Two EF-1 Tornadoes in northwest Wisconsin early Saturday morning (July 18th) Breezy and cool on Tuesday with some rain; turning warmer and more humid this weekend

Two EF-1 Tornadoes in northwest Wisconsin early Saturday morning.

Source: https://www.weather.gov/dlh/

Tornado #1 – Maple/Blueberry, Wisconsin

Rating: EF-1

Estimated Peak Wind: 100 mph

Path Length: 0.4 miles

Path Width: 50 yards

Start Date: July 18, 2020

Start Time: 1:48 AM CDT

Start Location: 2 miles north of Blueberry/Douglas county WI

End Date: July 18, 2020

End Time: 1:50 AM CDT

End Location: 2 miles north of Blueberry/Douglas county WI

Approximate location of the Blueberry/Maple, Wisconsin tornado early Saturday morning (black outlined area on map) This tornado touched down roughly 25 miles east of Superior.

Tornado #2 – Sanborn, Wisconsin (Town of White River)

Rating: EF-1

Estimated Peak Wind: 110 mph

Path Length: 0.6 miles

Path Width: 50 yards

Start Date: July 18, 2020

Start Time: 2:51 AM CDT

Start Location: 1 mile north-northwest of Sanborn/Ashland county WI

End Date: July 18, 2020

End Time: 2:53 AM CDT

End Location: 1 mile north of Sanborn/Ashland county WI

Approximate location of the Sanborn (Town of White River) tornado early Saturday morning (black outlined area on map)

The 2020 severe weather season across the Northland got off to a real slow start in April and May which carried over into much of June, but things have picked up considerably here in July – The calendar below shows the number of Severe Thunderstorm Warnings across the Northland which have been issued by the National Weather Service in Duluth, Minnesota from April 1st to July 20th, 2020.

Note: The most active day so far this year was on July 8th when the NWS in Duluth issued 24 severe thunderstorm warnings across their forecast area, 2nd most active day to date was on July 5th with 16 severe thunderstorm warnings, and the 3rd most active day to date was on July 18th with 12 severe thunderstorm warnings.

Source: https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/

This map shows all the severe thunderstorm warnings (polygons) which were issued in the NWS Duluth forecast area from July 17th thru July 19th, 2020, a pretty active stretch for severe weather.

Number of tornado warnings by county that were issued by the NWS in Duluth, MN between July 17-19, 2020. Note: Douglas and Burnett counties had the most with 3 tornado warnings.

Number of severe thunderstorm warnings by county that were issued by the NWS in Duluth, MN between July 17-19, 2020. Note: Cass county had the most with 8 warnings.

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-A wet, cool and breezy day on Tuesday as a low pressure system moves east-northeast out of western Minnesota. This system will have some autumn like characteristics, the main one being a stiff northeasterly wind coming down the big lake with potential for 20-30 mph wind gusts near Lake Superior on Tuesday.

-Rain is also expected over much of northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin on Tuesday with potential for some heavier pockets of rain embedded in a larger shield of lighter rain.

Note: Rain is forecast to begin in Duluth between 4-6 AM Tuesday with rain continuing most of the day, although some breaks in the rain could occur at times. Rain ends Tuesday night.

-Thunderstorm potential looks pretty low on Tuesday due to the clouds, rain and cool temperatures, but there is still a chance that we could see a few thunderstorms across the Northland, especially from north-central Minnesota into northwest Wisconsin.

-Highs on Tuesday are forecast to range from the upper 50s to lower 70s with the warmest temps found over southern areas, from Hinckley and Pine City, east to the Hayward lakes.

-Still looking at a warmer and more muggier weather pattern by this weekend with widespread 80s (possibly warmer) and dew points in the mid 60s to mid 70s. A few rounds of strong to severe thunderstorms may also impact parts of the Northland Friday through Sunday. Stay tuned!

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A trough approaching from the west will bring forcing into our area creating lift which will cause rain on Tuesday.

A look at the system which will impact our area on Tuesday as seen on Goes-16 water vapor imagery on Monday, July 20th, 2020.

Loop time 10 AM to 4:30 PM CDT.

Source: https://weather.cod.edu/

Overall the potential for severe weather is low on Tuesday, but if enough clearing/heating can occur to help build up some instability, then we could see a few strong to severe storms develop Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday evening in that yellow outlined area on the map with an isolated tornado threat along with wind and hail, this risk area should stay south of the Northland based on the forecast track of this system which keeps our area in the cool/stable air north of the low pressure track, but if this system lifts farther north, then a risk for a few strong storms could work their way into southern portions of the Northland (Hinckley to Hayward lakes line south) on Tuesday.

18z NAM 3km model simulated radar forecast valid from Midnight tonight to Midnight tomorrow night.

Source: https://weathermodels.com/

Rainfall forecast per blend of models ending late Tuesday night.

Potential for widespread half to one inch plus rain totals in northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin with lower totals expected in the Arrowhead where a quarter to half inch of rain is possible.

Source: https://lab.weathermodels.com/

Thanks for reading!

Tim

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