Very Muggy tonight; turning less humid Sunday afternoon

Dew point of 78 degrees at the Superior Airport at 5 PM today, this is about as humid as it’ll ever get around here. 75 degree dew point at Duluth Sky Harbor Airport, and a 72 degree dew point at the Duluth Airport late this Saturday afternoon, July 25, 2020.

It’s going to be another very muggy night across the Northland with dew points in the 70s this evening, and from the mid 60s to low 70s after Midnight, but relief from the tropical dew points is coming by Sunday afternoon as dew points fall from the 60s and 70s Sunday morning to the 40s and 50s by late Sunday afternoon. Note: This drier/less humid air mass will move from NW to SE across the Northland on Sunday, reaching northern Minnesota before Noon Sunday, and the Twin Ports around 2-4 PM Sunday.

One would think with all the heat and humidity in place that we’d be seeing widespread convection across the Northland today, but this just hasn’t been the case with this particular setup, things just didn’t line up for that to happen.

Note: Based on radar trends over the last hour or so it appears that most of the rain this evening will remain south and southeast of Duluth and Superior, but I can’t guarantee that we won’t see a pop-up shower or storm develop and hit the city due to all the humid, warm air over the area this afternoon, but chances that happens are on the low side.

Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue to develop at times tonight, mainly over northwest Wisconsin, extending back into east-central Minnesota. Storms over those areas will be capable of producing lightning and torrential downpours with a lesser risk for gusty winds and hail tonight.

Northern Minnesota should stay mostly dry tonight, although an isolated shower or storm can’t be ruled out.

Very warm tonight with lows in the mid 60s to mid 70s!

Isolated showers or thunderstorms are possible Sunday mainly from northeast and east-central Minnesota into northwest Wisconsin, otherwise dry with a mix of sun and clouds. Highs Sunday in the upper 70s to middle 80s.

18z HRRR model simulated radar forecast valid from 7 PM this evening to 7 PM Sunday.

Source: https://weathermodels.com/

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The best forcing with today’s system is passing well NW of our area across Saskatchewan into Manitoba where scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are occurring today, but those storms are lifting toward the NE.

Visible satellite loop from Saturday, July 25, 2020, end time ~4:10 PM CT.

Source: https://weather.cod.edu/

The actual cold front is still back over the Dakotas this afternoon but is moving to the east, this front should be moving through northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin Sunday morning through mid-afternoon Sunday.

As long as this front is off to our west there will be a chance for a few showers or thunderstorms due to the warm, muggy and unstable air mass out ahead of this front, but winds aloft aren’t very strong, and the amount of wind shear is on the lower side of things, so I’m not expecting much in the way of strong or severe storms in the Northland tonight or Sunday, but an isolated stronger storm is possible tonight mainly over northwest Wisconsin and far eastern Minnesota.

Source: https://www.spc.noaa.gov/

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Rainfall reports from Saturday, July 25, 2020

Source: https://mesowest.utah.edu/

Note: Totals listed below through 4 PM Saturday, July 25, 2020

Cass Lake, MN: 1.08″

Bigfork, MN: 0.74″

Cook, MN: 0.61″

Glidden, WI: 0.61″

Walker, MN: 0.38″

Eveleth-Virginia, MN: 0.36″

Hayward, WI: 0.36″

Orr, MN: 0.30″

Silver Bay, MN: 0.30″

Littlefork, MN: 0.25″

Chisholm-Hibbing Airport: 0.25″

Hill City, MN: 0.18″

International Falls, MN: 0.16″

Grand Marais, MN: 0.16″

Clam Lake, WI: 0.15″

Saginaw, MN: 0.08″

Ely, MN: 0.07″

Moose Lake, MN: 0.07″

Aitkin, MN: 0.06″

Superior Airport: 0.06″

Brainerd, MN: 0.04″

McGregor, MN: 0.03″

Duluth Airport: 0.03″

Today’s rainfall pattern is quite similar to the ones we’ve seen quite a bit this summer where the most significant rains fall in two areas, one across north-central Minnesota, and the other over portions of northwest Wisconsin, while in between not a whole heck of a lot of rain.

Thanks for reading!

Tim

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