Another frosty night ahead; rain and some smoke possible Friday night and Saturday

-Freeze Warning in effect from Midnight tonight to 8 AM Thursday including the cities of Aitkin, McGregor, Hill City, Hinckley, Moose Lake, Cloquet, Duluth, Hibbing, Isabella, Superior, Solon Springs, Webster, Grantsburg and Siren.

Sub-freezing temperatures as low as 30 degrees expected. Frost and freeze conditions will kill crops, other sensitive vegetation and possibly damage unprotected outdoor plumbing.

-Frost Advisory in effect from Midnight tonight to 8 AM Thursday including the cities of International Falls, Bigfork, Grand Rapids, Walker, Brainerd, Ely, Two Harbors, Silver Bay, Grand Marais, Washburn, Bayfield, Ashland, Hurley, Minong, Shell Lake, Spooner, Hayward and Winter.

Temperatures of 32 to 34 degrees will result in frost formation. Frost could kill sensitive outdoor vegetation if left uncovered.

Source: https://www.weather.gov/dlh/

A widespread frost and freeze is likely once again over most of the Northland from late tonight into early Thursday morning. Chances for frost/freeze conditions remain greatest inland from Lake Superior by ~10 miles, but even lakeside locations could see some patchy frost early Thursday morning.

Some parts of northeast Minnesota have already seen their first 28 F freeze of the season indicated by the dark blue color on the map.

Source: https://mrcc.illinois.edu/

Average dates for first 28 F freeze

September 21-30 (light blue) and early to mid October in the green colors.

Note: Some parts of northeast Minnesota saw their first 28 F freeze this season occur roughly 2 to 4 weeks earlier than normal.

Duluth’s average date for first 28 F freeze is in the October 1st to October 10th time frame. In 2019, the first 28 F freeze occurred on October 29th.

Map showing where the first 32 F freeze has already occurred this season indicated by the blue and purple colors on the map.

Average dates for first 32 F freeze of the season

Darker blue: September 11-20

Light blue: September 21-30

Dark green: October 1-10

Note: Duluth’s average date for first 32 F freeze is between September 21st and September 30th. In 2019, the first 32 F freeze occurred on October 24th.

Low Temperature Reports from Wednesday morning, September 9, 2020

Source: https://www.weather.gov/dlh/

Margie, MN: 25 F
Babbitt, MN: 26 F
Cotton, MN: 27 F
Embarrass, MN: 27 F
Ely, MN: 27 F
Orr, MN: 27 F
Crane Lake, MN: 27 F
Bigfork, MN: 27 F
2 E Celina, MN: 27 F
2 S Tower, MN: 27 F
Cook, MN: 28 F
International Falls, MN: 28 F
Hibbing, MN: 28 F
Aitkin, MN: 28 F
Floodwood, MN: 28 F
Eveleth, MN: 29 F
Ashland, WI: 30 F
Silver Bay, MN: 30 F
Solon Springs, WI: 30 F
Cass Lake, MN: 30 F
Walker, MN: 31 F
Superior Airport: 31 F
3 E Wright, MN: 31 F
Brainerd, MN: 32 F
Grand Marais Airport: 32 F
Longville, MN: 32 F
Pine River, MN: 32 F
Moose Lake, MN: 32 F
McGregor, MN: 32 F
Grand Rapids, MN: 33 F
Siren, WI: 33 F
Two Harbors, MN: 34 F
Hayward, WI: 35 F
Cloquet, MN: 36 F
Duluth Airport: 37 F
Hinckley, MN: 37 F
Hurley, WI: 37 F
4 W Clam Lake, WI: 38 F
Duluth Harbor: 39 F
Winter, WI: 39 F

Note: A new record low temperature was set for September 9th at Brainerd, Minnesota with a low this morning of 32 degrees. The previous record was 33 degrees set in 1924.

High Temperatures from Tuesday, September 8th, 2020, and their rankings for September 8th.

Hibbing: 52 degrees (2nd coldest on record) Record cold high is 50 degrees set in 1941.

International Falls: 55 degrees (3rd coldest on record) Record cold high is 53 degrees set in 1984.

Ashland: 52 degrees, tied their record cold high for the date which was set in 1929.

Brainerd: 52 degrees, tied their record cold high for the date which was set in 1946.

Low temperatures from Tuesday, September 8th, 2020, and their rankings for September 8th.

Brainerd: 34 degrees (2nd coldest on record) Record low is 31 degrees set in 1975.

Hibbing: 31 degrees (2nd coldest on record) Record low is 29 degrees set in 2006.

Duluth Airport: 36 degrees (3rd coldest on record) Record low is 32 degrees set in 1956.

International Falls: 32 degrees (4th coldest on record) Record low is 29 degrees set in 1956.

Ashland: 33 degrees (5th coldest on record) Record low is 30 degrees set in 1956 and 1914.

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An unseasonably chilly air mass remains over the upper Midwest today. Check out these temperatures from Wednesday afternoon. A swath from south-central Minnesota into northeast Wisconsin are only in the low to mid 40s this afternoon thanks to some rain.

Temps in the Northland will be warming up just a bit over the next few days with highs on Thursday and Friday in the upper 50s to middle 60s. Note: Normal highs in the Northland in mid-September are mostly in the upper 60s.

We do have a few chances of hitting 70 degrees or warmer on a few days next week.

Source: https://lab.weathermodels.com/

Temperatures this Wednesday afternoon are running anywhere from 15 to 50 degrees colder than normal across a large portion from the Rockies and Plains into the upper Midwest and Western Great Lakes (greatest departures from normal in darker blue and purple colors on the map)

Some light rain has been moving through southeast portions of northwest Wisconsin this afternoon with a few more showers scattered about along the South Shore of Lake Superior – All this rain should come to an end this evening.

A few rainfall reports from today, September 9th, 2020

Source: https://mesowest.utah.edu/

Glidden, WI: 0.15″

Barnes, WI: 0.13″

Clam Lake, WI: 0.09″

Hayward, WI: 0.03″

Minong, WI: 0.01″

Source: https://weather.cod.edu/

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Thursday and Friday look dry in northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin, but some rain is possible Friday night into Saturday as a system currently over the southwest US heads NE into the upper Midwest.

Source: Goes-16 water vapor loop from Wednesday, September 9, 2020; https://weather.cod.edu/

500mb forecast valid from 7 PM Wednesday to 7 PM Saturday shows the progression of the system over the southwest US. This system is expected to move through Minnesota on Saturday, exiting off to the east by Saturday night the way it looks now.

Source: 12z NAM model 9.9.2020; https://weather.cod.edu/

Another interesting part to the forecast for Friday night and Saturday is the potential for a plume of smoke to push NE as low pressure lifts out of the Rockies and into the upper Midwest late this week. Note: The rain that is forecast to fall Friday night into Saturday may help to mix out most of this smoke, so no real impacts are expected at this time outside of maybe a hint of a smell of smoke at times.

Source: 18z HRRR model 9.9.2020; https://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/

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Massive fires continue today over parts of the western US as seen on Goes-16 Natural Color-Fire satellite imagery. Note: Hot spots show up in red/pink colors on the images below.

Source: https://weather.cod.edu/

Here’s a Mesoscale satellite loop from Wednesday afternoon showing the widespread thick smoke storm affecting western Oregon and most of California, but with easterly winds this smoke is also getting pushed out over the Pacific Ocean for a second day in a row.

An early season winter storm brought quite a bit of snow to the Rockies over the past few days.

Source: https://www.pivotalweather.com/

Thanks for reading!

Tim

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