A few showers and t-storms in northern Minnesota this evening and again on Thursday

A few showers and thunderstorms will continue to move east across northern Minnesota into this evening before diminishing later tonight. Looks like will remain dry in Duluth through the night as the spotty storms this evening stay north of the city.

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12 days at or above 80 degrees so far this month in Duluth, Minnesota. The normal for July is 11 days at or above 80 degrees. We’ve already had more 80 degree days this July thru the 1st half of the month compared to what we typically get for the entire month of July.

Here is the top 5 list for most number of 80 degree days on record in Duluth for the month of July.

1) 25 days set in 2012

2) 24 days set in 1988

3) 23 days set in 2006, tied in 2019

4) 20 days set in 1881, tied in 1921, 1943 and 2018

5) 19 days set in 1916, tied in 1989 and 2011

Note: I think there is a good chance that July 2020 will finish somewhere in the top 5 for most number of 80 degrees days in Duluth.

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A strong upper level low currently over Manitoba province will move east reaching Hudson Bay Canada by Friday. Disturbances rotating around this upper low to our north will continue to impact the Northland over the next 24 hours with chances for a few showers and thunderstorms tonight and again on Thursday, but rain coverage will likely remain isolated to widely scattered at best meaning that a lot of us will stay dry through Thursday.

Another warm day on the way for Thursday with highs in the 80s. Winds southwest 10 to 20 mph.

Note: An isolated strong to severe thunderstorm is possible Thursday afternoon in northern Minnesota, otherwise thunderstorms that develop tonight and Thursday should remain below severe levels with brief downpours, gusty winds and some lightning being the primary threats.

Here’s a look at a visible satellite loop from today, Wednesday, July 15, 2020.

Source: https://weather.cod.edu/

Not seeing a whole lot of change in the upper level pattern for the rest of this month. Looks like the upper Midwest will remain in a west or west-northwest flow aloft while broad subtropical ridging and intense heat remains mostly south of our area over the next 2 weeks, but the northern extent of this hot air dome could occasionally build far enough north into the Northland, however, if it does it shouldn’t stick around for long as the flow aloft looks rather progressive. Also, with the stronger winds aloft covering the northern U.S. this opens the doors for the possibility for a couple rounds of severe weather over the next 2 weeks if moisture, instability and wind shear come together as disturbances or frontal boundaries occasionally move through the area.

Source: 12z European ensemble model – 500mb Forecast valid from July 16 to July 30, 2020. https://weathermodels.com/

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A few showers and thunderstorms have been moving across northern Minnesota today, but this activity has and will continue to remain north of the Twin Ports this evening.

Radar loop from Wednesday, July 15, 2020

Loop time noon to 5:25 PM.

Source: https://weather.cod.edu/

Here are some rainfall totals from today, July 15, 2020 (thru 4 PM)

Source: https://mesowest.utah.edu/

International Falls, MN: 0.32″

Cook, MN: 0.21″

Bigfork, MN: 0.07″

Isabella, MN: 0.04″

18z HRRR model simulated radar forecast valid from 7 PM Wednesday to 7 PM Thursday.

Source: https://weathermodels.com/

Thanks for reading!

Tim

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