1:32 PM CT – There is an Enhanced Risk for Severe Thunderstorms late this afternoon into this evening over eastern Minnesota and for parts of northwest Wisconsin, roughly from Aitkin to Mahtowa, east to Lake Nebagamon, then south to Cable and Winter, this includes the Hayward lakes area as well.
A Slight Risk for Severe Thunderstorms extends farther north including Brainerd, Hill City, Duluth and Two Harbors areas, and along the South Shore of Lake Superior in northwest Wisconsin.
Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms could redevelop late this afternoon into this evening from east-central Minnesota into northwest Wisconsin. Primary threats are from large hail and damaging winds, but an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out.
Stay Weather Aware!
Watches and warnings could be issued for some parts of the Northland later today.
Here’s today’s setup – A cold front moving east out of western Minnesota while an outflow boundary left behind after last night’s storms lifts slowly NNE out of southern Minnesota.
A very unstable air mass will be found near and south of the OFB (outflow boundary) with CAPE 4000-6000 J/kg by late this afternoon. There is uncertainty on how far north the OFB will get before it gets pinched off by the eastward advancing cold front, but it’s possible will see the OFB and extremely unstable air mass reach into far southern portions of the Northland by late this afternoon, say from around Pine City and Hinckley, east to Shell Lake and Hayward, this would be the area most at risk for severe storms later today or this evening the way it looks now.
Looks like we may see scattered thunderstorms develop in the 4-6 PM time frame across east-central Minnesota, those storms would then move east/northeast into northwest Wisconsin, and possibly into northeast Minnesota as well depending on how far north the storms develop later today.
Note: Timing for Duluth looks to be in the 7-10 PM window if we are impacted by these storms.
12z NAM 3km model simulated radar forecast valid from 4 PM today to 1 AM tonight.
Source: https://weathermodels.com/
17z HRRR model simulated radar forecast valid from 4 PM today to 1 AM tonight.
Thanks for reading!
Tim
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