluth Airport has picked up 1.35″ of rain, this is more rain than what we saw the entire month of June 0.69″. In fact, the rainfall total of 1.35″ over the last 2 days is almost as much rain as what we had in Duluth for all of May and June 1.63″. We’re starting to erase the precipitation deficit in Duluth which currently sits at -6.61″ below normal since January 1st, the key is that we stay in this wetter pattern for a few more weeks, or we get an event that dumps 2-4″ of rain on the city, not sure if either one of those scenarios will happen, but will just have to wait and see.

July 2020 is off to a very warm start in Duluth with an average temperature thru the 6th of 75.6 degrees (+10.9 degrees above normal)

Here are the top 10 warmest Julys on record for Duluth, Minnesota

1) 71.9 degrees set in 2006, tied in 2012

2) 71.7 degrees set in 1881

3) 71.1 degrees set in 2019

4) 70.9 degrees set in 1921

5) 70.6 degrees set in 1936

6) 70.3 degrees set in 1878

7) 69.9 degrees set in 1988

8) 69.8 degrees set in 2011

9) 69.6 degrees set in 1892

10) 69.5 degrees set in 1983

We still have a ways to go, but I think there is a pretty good chance that July 2020 will finish somewhere in the top 10 warmest Julys on record in Duluth, Minnesota, and if this happens, it comes off a 3rd warmest June on record in Duluth.

Thanks for reading!

Tim

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