A few strong to severe thunderstorms are possible into this evening across northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin with a Slight Risk (yellow) and Marginal Risk (dark green) for severe thunderstorms in place over the entire Northland.
The main severe weather threats thru this evening are from damaging winds and large hail.
3:50 PM radar update – An area of rain with embedded thunder stretches from Grand Marais to north of Two Harbors and west to Babbitt, this area of rain is moving to the east.
Isolated stronger thunderstorms are starting to develop in north-central Minnesota as of 3:50 PM, and these storms may intensify over the next few hours as they move to the east-southeast.
Storm Prediction Center has issued a Mesoscale Discussion for possible severe weather development over northern Minnesota with a 40% chance for a watch issuance by 6 PM (pink outlined area on map)
A cold front is moving east into the Northland this afternoon with mild southwesterly winds ahead of this front which is helping to bring in some moisture, although not a lot as dew points are generally in the upper 50s and lower 60s this afternoon out ahead of this boundary with Precipitable water of around 1.00-1.10″.
CAPE is in the 1000-2000 J/kg range as of 3 PM per mesoanalysis which is enough for stronger storms.
Wind shear is on the high side today, but its mostly in the form of speed shear as winds increase with height. Generally around 30 knots at 850mb, and 40-50 knots at 500mb.
A few severe thunderstorms can’t be ruled out thru this evening in north-central and northeast Minnesota given the ingredients which are in place, and an isolated supercell is even possible with the amount of wind shear over the area late this afternoon.
Source: https://www.spc.noaa.gov/
19z HRRR model simulated radar forecast valid thru Midnight tonight.
Source: https://weathermodels.com/
Thanks for reading!
Tim
