Pleasant and less windy weather is expected across the Northland for Monday with highs mainly in the 70s.
Another low pressure system arrives Monday night into Tuesday bringing another round of rain to northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin. Model guidance shows potential for widespread half to one inch rainfall totals with this next system.
A risk for some severe weather also returns on Tuesday, but at the moment it looks like this risk area would be mostly south of the Northland based on the forecast track of the surface low and where the warm front is forecast to be Tuesday afternoon. Given the setup, an isolated tornado potential exists Tuesday afternoon/early Tuesday evening in parts of eastern and southeast Minnesota into western Wisconsin if enough instability can develop in the aforementioned areas.
*We continue to slowly erase the precipitation deficit for the year in Duluth, but we still have a ways to go before getting back to normal!
Note: Totals below are thru July 18th, 2020
Month to date rainfall total: 4.43″ (+2.03″ above normal)
Rainfall since June 1st: 5.12″ (-1.51″ below normal)
Precipitation since January 1st: 10.65″ (-4.90″ below normal)
Short term we’re doing much better, but longer term were still running ~5″ below normal for precipitation in Duluth.
Source: https://mrcc.illinois.edu/
July 2020 rainfall totals thru the 19th.
Total rainfall – Percent of mean for July 2020 thru the 19th.
Long range model guidance keeps a wet pattern in place across northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin over the next 2 weeks. It won’t rain every day, but we should continue to see occasional rain events over the next 2 weeks.
Source: 12z European ensemble model 7.19.2020; https://weathermodels.com/
Looks like we may see the pattern shift around a bit late this week as a stronger ridge redevelops across the Midwest, if this occurs, we could see heat and humidity return to the Northland beginning around July 24th, along with potential for some severe weather at times as clusters of storms develop while they track along the north side of the intense heat dome to our south. Stay tuned!
Source: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/
*July 2020 continues to be a warm month in Duluth – The average temperature for July 2020 thru the 18th was 72.6 degrees; +7.1 degrees above normal! The warmest July on record in Duluth was in 2006, tied in 2012 with an average monthly temperature of 71.9 degrees. Cooler temps the next few days will likely drop our average temperature a bit, but I still think July 2020 has a good chance at finishing somewhere in the top 5 warmest Julys on record in Duluth.
Quite the low pressure system passing north of Lake Superior today (almost fall like) Lots of wind across the Northland today to the SW of this system as winds have been gusting 25 to 45 mph today.
An impressive system north of Lake Superior today as seen on water vapor imagery – Loop time 10 AM to 4:40 PM CT, Sunday, July 19, 2020.
Source: https://weather.cod.edu/
Goes-16 sandwich satellite loop from Saturday, July 18, 2020 – Loop time starts just before 5 PM, ends just before Midnight.
An explosion of severe thunderstorms over parts of the upper Midwest Saturday evening!
Source: https://weather.cod.edu/forecast/
Here’s a little map I put together based on storm reports and radar imagery showing the approximate track and timing of Saturday evening’s supercell/bow echo thunderstorm which passed north and east of Duluth.
Note: The yellow outlined areas show where the most damage has been reported so far whether it be from wind or hail or a combination of the two, but areas outside the yellow outlined areas may have had some hail or wind as well.
A southern supercell Saturday evening impacted the areas outlined in white on the map below, but so far there haven’t been a whole lot of reports of wind or hail from that storm Saturday evening, I’m a little surprised about that considering how intense this storm looked on radar.
Areas from Mahtowa and Barnum, east to Holyoke, Foxboro, Patzau and Chaffey were impacted by this severe thunderstorm Saturday evening, and this storm also crossed over a portion of Interstate 35 in Minnesota, Highway 23 in Minnesota, and Highway 35 in far northwest Wisconsin.
Additional Storm Reports from around the Northland from July 18, 2020
Source: https://www.weather.gov/dlh/
11:08 PM: Thunderstorm Wind Damage. 4 W McGregor, MN (Aitkin County) Several large trees snapped off.
9:48 PM: Thunderstorm Wind Damage. 6 SW Stone Lake, WI (Washburn County) Boat and dock pushed against shore, tree damage.
9:21 PM: Thunderstorm Wind Damage. 3 SE Sand Bay, WI (Bayfield County) Numerous trees down on road, road sign post bent. A section of pine trees sheared off at the top.
9:17 PM: Thunderstorm Wind Damage. 3 N Red Cliff, WI (Bayfield County) Approximately a half mile of numerous trees blown down on Blueberry Road between Frog Bay and Emil Road.
9:14 PM: Thunderstorm Wind Damage. 1 SW Sand Bay, WI (Bayfield County) Widespread tree damage blocking roads and knocking down power lines, affecting Big Sandy Bay Road and Little Sand Bay Road.
9:05 PM: Thunderstorm Wind Damage. 3 NE Cornucopia, WI (Bayfield County) Hiking trail blocked due to downed trees.
8:05 PM: Thunderstorm Wind Damage. 11 NE Island Lake, MN (St. Louis County) Several large trees snapped off. Largest was a 14 inch spruce tree.
7:45 PM: Hail 1.00 inch (Quarter sized hail) 1 WNW Island Lake, MN (St. Louis County)
2:45 AM: Thunderstorm Wind Damage. 3 ENE Little Round Lake, WI (Sawyer County) Sporadic tree damage in area. 16-24 inch diameter pine and oak tree tops broken off 60 feet up. Falling tree tops cause roof and structure damage to cabin.
Thanks for reading!
Tim
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