Frost/Freeze potential the next few nights; rain chances late this week; warmer temps possible next week

A ton of weather to talk about ranging from fires and record heat to snow and record cold, oh and also some frost/freeze stuff as well – I’ll break it all down the best I can.

…Frost/Freeze Information…

-Frost Advisory in effect from Midnight tonight to 8 AM Tuesday including the cities of International Falls, Bigfork, Grand Rapids, Walker, Hill City, Moose Lake, Cloquet, Duluth, Hibbing, Cook, Ely, Two Harbors, Silver Bay, Isabella and Grand Marais.

Temperatures of around 33 to 36 degrees are expected late tonight into early Tuesday morning which will result in areas of frost.

Frost could kill sensitive outdoor vegetation if left uncovered.

-Freeze Watch is in effect from late Tuesday night through Wednesday morning for portions of the Northland, including the cities of Brainerd, Walker, Cass Lake, Hill City, Grand Rapids, Bigfork, International Falls, Hibbing, Ely, Cook and Isabella.

Temperatures of around 28 to 32 degrees are possible in the freeze watch area late Tuesday night through Wednesday morning.

Frost and freeze conditions could kill crops, other sensitive vegetation and possibly damage unprotected outdoor plumbing.

Note: I think locations immediately close to Lake Superior (roughly 10 miles or so) will be frost-free tonight and again Tuesday night, this will also be the case for most of northwest Wisconsin where lingering cloud cover should help to keep temperatures ‘slightly’ warmer, or at least warm enough to prevent frost from forming tonight and again Tuesday night.

Source: https://www.weather.gov/dlh/

…Temperature Changes…

Cold air surging south today!

Source: RTMA model; https://lab.weathermodels.com/

Temperatures over parts of the Northern Rockies and Northern Plains this Monday afternoon are running 30 to 35 degrees below normal for early September.

Note: High temps in the Northland for Tuesday and Wednesday look to mainly be in the 50s, quite similar to what we saw for highs on Monday.

Source: RTMA model

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…Late Week Rain Chances…

A strong upper level low pressure system will dig south into the Central and Southern Rockies thru Wednesday. This system begins to lift toward the ENE from late Thursday thru Saturday – This system could impact our weather from late Friday into Saturday, and that is when we could see a more widespread light to moderate rain event affect some parts of the Northland. Stay tuned.

500mb Forecast valid from 7 AM Tuesday, September 8 to 7 AM Sunday, September 13, 2020.

Source: 12z European ensemble model 9.8.2020; https://weathermodels.com/

A few showers are possible thru Wednesday around the Hayward Lakes area in northwest Wisconsin, and possibly near some of the larger inland lakes where a few lake effect showers could develop into midweek, but most of the rainfall in the black outlined area on the map comes late Friday thru Saturday the way it looks now.

Source: https://lab.weathermodels.com/

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…Fire Information…

Source: https://weather.cod.edu/

A loop of the image above – Loop time ~Noon to 4:10 PM CDT, Monday, September 7, 2020.

Note: As winds shift out of the NNE we could see the fires/smoke plumes over the western U.S. shift directions a bit over the next day or so.

Numerous fires are ongoing across the western U.S. today.

At one point late Sunday afternoon I counted at least 16 active fires burning on Goes-16 imagery in the states of Idaho, Montana, Wyoming, Colorado, California and Washington State (I likely missed a few)

Here’s the massive fire which continues to burn in far northern Colorado today which shows up nicely on Goes-16 Natural Color – Fire Imagery. Note: Hot spots show up in red.

Loop time: ~2 to 4 PM CDT, Monday, September 7, 2020.

Source: https://weather.cod.edu/

And here’s how the massive fires look in California this afternoon on Goes-16 Natural Color – Fire Imagery, and again hot spots show up as red dots on the loop.

Loop time: ~2 to 4 PM CDT, Monday, September 7, 2020.

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…Snow…

Here’s a simulated radar forecast from 7 PM Monday to 7 PM Wednesday.

Snow in blue, rain in green and a mix bag of precip types in pink.

Note: Most of the wintry precipitation falls late tonight into Wednesday morning, then this system will mostly be a rain event as temps warm just a bit.

Source: 18z NAM 3km model 9.7.2020; https://weathermodels.com/

Snowfall forecast ending 7 AM Thursday, September 10, 2020.

Source: https://lab.weathermodels.com/

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Temperatures will remain below normal this week across the Northland, but long range weather models are hinting at a milder weather pattern for next week which could lead to near normal and even slightly warmer than normal temperatures returning to the Northland for the week of September 13th.

Source: 12z European ensemble model 9.7.2020; https://weathermodels.com/

Thanks for reading!

Tim

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