Frost/Freeze late tonight; pleasant weather Friday; some rain and patchy smoke/haze late Friday night into Saturday

-Freeze Warning in effect from 11 PM this evening to 9 AM Friday including the following cities: Hibbing, Grand Rapids, Hill City, Duluth, Cloquet, Moose Lake, Hinckley, Superior, Solon Springs, Minong, Webster, Siren, Danbury, Grantsburg, Spooner, Shell Lake, Hayward, Winter, Washburn, Bayfield, Ashland and Hurley.

Sub-freezing temperatures as low as 29 degrees expected. Frost and freeze conditions will kill crops, other sensitive vegetation and possibly damage unprotected outdoor plumbing.

-Frost Advisory in effect from 11 PM this evening to 9 AM Friday including the following cities: International Falls, Ely, Isabella, Two Harbors, Silver Bay, Grand Marais, Bigfork, Walker, Brainerd and Aitkin.

Temperatures as low as 33 degrees will result in frost formation. Frost could kill sensitive outdoor vegetation if left uncovered.

Source: https://www.weather.gov/dlh/

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A bit warmer today compared to the last few days with Thursday afternoon temperatures in the Northland generally in the lower to middle 60s which is still roughly 5 degrees below normal for mid-September, but overall not bad compared to the last few days.

Highs on Friday should mainly be in the 60s, but then temps trend cooler on Saturday due to the clouds and some rain, highs in the 50s and lower 60s on Saturday.

Warmer temperatures in the 70s were found further off to our northwest today, but unfortunately those 70s won’t be making it into our area at least through the weekend, but we could see 1 or 2 days next week with highs close to 70 or into the 70s, the most likely day/s for that to happen would be next Tuesday and or Wednesday.

Source: https://lab.weathermodels.com/

A rather strong mid to upper level low pressure system continues to spin slowly ENE into Colorado today. This system will track northeast into the upper Midwest Friday night into Saturday, but it won’t stick around long as it gets picked up by stronger winds aloft (jet stream) once it reaches the upper Midwest on Saturday.

Source: Goes-16 water vapor loop from Thursday, September 10, 2020; https://weather.cod.edu/

Here’s the rainfall forecast for Friday night and Saturday.

Looks like a good portion of the Northland will get at least a half inch of rain out of this system, but higher amounts approaching an inch are possible along and east of a line from around Siren to Ashland. The least amount of rain looks like it will be over far northwest portions of the Northland, around the International Falls area where rain totals of around a tenth of an inch or less are expected.

As for the timing of this rain for Duluth and Superior: Looks dry through the day Friday and thru most of Friday evening. Rain is expected to move in from the southwest late Friday night-early Saturday morning (11 PM to 1 AM time frame) Some rain is expected to continue thru most of the day Saturday, then the rain ends Saturday night. Sunday looks dry.

Source: https://lab.weathermodels.com/

This is pretty wild!

It still looks like will see some smoke lift northeast into Minnesota Friday and Saturday due to the system coming out of Colorado. The wind field around this low will allow some smoke to get carried NE ahead of the low, then on the backside of the low will see some smoke move toward the west and south. This smoke is expected to remain in the mid to upper levels of the atmosphere with no real impacts expected near the surface, so the main issue could be some haze due to the smoke, and perhaps a vibrant sunset Friday evening (if it doesn’t get cloudy by then)

Source: 12z HRRR model 9.10.2020; https://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/

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Low Temperature Reports from Thursday morning, September 10, 2020

Source: https://www.weather.gov/dlh/

Hibbing, MN: 27 F
Silver Bay, MN: 27 F
Aitkin, MN: 27 F
2 E Celina, MN: 27 F
Babbitt, MN: 27 F
Cotton, MN: 27 F
Embarrass, MN: 27 F
International Falls, MN: 28 F
Two Harbors, MN: 28 F
Grand Marais Airport: 28 F
Eveleth, MN: 28 F
Siren, WI: 29 F
Brainerd, MN: 30 F
Floodwood, MN: 30 F
Ely, MN: 30 F
Cook, MN: 30 F
Crane Lake, MN: 30 F
Bigfork, MN: 30 F
McGregor, MN: 30 F
Ashland, WI: 31 F
Hayward, WI: 31 F
Butternut, WI: 31 F
4 W Clam Lake, WI: 31 F
Cloquet, MN: 32 F
Solon Springs, WI: 32 F
Hurley, WI: 32 F
South Range, WI: 32 F
Duluth Airport: 34 F
Moose Lake, MN: 34
Hinckley, MN: 34 F
Duluth Harbor: 39 F
Low Temperatures on September 9th, 2020 and their rankings for September 9th.

International Falls, MN: 28 degrees (2nd coldest on record) Record low for September 9th is 25 degrees set in 2006.

Ashland, WI; 30 degrees (4th coldest on record) Record low for September 9th is 27 degrees set in 1956.

Hibbing, MN: 28 degrees (2nd coldest on record) Record low for September 9th is 23 degrees set in 2006.

High Temperatures on September 9th, 2020, and their rankings for September 9th.

Ashland, WI: 52 degrees, a new record cold high temperature for the date. The previous record was 54 degrees set in 1954.

Brainerd, MN: 53 degrees (3rd coldest on record) Record cold high for September 9th is 50 degrees set in 1929.

Hibbing, MN: 56 degrees (5th coldest on record) Record cold high for September 9th is 51 degrees set in 1999.
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Latest Drought Monitor as of September 8th, 2020

Source: https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/

7% of Minnesota is in Moderate or D1 Drought, this is down from 8% last week.

26% of Minnesota is Abnormally Dry, this is about the same as last week.

Note: 14.54″ of precipitation has fallen so far this year at Duluth, Minnesota, this is -7.40″ below normal thru September 9th, so we continue to run about 2 months worth of precipitation below normal for 2020.

16% of Wisconsin is Abnormally Dry which is up from 10% last week.

Goes-16 satellite loop showing the widespread thick smoke which continues to blanket most of California today, and this smoke plume extends north into western Oregon, southwest Washington state and out over the Pacific Ocean, wild and scary stuff.

Source: https://weather.cod.edu/

Thanks for reading!

Tim

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